Severe WX Severe Threat 12-15 March 2021

[buckeye05]

So this just suddenly happened unwarned west of Dodge City

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Seeing debris fallout on CC. That caused damage.

 

[Equus]

Seems like every event lately there's something like this long after everything else quiets down, assuming LLJ ramping up

 

[Equus]

Here's this in OK too; wouldn't sleep on the threat just yet

 

[Jacob]

Seeing debris fallout on CC. That caused damage.

NWS Dodge City is denying that it was a tornado. Think they are going to have to eat that denial come daylight

 

[buckeye05]

NWS Dodge City is denying that it was a tornado. Think they are going to have to eat that denial come daylight

What. How? Like how can you deny that.

 

[Jacob]

What. How? Like how can you deny that.

Don’t know, they weren’t exactly thorough in their explanation.

 

[buckeye05]

Don’t know, they weren’t exactly thorough in their explanation.

That’s insanely arrogant.

 

[Jacob]

That’s insanely arrogant.

I guess they are trying to blame it on the interference from the wind farm that is there? Beats me. There’s pretty clearly debris lofted and carried pretty far north on higher tilts.

 

[OHWX97]

Don’t know, they weren’t exactly thorough in their explanation.

Haha what??? Are they serious? What else would it be? That one word response without a single ounce of explanation is totally unprofessional. At least let the public know what the heck we're looking at, because everything about that radar presentation screamed "tornado."

 

[WhirlingWx]

They're explaining a bit more now (see thread)


It still seems to me like this was a tornado, but I guess we'll have to find out later. Much more appropriate response from them here, though.

 

[OHWX97]

They're explaining a bit more now (see thread)

I'm baffled. I'm happy they explained themselves better, but you just don't get velocity signatures like that with an elevated storm.

 

[Jacob]

They're explaining a bit more now (see thread)


It still seems to me like this was a tornado, but I guess we'll have to find out later. Much more appropriate response from them here, though.

...”strong wind gust” LOL. Yeah, it’s called a tornado.

 

[Equus]

The recent NC EF3 happened in an environment assumed elevated too, so I'd not want to be quick to assume such, but they're the experts not me. Not sure how we get a CC sig and a brief reflectivity spike there with an elevated cell unless that was a perfectly timed hail shaft

 

[OHWX97]

...”strong wind gust” LOL. Yeah, it’s called a tornado.

Debris ball on reflectivity: check
Intense couplet on velocity: check
CC drop that lines up with said couplet/debris ball: check
Tornado? "No."

Sorry. I'm a bit bugged by this.

 

[KoD]

Yeah that's bizarre. I was thinking "No." "Dangit we missed another one!"
Apparently they're in a bit of damage control now.
In my imagination they've been glued to the radar meticulously analyzing every aspect of every scan for hours on end and someone comes along and says "lol u missed a spot" and they flipped the table.
Either way I'm interested to see what comes of the radar signature without trying to add to any finger pointing.

 

[Jacob]

I'm baffled. I'm happy they explained themselves better, but you just don't get velocity signatures like that with an elevated storm.

There’s a sliver of surface instability just SW of Dodge City, this thing did this crossing the warm front most likely. It might be 48/48 in dodge city, but it was about 60/59 where this tornado occurred, and it was a surface based storm.

I respect the NWS and the vast majority of the Mets that work there, but whoever is in charge at DDC tonight dropped the ball badly, and continues to kick it around to try and save face.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Is it possible that large-scale development of wind farms may locally enhance conditions that lead to spin-up tornadoes?

 

[Mike S]

a chaser from Live Storms Media who also works with KAKE says he does not see obvious evidence of a tornado.

 

[andyhb]

Activity is already going upscale and/or quasi-linear. Clearly, the mid-level flow is largely parallel to the boundary, so mergers are already taking place on NEXRAD. Some bowing is also evident with the relatively “discrete” activity thus far. The best parameters for SIGTOR are highly localised and ephemeral at best.

This post immediately before a series of significant tornadoes. I see you haven’t lost your step.

 

[MattW]

I'm inclined to believe the ground truth report. But at the same time, at Ensign, KS, the radar beam is only ~900ft up at that point.