CSimonds
Member
I don't think this system "busted" per se. A few things were "off" in the models to be sure. Just my opinion. I do recall watching the forecasts last night that had this forming right on top of us in N AL and progressing rapidly east. The moderate risk area expanded and contracted based on model data. But the last thing I recall before going to bed was forecasts showing the warm front advecting rapidly to the north and the afternoon system building over the eastern part of Alabama. So, did the warm front move north a good bit slower than projected? Did it take longer for the environment over N AL to destabilize after the morning convection? Did the morning storms set up boundaries? Did the cap hold out longer (bc I don't remember capping as being an impediment in the models) Why did the storms struggle in N AL but intensify over TN and West GA?
When I say I am fascinated by "what happened" after-the-fact is wanting to know the "why's" of what makes some storm systems over perform and some under perform. An example is from about 12 or so years ago. It was a moderate risk day. The morning of the "big event" was beautiful. I took my dog for a walk expecting to hear thunder in the distance. No thunder. As the day wore on nothing was happening. The day ended with absolutely nothing. Not even a thundershower. Afterwards it was told that the strong cap held fast. Another storm system was back in the 90's. Someone will remember this I'm sure. It was either a moderate or high risk day. A tornado watch was issued. The supercells lined up. All healthy on radar. The classic winged V, nice rotation and hook echoes. Warning after warning......wall clouds spotted....but no tornadoes. And so it went....storms rapidly forming and becoming severe - rotating - then...nothing. But one lone storm E of Birmingham spawned one large tornado. After the storms were over, everyone was puzzling. What caused that one storm to put down a tornado and what kept the rest from doing the same? It was later discovered that the surface winds were out of the "wrong" direction and thus there was not enough shear at the lower levels. If the surface winds had been out of the south then it would have been a horrific night. But why the one tornado? A flanking storm had created its own "atmosphere" causing the inflow winds to that one storm to spin all the way to the ground and not just a rotating storm but no tornado. Another fascination is what causes a day that has a slight risk and "not the right ingredients" put down a few tornadoes and surprise everyone? I know my descriptions are not all "scientific" but this part of meteorology fascinates me. Almost a "forensic" meteorology if you will.
I meant West of Birmingham and not East of Birmingham in that instance.