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Severe Weather Threat - December 12-14, 2022
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
TornadoFan
Member
Looks like a TOG west of Eglin AFB.
EDIT: Too close to the radar to really tell.
EDIT: Too close to the radar to really tell.
TornadoFan
Member
Strong couplet passing close to the Tallahassee radar.
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NWS says radar confirmed again, but it's so close to the radar site I can't make out anything.
TornadoFan
Member
The cell behind it has a decent hook on it too, but it's too noisy to make out anything.
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Although I think the main event is probably over, still watching the cells headed for Mexico Beach, FL and one near Coffee Springs, AL headed for the MD 2039 area.
edit: Aaand TOR on the Coffee Springs cell
edit: Aaand TOR on the Coffee Springs cell
akt1985
Member
Will the low-level jet be a factor tonight like it was last night?
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Weak low level lapse rates should keep most of the remaining discrete cells at bay by this point, although there still exists a corridor for favorable tornado potential in extreme SE AL/SW GA and the FL panhandle.
Looking at the NOLA metro tornado damage photos. From what I’m seeing, this one doesn’t look like it was as intense as the one back in March. Haven’t seen anything higher than EF2 so far, but that could change as more of the damage is photographed.
EDIT: Actually, this leveled metal industrial building in Arabi may indeed meet the marginal EF3 criteria. We’ll have to see what the survey finds. Regardless, still nothing close to the high-end EF3 damage from the March event.
EDIT: Actually, this leveled metal industrial building in Arabi may indeed meet the marginal EF3 criteria. We’ll have to see what the survey finds. Regardless, still nothing close to the high-end EF3 damage from the March event.
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xJownage
Member
Brings up an interesting point. I have some research to do, but I have a couple starting theories:
1. SFC wind veering close to the front...the 850 LLJ was almost due south yesterday. any SFC veering would result in negative SRH in the column right next to the surface, which could've tanked the tornado threat. This is one that I just can't verify, however.
2. Extremely low DCAPE. DCAPE IVO these storms were as low as 300-400 J/kg. Considering the moderate instability we had, and strong SR inflow, it's very possible that it was just hard for these supercells to produce enough RFD
Truthfully, #1 would be the factor that would "explain" this in the way that makes the most sense, but that seems to rarely be the case when it comes to weather.
What do you guys think?
Honestly, I don’t even want to imagine what would have unfolded yesterday if even half of the couplets dropped tornadoes. It was bad enough, despite the fact that a relatively small percentage of the circulations actually produced.
Conversely, you have events like February 23, 2016 or May 30, 2022, where the circulations/couplets on radar did not seem strong or organized, yet multiple strong tornadoes occurred.
Conversely, you have events like February 23, 2016 or May 30, 2022, where the circulations/couplets on radar did not seem strong or organized, yet multiple strong tornadoes occurred.
Lake Martin EF4
Member
Have you seen any plausibly violent damage from any tornadoes in the last two days?
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CheeselandSkies
Member
That's interesting, since excessive DCAPE was one of the reasons posited for 11/29 being relatively tame considering what could have happened (not to dismiss what did happen then or yesterday by any means) Honestly I think it's beyond limits of even the latest/best modeling and smartest forecasters to confidently identify and predict what separates tornado setups like yesterday and 11/29 from, say, 12/10/21. The critical factors that determine supercell behavior in what at face value are equally conducive environments seem to occur on space and time scales too fine to accurately resolve. Clearly, CAPE/shear/STP are not the be-all/end-all.
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xJownage
Member
Here's the image I took and what I saw. Very low values could've made downdraft production very weak. I mentioned before that we had something similar on a supercell in C OK on 5/2.
That being said this may not be the solution either. I'm really interested in what Fred has to say about this, because I think the other point about veering SFC winds has a lot of merit if it can be proven. Negative SRH right at the surface would still allow the low-level environment to be very favorable for long-track mesocyclones but shunt tornadogenesis.
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If this cell at the base of the line continues to get its act together, it may need a TOR.
warneagle
Member
Arabi is turning into the Moore of Louisiana.
Shakespeare 2016
Member
I am not exactly sure but I think I may have seen high-end EF3 tornado damage. Sorry about the caps but I have gotten in the habit of using them in other conversations.
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Geez, this thing doesn't know when to give up! Despite the marginal environment it seems hell-bent on producing something...
