Severe WX December 31, 2021 - January 1, 2022 Severe Threat

[Austin Dawg]

I'm surprised this is not warned.

They are watching the Bama football game.

 

[bwalk]

They are watching the Bama football game.

Haha - Probably 100% true!! Local networks don't DARE break into this game!!

 

[Richardjacks]

whatever happens, this gives us confidence in the HRRR for tomorrow.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Haha - Probably 100% true!! Local networks don't DARE break into this game!!

I dated a couple girls in Alabama and I know what those folks are like with Alabama or Auburn playing

Now... turning our attention back to the weather........

 

[MichelleH]

I'm surprised this is not warned.

Considering where it is, I'm not.

 

[TileDude]

The game is on ESPN not local channels.

 

[brianc33710]

You have more confidence in there not being high risk than I. You are probably right, but it looks like to me the cap may be just strong enough to keep messy conv down but stronger updrafts can overcome...delicate balance.

Maybe they will go High. Im going with their sticking with Moderate 3 wks ago. I looked and we have had 3 Jan High Risks in 88, 99 & 17. December & February outbreaks have generated more though. I guess Dec & Feb have more competing air mass interactions than Jan.

 

[brianc33710]

The game is on ESPN not local channels.

War Eagle anyway, even if weve now moved on to BB. Geaux Tigers too as I went to LSU for 2 years.

 

[andyhb]

Pretty obvious pre-frontal trough coming through MS and AL on the 18z NAM in the 00z through 06z window tomorrow evening. That would be a real problem if it comes to fruition.

 

[Richardjacks]

Pretty obvious pre-frontal trough coming through MS and AL on the 18z NAM in the 00z through 06z window tomorrow evening. That would be a real problem if it comes to fruition.

Yeah capes are over 1000

 

[bwalk]

The game is on ESPN not local channels.

Good point. So no one would see the warnings even if local mets did break in to regular programming.

 

[Clancy]

Good point. So no one would see the warnings even if local mets did break in to regular programming.

That would be where EAS comes in.

 

[Equus]

So uh that DeKalb storm probably should've been warned

 

[Austin Dawg]

That would be where EAS comes in.

Yes. I get warnings on every channel over my cable systems but did not when I used Dish.

 

[MichelleH]

So uh that DeKalb storm probably should've been warned

Not the first time this year that HUN dropped the ball.

 

[Richardjacks]

Yeah capes are over 1000

So uh that DeKalb storm probably should've been warned

yeah...this is all concerning to me about tomorrow, for Alabama, it is going to come down to the cap and what happens late afternoon and evening. If the caps breaks too soon, messy convection, too late, a squall line with the front. I would hedge my bet the cap breaks with the prefrontal trough, I would feel differently if it were April when caps are usually stronger than modeled.

 

[Clancy]

Video of that tornado from DeKalb.

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

I’m sorry, but a terrible job on the Huntsville nws. Small debris sig was on radar, and had a nice couplet. They issue tornado warnings for non signatures which leads to the false alarm rate being high, and whiffing on an easy one.

 

[bwalk]

Not the first time this year that HUN dropped the ball.

That's very disturbing on HUN's part. The velocity scans clearly showed rotation.

 

[FEARLESS]

Pretty obvious pre-frontal trough coming through MS and AL on the 18z NAM in the 00z through 06z window tomorrow evening. That would be a real problem if it comes to fruition.

The sounding on hrrr is wicked