Severe WX March 21-23 2022

[JBishopwx]

They also noted the Kemper County storm is an EF-3

 

[eric11]

Btw, was the NWS Austin/San Antonio still kept the Taylor/Round Rock tornado as an 135mph EF2? Regardless of the anchoring and building problem, there's no way to rate damage like this under EF3. Are we dealing with another "Bowling Green Syndrome"?

 

[TH2002]

Btw, was the NWS Austin/San Antonio still kept the Taylor/Round Rock tornado as an 135mph EF2? Regardless of the anchoring and building problem, there's no way to rate damage like this under EF3. Are we dealing with another "Bowling Green Syndrome"?
View attachment 12837

Insurance premiums.

 

[MattPetrulli]

I believe this was from the first discrete cell that formed ahead of the line. Really looks like that 15% verified and more reports are gonna fill in.

 

[Equus]

Map getting crowded

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Map getting crowded

View attachment 12838

Still, there's that gap across south MS and most of LA (New Orleans storm aside, of course), a much larger portion of the latter state was within the 15% hatched. The event didn't play out as a worst-case scenario (again other than the New Orleans storm, but I thought a lot more metro areas like Hattiesburg, Jackson and Meridian were in line for potentially EF3+ long-track tornadoes if those discrete cells had been able to get going a little sooner), but certainly a plenty hefty severe weather outbreak.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Still, there's that gap across south MS and most of LA (New Orleans storm aside, of course), a much larger portion of the latter state was within the 15% hatched. The event didn't play out as a worst-case scenario (again other than the New Orleans storm, but I thought a lot more metro areas like Hattiesburg, Jackson and Meridian were in line for potentially EF3+ long-track tornadoes if those discrete cells had been able to get going a little sooner), but certainly a plenty hefty severe weather outbreak.

Fair point but when has an high end event played out in worse case scenario past few years besides 12/10/21? A lot of events don't really realize their full potential and we've gotten super lucky over past few years.

 

[brianc33710]

Fair point but when has an high end event played out in worse case scenario past few years besides 12/10/21? A lot of events don't really realize their full potential and we've gotten super lucky over past few years.

Yeah 17 & 25 March 2021 around Birmingham were both mitigated to a point by morning/early afternoon convection that led to flash flooding but also prevented what was already a bad situation from being any worse.

As for NOLA, someone in another forum made a point. Many residences down there are built in ways to avoid flooding but aren't designed to deal with tornadoes.

 

[buckeye05]

Fair point but when has an high end event played out in worse case scenario past few years besides 12/10/21? A lot of events don't really realize their full potential and we've gotten super lucky over past few years.

I’d say the Easter 2020 outbreak (Bassfield) reached its full ceiling of potential. Wasn’t as bad as 12/10/2021 but was definitely a devastating higher-end outbreak.

 

[pohnpei]

I’d say the Easter 2020 outbreak (Bassfield) reached its full ceiling of potential. Wasn’t as bad as 12/10/2021 but was definitely a devastating higher-end outbreak.

Grazulis regarded Easter outbreak as No.7 of all tornado outbreaks since 1950.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Still, there's that gap across south MS and most of LA (New Orleans storm aside, of course), a much larger portion of the latter state was within the 15% hatched. The event didn't play out as a worst-case scenario (again other than the New Orleans storm, but I thought a lot more metro areas like Hattiesburg, Jackson and Meridian were in line for potentially EF3+ long-track tornadoes if those discrete cells had been able to get going a little sooner), but certainly a plenty hefty severe weather outbreak.

Fair point but when has an high end event played out in worse case scenario past few years besides 12/10/21? A lot of events don't really realize their full potential and we've gotten super lucky over past few years.

Why have so many events, other than a few exceptions, underperformed over the past year despite the -ENSO/-PDO combination?

 

[Tennie]

Why have so many events, other than a few exceptions, underperformed over the past year despite the -ENSO/-PDO combination?

There are a ridiculous number of variables at play at all scales, and sometimes things might not quite come together just right. That's the best guess I can personally make at this time, and it's more of a generalization really. Unfortunately, there's still a lot that we currently still don't really know about tornadoes in general, and nature doesn't give up its secrets easily. We've made a lot of quite notable progress, certainly (and thankfully), but it's clear that we still have a long way to go (and that's assuming we'll ever actually get there...).

 

[Casuarina Head]

There are a ridiculous number of variables at play at all scales, and sometimes things might not quite come together just right. That's the best guess I can personally make at this time, and it's more of a generalization really. Unfortunately, there's still a lot that we currently still don't really know about tornadoes in general, and nature doesn't give up its secrets easily. We've made a lot of quite notable progress, certainly (and thankfully), but it's clear that we still have a long way to go (and that's assuming we'll ever actually get there...).

I am referring to the fact that I would have expected more high-end events thus far in light of the near-record-breaking -PDO and a moderate to strong -ENSO.

 

[Fred Gossage]

I am referring to the fact that I would have expected more high-end events thus far in light of the near-record-breaking -PDO and a moderate to strong -ENSO.

We are just now getting into the heart of the spring tornado season that is directly following that near-record-breaking negative PDO. Despite this being a second-year La Nina, the pattern is behaving more like a first-year event in that much of the winter featured a colder weather pattern instead of being loaded with frequent tornadoes, and now the severe weather season is waking up. With all due respect, please sit down.

 

[MattPetrulli]

I am referring to the fact that I would have expected more high-end events thus far in light of the near-record-breaking -PDO and a moderate to strong -ENSO.

Don't get me wrong, we've definitely had high-end events over the past few years. The past event over last few days and the Iowa outbreak were somewhat higher end, so don't get it conflicted.

I’d say the Easter 2020 outbreak (Bassfield) reached its full ceiling of potential. Wasn’t as bad as 12/10/2021 but was definitely a devastating higher-end outbreak.

I was gonna say Easter 2020 (as big as it was) didn't reach its ceiling but an outbreak full of only discrete supercells wasn't ever really a realistic possibility with that setup so that probably hit its ceiling.

 

[TornadoFan]

New Orleans tornado is a high-end EF-3.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

New Orleans tornado is a high-end EF-3.

I believe that officially makes it stronger than the February 2017 EF3, which IIRC was pegged at 150 MPH.

 

[Equus]

Very long detailed reasoning and explanation of source of highest rating, love to see it

 

[buckeye05]

Very long detailed reasoning and explanation of source of highest rating, love to see it

That’s how it should be done. The public wants to know this kind of information, and it clears up any doubts about the rating.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

That’s how it should be done. The public wants to know this kind of information, and it clears up any doubts about the rating.

It is ok but I think they could have went with a 170 mph EF4. That is only 10 mph which really isn't nothing. Despite a house being a CMU foundation it seems like a number of straps were used to tie it down. This tornado certainly was more intense than the Newnan tornado from last year which received a low-end EF4 rating which is questionable to me because of weak attachments to the foundation. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202203241635-KLIX-NOUS44-PNSLIX