Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

[Brice]

Not so much that there's extreme high end EF5 damage indicators all along the path but if they explain away every instance of potential EF5 damage with the usual "one bolt was maybe missing a washer/maybe it was hit by a flying car/there's a tree standing on the edge of the property/we just felt like using the lowest end wind estimate possible" for all 250+ miles of high end damage just to avoid giving a higher rating, we've got some major problems with the application of the EF scale (or even bigger than was already obvious)

It's annoying that the criterion for EF5 was made almost legitimately impossible to attain; what's the point of having a six point 0-5 scale if we're only allowed to use the lowest four and rarely the fifth for damage appropriate to it?

I think we can ask this question for a couple other tornadoes like Vilonia 2014 or Chapman 2016

 

[Equus]

I think we can ask this question for a couple other tornadoes like Vilonia 2014 or Chapman 2016

Yep, those are certainly the most egregious cases, and I fear made other WFOs more confident they could nitpick and keep something from a higher rating; I don't understand the stigma against upgrading to EF5 when the situation calls for it, as there are usually one or two candidates a year at the very most so it's not like it will become overused. I'm convinced we would be lucky to have one or two EF5s at most from 4/27/11 at most given the standards set in more recent years.

 

[Brice]

Yep, those are certainly the most egregious cases, and I fear made other WFOs more confident they could nitpick and keep something from a higher rating; I don't understand the stigma against upgrading to EF5 when the situation calls for it, as there are usually one or two candidates a year at the very most so it's not like it will become overused. I'm convinced we would be lucky to have one or two EF5s at most from 4/27/11 at most given the standards set in more recent years.

Couldn't had said it any better.

 

[buckeye05]

Right now I’m seeing the strongest EF5 candidates in Cambridge Shores and in a rural area outside of Princeton.

 

[A Guy]

I can sort of see a reason for a FEW of the stupid lowballs of recent years but if this isn't EF5 level damage the entire scale should be thrown out. Reminder the Belmond tornado in 1966 STILL is on file as a 5 for shifting one poorly anchored house off its foundation in a pile.

This is another salient issue, the unwillingness to go back and correct wrong ratings, whether old (Belmond, Wheelersburg) or recent (Vilonia). There seems to be a mindset of holding work sacred (unless it's your rival's, a dynamic I saw at university). The older ratings in particular are rarely better than the amateur assessments done on here, and are sometimes worse. There's been quite a few revisions to tropical cyclones over the years, what's wrong with revising a few tornadoes? And why not have a bit of disagreement when a WFO's ratings seem janky?

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Didn't someone on here say the Bowling Green tornado may have done possible EF5 damage to an institutional building?

 

[Brice]

This is another salient issue, the unwillingness to go back and correct wrong ratings, whether old (Belmond, Wheelersburg) or recent (Vilonia). There seems to be a mindset of holding work sacred (unless it's your rival's, a dynamic I saw at university). The older ratings in particular are rarely better than the amateur assessments done on here, and are sometimes worse. There's been quite a few revisions to tropical cyclones over the years, what's wrong with revising a few tornadoes?

Exactly, there's a reason why people consider Chapman and Vilonia to be EF5s despite the EF4 rating they received.

 

[buckeye05]

Didn't someone on here say the Bowling Green tornado may have done possible EF5 damage to an institutional building?

No that was from area near Princeton mentioned above.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

No that was from area near Princeton mentioned above.

Ok, thank you!

 

[TH2002]

Right now I’m seeing the strongest EF5 candidates in Cambridge Shores and in a rural area outside of Princeton.

Can you link me to the post showing the EF5 candidates outside of Princeton?

 

[A Guy]

I'm convinced we would be lucky to have one or two EF5s at most from 4/27/11 at most given the standards set in more recent years.

Certainly I don't see the Rainsville tornado being upgraded to EF5 now, and maybe not Philadelphia as it was rated on the ground damage which is not a defined DI despite fully fitting the definition of 'incredible'.

 

[OHWX97]

 

[buckeye05]

Not to derail, but the “EF5 drought” from 2013 onward needs to be given a closer look. I can think of at least 4 that could be given an upgrade from EF4 to EF3 during that time period (Vilonia, Rochelle, Chapman, and Bassfield)

They upgraded the October 2010 Bellemont, AZ tornado from EF2 to EF3 recently. That one occurred years ago. Why can’t they do that with others? I can also think of at least 3 or 4 that occurred in 2011 that need to be upgraded from EF4 to EF5 as well. (Goldsby, Chickasha, New Wren, and maybe Tuscaloosa).

 

[eric11]

This is Bassfield-esque.It's the most violent tree damage I've ever seen in an EF5!

 

[TH2002]

The first tornado did some pretty impressive damage to a Dollar General when it hit Leachville. The building's shelves and refrigerators were all blown to one side of the building, anchoring was ripped out of the foundation where the metal frame failed, and the metal frame was also bent/crushed back, slabbing a good portion of the building.

 

[buckeye05]

Can you link me to the post showing the EF5 candidates outside of Princeton?

It’s at and around the UK Research building. Possible EF5 institutional building damage, with concrete light pole anchors reportedly ripped out of the ground. The ground appears to have been scoured down to bare soil in that area too. ChrisJacksonSC on Twitter is documenting it.

 

[Gail]

I’ve always said there needs to be a “tornado team” that does these surveys. A combo of NWS employees and federal employee engineers that fully understand buildings & codes. The same group trained together, they do surveys together (which given…would take a while in situations like this), but there would be consistency in the ratings. When a member leaves, a new member is brought on board and trained the same. Heck, we have teams for everything with my federal job, and it isn’t even as historically/data science important as ratings surveys. They all do their regular day-to-day jobs and then go TDY when needed.

 

[andyhb]

This is nasty from the tornado that passed north of Campbellsville KY in Taylor County.

 

[buckeye05]

This is Bassfield-esque.It's the most violent tree damage I've ever seen in an EF5!

That is just unreal. No words.

The first tornado did some pretty impressive damage to a Dollar General when it hit Leachville. The building's shelves and refrigerators were all blown to one side of the building, anchoring was ripped out of the foundation where the metal frame failed, and the metal frame was also bent/crushed back, slabbing a good portion of the building.
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That’s almost as bad as the Dollar General in Vilonia. Almost…

 

[Brice]

This is Bassfield-esque.It's the most violent tree damage I've ever seen in an EF5!

Just give it an EF5 rating already....