Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

[andyhb]

Unfortunately that better news from Mayfield is offset by worse news coming from Dawson Springs. Up to 13 dead there with at least 100 missing.

 

[pohnpei]

If I'm not mistaken, this is from the first tornado that passed near Caruthersville?

Yeah though I'm not entirely sure they were seperate.

 

[TH2002]

Yeah though I'm not entirely sure they were seperate.

If it was two seperate tornadoes then the first one (the "Tri-State Tornado") was violent up to the very end. There was pretty pronounced scouring in Samburg, TN.

 

[andyhb]

 

[buckeye05]

If they go with an EF5 rating, it could come down to a few houses or buildings in a rural area like above, rather than a lot of the more visually dramatic and concentrated damage in towns.

 

[buckeye05]

I hate how I'm already seeing the default dismissiveness about the potential rating of this from mets on other sites, pretty much already insinuating not to expect a high-end rating. Nobody who is surveying should be going in with a skeptical attitude, but rather an objective one. There is definitely some kind of weird psychological phenomenon that causes an "upgrade hesitance" within the portion of the meteorological community that is responsible for damage surveying.

 

[pohnpei]

Some photos around this area indeed showed very intense grass scouring and wind rowing that can compared to some of the most violent tornados in Dixie.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I hate how I'm already seeing the default dismissiveness about the potential rating of this from mets on other sites, pretty much already insinuating not to expect a high-end rating. Nobody who is surveying should be going in with a skeptical attitude, but rather an objective one. There is definitely some kind of weird psychological phenomenon that causes an "upgrade hesitance" within the portion of the meteorological community that is responsible for damage surveying.

Why hasn't even an EF4 rating been handed out for at least one of these tornadoes?

 

[WhirlingWx]

A thread with more damage from Dawson Springs.

The second image in this tweet- what is that stuck up in the tree? It looks like a refrigerator to me.

 

[OHWX97]

The live wall to wall coverage of the Mayfield tornado on WPSD in Paducah has already been uploaded to YouTube.

I finally got around to watching a good portion of this coverage. I have to say, these two men did a truly outstanding job and likely saved many lives that night.

 

[SilentShadow87]

I hate how I'm already seeing the default dismissiveness about the potential rating of this from mets on other sites, pretty much already insinuating not to expect a high-end rating. Nobody who is surveying should be going in with a skeptical attitude, but rather an objective one. There is definitely some kind of weird psychological phenomenon that causes an "upgrade hesitance" within the portion of the meteorological community that is responsible for damage surveying.

Where are you seeing this?

 

[A Guy]

Where are you seeing this?

Dec. 10-11 Severe Weather

www.americanwx.com

 

[TornadoFan]

A thread with more damage from Dawson Springs.

The second image in this tweet- what is that stuck up in the tree? It looks like a refrigerator to me.

It does look like a fridge. Wow.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

Why hasn't even an EF4 rating been handed out for at least one of these tornadoes?

I think more detailed surveys are going to be done starting Monday, we're only at the preliminary phase right now....that said, if an EF5 rating isn't handed out to at least tornado from this outbreak I'm going to scream. Lol.

 

[vanni9283]

The live wall to wall coverage of the Mayfield tornado on WPSD in Paducah has already been uploaded to YouTube.

The lady who gets interviewed mentioned a well getting ripped out of the ground. How much wind does it take to rip a well out of the ground?

 

[pohnpei]

From what I can tell now, this tornado literally did slab after slab after slab from Cayce all the way down to at least Bremen. It had even more slabs than Hackleburg.

So I know many people would questioned about the construction about houses or something. But Hackleburg had large sections of EF5 rating and I just don't believe houses that Hackleburg encountered throughout its path were all way better than this one.

If they finally didn't manage to find even one EF5 point among so great amounts of complete destruction from different types of building. I would be really disappointed and lose faith in this system.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

From what I can tell now, this tornado literally did slab after slab after slab from Cayce all the way down to at least Bremen. It had even more slabs than Hackleburg.

So I know many people would questioned about the construction about houses or something. But Hackleburg had large sections of EF5 rating and I just don't believe houses that Hackleburg encountered throughout its path was way better than this one.

If they finally didn't manage to find even one EF5 point among so great amounts of complete destruction from different types of building. I would be really disappointed and lose faith in this system.

Yeah this whole mindset of 'conservative = accurate' when it comes to tornado ratings needs to stop, now. So many underrated tornadoes in the past decade (Chickasha, Goldsby, Vilonia and Chapman 2016 being the ones discussed most often on this site) that if not a single EF5 from this accurate then I'm giving up with the EF scale, or at least how it's currently administered.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah this whole mindset of 'conservative = accurate' when it comes to tornado ratings needs to stop, now. So many underrated tornadoes in the past decade (Chickasha, Goldsby, Vilonia and Chapman 2016 being the ones discussed most often on this site) that if not a single EF5 from this accurate then I'm giving up with the EF scale, or at least how it's currently administered.

The worst part is that the "EF5 hesitancy" has spilled over into other things like some WFOs trying to go below lower bound and, for example, rate a slabbed frame home as EF2 when the scale states that minimum for that DI/DOD is EF3 if it was poorly anchored. I recall at least a couple of instances of that being posted about on this forum, although at least one of them got corrected in short order.

 

[TH2002]

The worst part is that the "EF5 hesitancy" has spilled over into other things like some WFOs trying to go below lower bound and, for example, rate a slabbed frame home as EF2 when the scale states that minimum for that DI/DOD is EF3 if it was poorly anchored. I recall at least a couple of instances of that being posted about on this forum, although at least one of them got corrected in short order.

The absolute WORST case of a WFO going "below lower bound" I can think of is Smithfield NY 2014. A three story farmhouse bolted to a CMU foundation was completely obliterated and swept away, with debris thrown downwind. They deemed it 135MPH EF2.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

The absolute WORST case of a WFO going "below lower bound" I can think of is Smithfield NY 2014. A three story farmhouse bolted to a CMU foundation was completely obliterated and swept away, with debris thrown downwind. They deemed it 135MPH EF2.

EF2? Uhhhhhhhh..........