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Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

RF16Gold

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This is from the State of Alabama EMA:

WEATHER UPDATE FROM STATE EMA-



A dangerous and life-threatening event is unfolding on Wednesday with three rounds of storms. There is a Moderate Risk for much of the state, including a 15% chance of tornadoes, 30% chance of damaging wind gusts and at least a 10% chance of EF2 or greater tornadoes within 25 miles of any point. These are very high probabilities of severe weather coverage. Finally, don't get hung up on specific threat areas. This will likely be a statewide event, no matter what SPC threat area you are under.



The first two rounds of storms will have limited severe weather coverage. The third is the most certain with widespread and significant severe storms, including strong to violent long-tracked tornadoes.



Round 1 - As the surface boundary moves northward as a warm front, a few severe storms are possible Wednesday from 7 am - 12 pm north of a Hamilton - Cullman - Centre line. Severe weather, if any, will be limited in coverage.



Round 2 - Models continue to indicate scattered thunderstorm development after 11 am in southwest AL, spreading northeast into northern AL by 6 pm. The atmosphere will be primed for tornadic storms, and any of these thunderstorms could become severe. This will not be the "main show", but a few warnings across the state are certainly possible. Wind gusts up to 80 mph, golf ball hail, and tornadoes are all possible.


Round 3 - A broken line of severe thunderstorms will reach western AL between 6-8 pm Wednesday, the I65 corridor between 11 pm - 2 am and exit the southeast sections of the state between 6 am and 10 am Thursday. This will be the most widespread and dangerous part of the event. Tornadic supercells will likely occur the entire period, including long-tracked EF2 or stronger tornadoes. In addition, straight-line winds up to 80 mph will mimic tornado damage. Golf ball or larger hail is possible. Thus, the message on Wednesday/Thursday morning is to take NWS Severe Thunderstorm Warnings just as serious as Tornado Warnings.
 

WesL

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Question. With this weather coming into Alabama I have a safety question. Is it safer to stay in a brick home or go to a community storm shelter? Thanks in advance! I have followed this site for a long time but this is my first post.
First welcome to TalkWeather! Each home is built differently so your brick home might not be the same as my brick home. I think it really boils down to the other elements. First, where in your home would you seek shelter? If there is a good center room, free of any heavy objects and glass,, I would go ahead and prep that space. If you don't feel you have a good center room, I would consider making plans to go to the shelter. As a previous poster mentioned, most shelters that were paid for with FEMA funds have tight specifications to built to and you are more than likely more secure there than home. Just don't wait too long if you decide to go that route.
 

bwalk

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Chasing Question: Storm mode for tomorrow

If funnels form tomorrow (3/17/21) is there a current consensus on whether they will tend to be high precip or low precip?
I know this is largely dependent on upper-level storm-relative winds - with ~>60 knots being a good determiner for LP.

I have no desire to deal w/ an HP rain-wrapped environment, nor the courage to even try.
 
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WesL

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Howdy, everyone. We are going to complete a routine clearing of the baffles aka switch out our web servers in a few minutes. TalkWeather may appear down for less than 2 minutes.

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WesL

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Howdy, everyone. We are going to complete a routine clearing of the baffles aka switch out our web servers in a few minutes. TalkWeather may appear down for less than 2 minutes.

Captain Ramius:

Give me a ping, Vasili. One ping only, please.

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Aye, Captain.
All done. Thanks, everyone.
 

brianc33710

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First of all, I do NOT want anyone to think that I believe tomorrow's outbreak will compare with 27 April 2011 Superoutbreak.

Now, saying that, with the earlier discussion regarding how 27 Apr 11 dwarfs other "High Risk" scenarios, I would argue that the SPC went with an exceptionally High Risk, 6/5, 45% for that superoutbreak by late that morning. So, remove 27 Apr 11 from the "average" High Risks issued by the SPC and then compare the rest to each other.
 

mbrewer

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Chasing Question: Storm mode for tomorrow

If funnels form tomorrow (3/16/21) is there a current consensus on whether they will tend to be high precip or low precip?
I know this is largely dependent on upper-level storm-relative winds - with ~>60 knots being a good determiner for LP.

I have no desire to deal w/ an HP rain-wrapped environment, nor the courage to even try.
More of an in-the-middle classic supercell setup, so there should be some rain and maybe even some hail trying to wrap around the mesos, but the bulk of the precip should be pushed east and north of the updraft. As always, storm modes can fluctuate and interactions with other cells complicate things. If temps stay in the mid 70s, and with dewpoints at 70, the cloud bases will be very low, so that could be another hindrance to visibility. Just my amateur opinion of course. :)
 

MattW

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The HRRR and NAM both keep a pretty good CAD (or wedge?) in place over NE Georgia which should somewhat moderate the threat for that area. HRRR definitely shows more potential for south Georgia than the NAM does.
 

MQATLSNOW

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The HRRR and NAM both keep a pretty good CAD (or wedge?) in place over NE Georgia which should somewhat moderate the threat for that area. HRRR definitely shows more potential for south Georgia than the NAM does.
I don't think Atlanta will be in the "eye" of this situation. I think the CAD will stay alittle longer the NE GA including Metro Atlanta.
 

MadisonDawg

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Another re-join here (I think). I was a member of a TalkWeather forum in the late '90s, possibly early 2000s. I believe it was from James Spann at his television station in Birmingham. Is this the same forum?

Anyway, looking forward following the upcoming severe weather outbreak. Governor Ivey has already declared a state of emergency for Alabama.
 

KoD

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I've seen a bit of discussion about this second round in the afternoon timeframe after the morning warm front and before the evening cold front/qlcs. What forcing mechanic would fire off storms in this volatile warm sector during the afternoon in MS/AL?
 

Fred Gossage

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I've seen a bit of discussion about this second round in the afternoon timeframe after the morning warm front and before the evening cold front/qlcs. What forcing mechanic would fire off storms in this volatile warm sector during the afternoon in MS/AL?
Just the subtle lift out ahead of the approaching trough and the low-level convergence along weak little small scale boundaries. The cap will be weak by afternoon. It won't take too much forcing to trigger stuff.
 
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