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Severe WX Severe Threat 12-15 March 2021 (2 Viewers)

warneagle

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There's some threat in the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma today, but the more robust threat appears to be tomorrow, which has an ENH.

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Bevo

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Texas-sized cells!

EDIT: Weather twitter is keeping a close eye on tomorrow in the panhandle. SPC mentions a potential upgrade to MDT. :oops:

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Bevo

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Moderate issued just now. Apologies I’m on mobile. This is for percentages Involving strong tornadoes.It is difficult to tell but on the site it lists Amarillo under a 10% hatch, but knowing the volatile atmosphere in play here I would be reaching out to those I know in the area and warning them...

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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms are expected later today into
early tonight from west Texas into western Oklahoma and southwestern
Kansas. The most significant severe weather threat, including
strong tornadoes and very large hail, is expected this
afternoon/evening across the east central and southeast Texas
Panhandle.

...Southern High Plains through early tonight...
A deep closed low over AZ will progress eastward to the southern
High Plains by the end of the period. In association with an
embedded jet streak rotating northeastward around the eastern
periphery of the low, a surface cyclone will develop
north-northeastward from the TX Panhandle this afternoon to
southwestern KS tonight. The cyclogenesis will draw the surface
warm sector northward across western OK and the TX Panhandle today
to the east of a developing dryline, which will focus severe storm
development this afternoon/evening.

Some elevated convection is expected this morning from northeast NM
northeastward into southwest KS, within the exit region of the
mid-upper jet. Midlevel lapse rates/buoyancy will be sufficient for
isolated large hail with this convection. Farther southeast and
following a lull in the overnight convection, the warm sector will
spread northward today, beneath midlevel lapse rates greater than 8
C/km. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) is expected
south of the warm front and east of the dryline this afternoon, with
only weak convective inhibition along the dryline. Initial storm
development is expected early-mid afternoon along the dryline in the
vicinity of I-27 in TX Panhandle/South Plains. These initial storms
will move off the dryline and maintain more discrete character as
they encounter a moist, destabilizing warm sector with strong
vertical shear. Given boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 60s,
afternoon temperatures of 65-70 F, effective bulk shear near 70 kt,
and effective SRH in excess of 250 m2/s2, there will be a few hour
window for a couple of supercells to produce long-track, strong
tornadoes and very large hail across the east central/southeast TX
Panhandle.

West of the initial supercells, squall line development is expected
by evening as a Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline and the
stronger height falls/ascent overspread the TX Panhandle and west
central TX. Embedded supercell structures within the line will be
capable of producing all hazards, though the overall severe threat
will weaken with eastward extent during the early overnight hours,
as a result of diminishing buoyancy.
 
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OHWX97

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12z HRRR shows a significant line of supercells erupting by this afternoon/evening tracking east of Amarillo into western Oklahoma where they begin to dissipate. Serious potential for strong tornadoes in the eastern Texas Panhandle if this verifies. Pretty much on point with the latest convective outlook (posted above) 06f81859-d50b-41c0-82fa-896fb29238bb.gif
 
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speedbump305

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Y’all! we have a chance of seeing some strong tornadoes possible today! a moderate risk has been issued for the plains! do y’all think it’s gonna bust?

Mod Edit: Moved from sig tor events thread
 
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warneagle

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MD is up for the early activity along the dryline west of the MDT area.

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warneagle

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Yeah, this setup is uh, concerning to say the least. We might not get a huge number of storms but anything that can stay discrete is going to have plenty of shear and instability to work with.

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NAMfcst.png NAMverification.png

So far winds looked to be more parallel to the boundary than the NAM has forecast, especially closer to the Llano Estacado, along the border separating eastern NM from the TX Panhandle. I don’t think there will be as much significant discrete activity as some people expect. Maybe one big supercell will produce large hail and a couple of tornadoes, but probably not multiple long-tracking EF2+ events. I do expect the MDT Risk to verify, one way or another.
 
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speedbump305

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View attachment 6823 View attachment 6824

So far winds looked to be more parallel to the boundary than the NAM has forecast, especially closer to the Llano Estacado, along the border separating eastern NM from the TX Panhandle. I don’t think there will be as much significant discrete activity as some people expect. Maybe one big supercell will produce large hail and a couple of tornadoes, but probably not multiple long-tracking EF2+ events. I do expect the MDT Risk to verify, one way or another.
Yeah i was just going to point that out. But you never know. It could be a ugly day or it could be a bust
 

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