Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

[Casuarina Head]

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

I'm confused about the Tri-State tornado part of the tweet. Is he saying he believes the 219 mile path length is the true path length of the Tri-State tornado or is he saying it is not?

 

[andyhb]

I think now would be a good time to mention that we're still missing many, many DIs along this path, including but not limited to that group of houses SW of Mayfield along Pritchett Road, the entire subdivision surrounding the Princeton GC, the blanket DIs applied in Cambridge Springs and to the east of the lakes, and several buildings in downtown Mayfield including the First Presbyterian Church.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I think now would be a good time to mention that we're still missing many, many DIs along this path, including but not limited to that group of houses SW of Mayfield along Pritchett Road, the entire subdivision surrounding the Princeton GC, the blanket DIs applied in Cambridge Springs and to the east of the lakes, and several buildings in downtown Mayfield including the First Presbyterian Church.

I seen that too and I am baffled.

 

[locomusic01]

I'm confused about the Tri-State tornado part of the tweet. Is he saying he believes the 219 mile path length is the true path length of the Tri-State tornado or is he saying it is not?

He can be a bit opaque sometimes, but I think what he means is that the "official" length will always be 219 miles even though we now have reason to believe it may be wrong. Which is to say, we know the historical record is busted and we probably won't ever fix it. That's my interpretation, at least.

Not totally sure how that's meant to be relevant to the rest of the tweet, but it's certainly true. Maybe the implication is that the path length of the Mayfield tornado would potentially rival the real length of the Tri-State, if we knew it for certain? I dunno. In any case, it's definitely in the same neighborhood if we assume that one or more of the potential gaps in the Missouri section of the path represent actual breaks.

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

He can be a bit opaque sometimes, but I think what he means is that the "official" length will always be 219 miles even though we now have reason to believe it may be wrong. Which is to say, we know the historical record is busted and we probably won't ever fix it. That's my interpretation, at least.

Not totally sure how that's meant to be relevant to the rest of the tweet, but it's certainly true. Maybe the implication is that the path length of the Mayfield tornado would potentially rival the real length of the Tri-State, if we knew it for certain? I dunno. In any case, it's definitely in the same neighborhood if we assume that one or more of the potential gaps in the Missouri section of the path represent actual breaks.

The one paper said the path length of Tri-State tornado was 150-170 miles so maybe that is why what he is referring too.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The cycle between the two long-track violent tornadoes in Obion County, TN was very quick and the storm was producing smaller tornadoes during the "gap," so it's the kind of thing that could very easily have been missed in 1925.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

 

[pohnpei]

The path of Mayfield tornado can still be a small little bit longer than 165.7miles. The overall sustained time given by NWS was 178 mins and the continues TDS sustained stage was 180mins. Typically, the sustained time of a tornado would be a little bit longer than TDS sustained time. The last damage point of the tornado was a dock West of Rough River Lake. EF0 damage occurred there with about 200-300 boats damaged. The path may continued into the lake a little bit. The full three hour maintaining time can be expected.

 

[pohnpei]

I don't know If this was posted before. Inside tornado footage footage from Bremen area. Looks like on the edge of the tornado?(can't tell exactly) Definitely worthnoticing footage.

The rough place of this footage. It was on the West side of Blacklake Road in Bremen on the south edge of the tornado. Tornado likely already weakened from peak intensity but still a violent tornado and the place around this footage sustained EF0 damage. Had this tornado went into Bremen directly, the death toll would be almost certainly higher.

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

Aerial imagery of Dawson Springs.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

FWIW, I notice that Mayfield etc (or as they call it, the "2021 Western Kentucky Tornado") isn't yet on Wikipedia's list of controversial possible EF5s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_F5_and_EF5_tornadoes#Possible_F5/EF5_tornadoes_officially_rated_F4/EF4_or_lower

Is this because a sufficiently authoritative source such as Marshall (Vilonia) or a dissenting NWS survey team (Tuscaloosa) hasn't yet publicly challenged the EF4 rating? And, can we expect this to happen in the near future?

