RF16Gold
Member
This is from the State of Alabama EMA:
WEATHER UPDATE FROM STATE EMA-
A dangerous and life-threatening event is unfolding on Wednesday with three rounds of storms. There is a Moderate Risk for much of the state, including a 15% chance of tornadoes, 30% chance of damaging wind gusts and at least a 10% chance of EF2 or greater tornadoes within 25 miles of any point. These are very high probabilities of severe weather coverage. Finally, don't get hung up on specific threat areas. This will likely be a statewide event, no matter what SPC threat area you are under.
The first two rounds of storms will have limited severe weather coverage. The third is the most certain with widespread and significant severe storms, including strong to violent long-tracked tornadoes.
Round 1 - As the surface boundary moves northward as a warm front, a few severe storms are possible Wednesday from 7 am - 12 pm north of a Hamilton - Cullman - Centre line. Severe weather, if any, will be limited in coverage.
Round 2 - Models continue to indicate scattered thunderstorm development after 11 am in southwest AL, spreading northeast into northern AL by 6 pm. The atmosphere will be primed for tornadic storms, and any of these thunderstorms could become severe. This will not be the "main show", but a few warnings across the state are certainly possible. Wind gusts up to 80 mph, golf ball hail, and tornadoes are all possible.
Round 3 - A broken line of severe thunderstorms will reach western AL between 6-8 pm Wednesday, the I65 corridor between 11 pm - 2 am and exit the southeast sections of the state between 6 am and 10 am Thursday. This will be the most widespread and dangerous part of the event. Tornadic supercells will likely occur the entire period, including long-tracked EF2 or stronger tornadoes. In addition, straight-line winds up to 80 mph will mimic tornado damage. Golf ball or larger hail is possible. Thus, the message on Wednesday/Thursday morning is to take NWS Severe Thunderstorm Warnings just as serious as Tornado Warnings.
WEATHER UPDATE FROM STATE EMA-
A dangerous and life-threatening event is unfolding on Wednesday with three rounds of storms. There is a Moderate Risk for much of the state, including a 15% chance of tornadoes, 30% chance of damaging wind gusts and at least a 10% chance of EF2 or greater tornadoes within 25 miles of any point. These are very high probabilities of severe weather coverage. Finally, don't get hung up on specific threat areas. This will likely be a statewide event, no matter what SPC threat area you are under.
The first two rounds of storms will have limited severe weather coverage. The third is the most certain with widespread and significant severe storms, including strong to violent long-tracked tornadoes.
Round 1 - As the surface boundary moves northward as a warm front, a few severe storms are possible Wednesday from 7 am - 12 pm north of a Hamilton - Cullman - Centre line. Severe weather, if any, will be limited in coverage.
Round 2 - Models continue to indicate scattered thunderstorm development after 11 am in southwest AL, spreading northeast into northern AL by 6 pm. The atmosphere will be primed for tornadic storms, and any of these thunderstorms could become severe. This will not be the "main show", but a few warnings across the state are certainly possible. Wind gusts up to 80 mph, golf ball hail, and tornadoes are all possible.
Round 3 - A broken line of severe thunderstorms will reach western AL between 6-8 pm Wednesday, the I65 corridor between 11 pm - 2 am and exit the southeast sections of the state between 6 am and 10 am Thursday. This will be the most widespread and dangerous part of the event. Tornadic supercells will likely occur the entire period, including long-tracked EF2 or stronger tornadoes. In addition, straight-line winds up to 80 mph will mimic tornado damage. Golf ball or larger hail is possible. Thus, the message on Wednesday/Thursday morning is to take NWS Severe Thunderstorm Warnings just as serious as Tornado Warnings.