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Severe WX Severe Threat 25 March 2021

Equus said:
Makes sense, everything is definitely having trouble with the worked over air mass. Would not let guard down though.
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Storms are struggling but definitely not putting it past them to turn severe on a dime.
 
Yeh, I certainly don't trust them at all so will keep watching, but probably not gonna have widespread impacts
 
I think Mississippi paid their dues last April lol, definitely seems to be lucking out this year so far
 
Clancy said:
New SPC update brings us down to an Enhanced.
View attachment 7655
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Welp, color me flummoxed yet again. Not to minimize what has happened or call today a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, but there was a major fail of NWP today. For as bad as today was, many runs of multiple models portrayed a much higher ceiling than what was realized. I fully expected at least a couple of the MS/TN cells to take root and do what the ones in AL did, especially after all the sunshine Mississippi got this morning.
 
Spann's post on FB:

"Many thanks to all of you who have reached out to me; a tornado produced damage at our home today. My wife was home when it hit, but she got the warning, was in our in-home shelter, and is fine. While we lost many trees, the home is intact and we will be not have to "rebuild".

Please consider helping others across the state who have much more serious damage... some lost their homes and are homeless tonight.

Thanks again for your kindness."
 
Richardjacks said:
wow what a day. the widespread showers this morning caused the highest instability to be placed further south than expected, but the shear was just as high there. I am not sure we are 100% done yet.
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I suspected the rain and warm front "moving north" were going to be a problem. Rule of thumb holding true so far.
 
TOR just south of Nashville:

976
WFUS54 KOHX 260113
TOROHX
TNC037-041-149-159-187-189-260145-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0004.210326T0113Z-210326T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
813 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southern Smith County in Middle Tennessee...
Southeastern Davidson County in Middle Tennessee...
Northwestern De Kalb County in Middle Tennessee...
Northwestern Rutherford County in Middle Tennessee...
Northeastern Williamson County in Middle Tennessee...
Central Wilson County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 845 PM CDT.

* At 813 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near La Vergne, or 13 miles southeast of Nashville,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Carthage, Smyrna, La Vergne, Mount Juliet, Nolensville,
Watertown, Gordonsville, Rural Hill, Antioch, Walterhill, Hickman,
South Carthage, Alexandria, Tuckers Crossroads, Cedars Of Lebanon
State Park, Gladeville and Percy Priest Lake.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 40 between mile markers 233 and 264.
Interstate 24 between mile markers 56 and 70.
Interstate 840 between mile markers 59 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 8668 3607 8675 3634 8593 3608 8583
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 248DEG 40KT 3603 8662

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

Rose
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HazardousWx said:
I suspected the rain and warm front "moving north" were going to be a problem. Rule of thumb holding true so far.
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And why didn't the warm front "move north"? Not just because of the rain being there. The dynamic support that was supposed to make that a non-issue did not materialize to the extent expected. The models universally over-amped the upper system, so the surface response was not as potent as anticipated as close in to the event as 12Z this morning.

At least, that's my rudimentary analysis. Experts, please chime in.

Edit: And we still had at least two cyclic supercells with at least two probable violent tornadoes, which was about the low end of my range of expectations for today (in a private message, I stated that my high end was about one-half of a 4/27/11).
 
CheeselandSkies said:
And why didn't the warm front "move north"? Not just because of the rain. The dynamic support that was supposed to make that a non-issue did not materialize to the extent expected. The models universally over-amped the upper system, so the surface response was not as potent as anticipated as close in to the event as 12Z this morning.

At least, that's my rudimentary analysis. Experts, please chime in.
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Hopefully, this issue gets studied and the issues identified and corrected.
 
Atlanta interests should definitely stay vigilant. This sounding is from just SSW of Jonesboro, GA, about 18 miles due S of Atlanta at 4am. I think I'm going to bed now and waking up at 2am.
 

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Watch the isolated severe thunderstorm warned storm for Blount County. We will see if it makes it to Sand and Lookout Mountains and the friction of the land drops a tornado later in the Gadsden/Fort Payne areas.
 
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