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

FWIW, I notice that Mayfield etc (or as they call it, the "2021 Western Kentucky Tornado") isn't yet on Wikipedia's list of controversial possible EF5s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_F5_and_EF5_tornadoes#Possible_F5/EF5_tornadoes_officially_rated_F4/EF4_or_lower

Is this because a sufficiently authoritative source such as Marshall (Vilonia) or a dissenting NWS survey team (Tuscaloosa) hasn't yet publicly challenged the EF4 rating? And, can we expect this to happen in the near future?

Probably.

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

The StEER on the December 10, 2021 tornado outbreak was released.
https://www.designsafe-ci.org/data/...details-9096287461002973676-242ac117-0001-012
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Some of the most interesting details in it:

 

[pohnpei]

The StEER on the December 10, 2021 tornado outbreak was released.
https://www.designsafe-ci.org/data/...details-9096287461002973676-242ac117-0001-012
-
Some of the most interesting details in it:

The report seems to implicit that the complete destruction of water tower can be an very impressive DI, contrary to the not enough anchoring saying from Marshall before. And I guess, the 153mph wind speed given for UK facility was the average estimated wind speed for the entire building?

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

Aerial view of the industrial park in Bowling Green. The tornado seems to have rapidly intensified to likely EF4 intensity in this area but it was very brief. The core was also very narrow.

 

[buckeye05]

Video of a direct hit from the Tri-State EF4 as it was crossing the Mississippi River, taken from a boat. Also note the thick fog in the notch between the precip core and the tornado itself. Very unusual and eerie.

 

[buckeye05]

I'm assuming this guy got lucky and took a hit while the tornado wasn't quite as strong. You can definitely hear wind and debris slamming the boat, but it doesn't get quite as violent as expected. This isn't far from where multiple semi-truck drivers took direct hits but survived, which kind of lends to this theory. There were also at least two other areas where the tornado did briefly weaken dramatically (south of Hornersville and south of Braggadocio), with much less intense damage than what occurred elsewhere.

Edit: Looks like there was an anemometer or some type of wind measurement device on the boat. It recorded mid-EF2 level winds (121 MPH) within the tornado, which is consistent with the type of tree damage that occurred nearby (though in the video he says 130 MPH, so it may have peaked a bit higher than the reading he photographed). This guy got extremely, extremely lucky.

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

I'm assuming this guy got lucky and took a hit while the tornado wasn't quite as strong. You can definitely hear wind and debris slamming the boat, but it doesn't get quite as violent as expected. This isn't far from where multiple semi-truck drivers took direct hits but survived, which kind of lends to this theory. There were also at least two other areas where the tornado did briefly weaken dramatically (south of Hornersville and south of Braggadocio), with much less intense damage than what occurred elsewhere.

Edit: Looks like there was an anemometer or some type of wind measurement device on the boat. It recorded mid-EF2 level winds (121 MPH) within the tornado, which is consistent with the type of tree damage that occurred nearby (though in the video he says 132 MPH, so it may have peaked a bit higher than the reading he photographed). This guy got extremely, extremely lucky.
View attachment 11455

I wouldn't be surprised if this tornado was also a higher-end violent. It produced extreme debarking near Buckeye AR, and threw a semi-truck 100-200 yards. The semi-truck had an empty 50-ft trailer attached to it which was never found. It either got thrown extremely far or was completely obliterated as there is nothing that could be the trailer on aerial imagery from what I've seen. Also, that tugboat also could have been outside the intense/violent core of the tornado.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I wouldn't be surprised if this tornado was also a higher-end violent. It produced extreme debarking near Buckeye AR, and threw a semi-truck 100-200 yards. The semi-truck had an empty 50-ft trailer attached to it which was never found. It either got thrown extremely far or was completely obliterated as there is nothing that could be the trailer on aerial imagery from what I've seen. Also, that tugboat also could have been outside the intense/violent core of the tornado.

I'm sure it was outside the core, otherwise that guy wouldn't be alive.

I remember from the live coverage of 4/27, James Spann mentioning that some tugboat operators on the Tombigbee River were nearly hit by tornadoes during the prior 4/15 outbreak. "Talk about being in a bad spot, there's not much they can do!"

 

[buckeye05]

Mayfield tornado moving through Cambridge Shores area. Incredible audible roar here.