Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

[Tomcats Forever!]

I mean this is a joke... some of the most favourable wind profiles I have ever seen in the path of a modelled discrete supercell. I am seriously worried.
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What am I missing there why those have TOR instead of PDS TOR as the hazard type?

 

[Tennie]

What am I missing there why those have TOR instead of PDS TOR as the hazard type?

The "Possible Hazard Type" window uses a set of criteria to identify, well, possible hazards. Here's a pic from the official paper about SHARPpy:



Note that, if certain parameters don't meet/exceed all listed criteria for a given hazard type, it'll move on to determine if they meet the next type on the list.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Returns are popping up in this region now.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Mesoanalysis shows an amazing atmospheric playing field ready to go to town.

 

[bwalk]

The two soundings you linked have some of the craziest hodos I’ve seen. Man. I am hoping things don’t pan out as modeled…

I agree. I almost want to frame that one hodo you posted. I do notice the critical angle is 70 vs. the more desired 90-degrees neighborhood. But the shape of this hodo & accompanying wind profiles it represents is classic.

 

[TornadoFan]

Wonder why the tornado watch only covers a small part of the MDT risk area.

 

[Bevo]

Things starting to pop off down here in Dallas.

 

[Tennie]

View attachment 13393
Things starting to pop off down here in Dallas.

Hopefully any rotation stays elevated...

 

[TH2002]

Wonder why the tornado watch only covers a small part of the MDT risk area.

60/40 probabilities, so I assume that watch is for the initial storms before they reach peak intensity, or covers the area where more linear storm development is expected.

 

[Brice Wood]

Is there a real chance for them to issue a PDS watch for the rest of the MDT area?

 

[Austin Dawg]

The Southern end of this complex in Texas is not really producing. It's a shame because we could use the rain.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Bevo]

The Southern end of this complex in Texas is not really producing. It's a shame because we could use the rain.

View attachment 13394

Cell north of Killeen just went tornado warned.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I am seeing a lot of 67F-73F temps and dews of 58F to 63F throughout quite a bit of Iowa.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

In Spencer, IA in the northwest part of the state the temperature is 61 degrees and in the southwest part of the state in Logan, IA the temperature is 91 degrees.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Bleh, looks like we are going to have poor radar coverage for these storms.

 

[TH2002]

Speaking of PDS watches and warnings, the GFS seems to agree with the HRRR about the evolution of a single monster supercell in central IA and this is what its forecasted sounding has to say...

 

[Austin Dawg]

Cell north of Killeen just went tornado warned.

 

[Tennie]

Possible CC drop on the cell north of Killeen, TX.