Don't think we're going to get sufficient moisture return for the Feb 3-6 system if that nor'easter around the turn of the month just sits there for days. Too much ridging downstream/to the north.
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Pardon my ignorance (I am new), but what does Modoki mean and what could that mean for Spring? I am guessing nothing good??View attachment 5801
Strengthening of both the -PDO (cooling over the NE Pacific and warming west) and +TNI signatures (Nino 1.2 warming faster than Nino 4) over the past week via CDAS. We’re now comfortably in a “Modoki” La Niña configuration.
Modoki means the cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific associated with La Nina are further west than usual in a typical La Nina. It sets up a configuration in the SSTA patterns that has been present for a number of active severe weather seasons in Dixie.Pardon my ignorance (I am new), but what does Modoki mean and what could that mean for Spring? I am guessing nothing good??
OK, so just more talk of what everyone has been saying lately: This year Dixie Alley MAY get its donkey whooped in a way it has not seen since 2011 because of how things have been lining up in recent weather patterns.Modoki means the cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific associated with La Nina are further west than usual in a typical La Nina. It sets up a configuration in the SSTA patterns that has been present for a number of active severe weather seasons in Dixie.
That's a bit early. The MJO has gone back into the Pacific, and that helps drive the pattern suppression we have seen so far this winter. It doesn't mean we won't have any threats, but the main action likely isn't going to start that soon. The MJO will head back toward phases supportive of traditional La Nina forcing deeper into February. I think the main action starts to pick up with time in March, and especially in April.OK, so just more talk of what everyone has been saying lately: This year Dixie Alley MAY get its donkey whooped in a way it has not seen since 2011 because of how things have been lining up in recent weather patterns.
Great.
I live in Dixie and it will be very interesting to see how things are looking in mid to late February.
View attachment 5801
Strengthening of both the -PDO (cooling over the NE Pacific and warming west) and +TNI signatures (Nino 1.2 warming faster than Nino 4) over the past week via CDAS. We’re now comfortably in a “Modoki” La Niña configuration.
Oops.. I should have clarified something. LOL! I was not saying that our severe events would start in February LOL. I read somewhere (probably on this thread I think) that there is going to be some change in mid to late February that will further "set the stage" for what we are thinking is going to happen in March and April. I cannot remember exactly what it was, but I believe the change I am thinking of is the MJO heading back.That's a bit early. The MJO has gone back into the Pacific, and that helps drive the pattern suppression we have seen so far this winter. It doesn't mean we won't have any threats, but the main action likely isn't going to start that soon. The MJO will head back toward phases supportive of traditional La Nina forcing deeper into February. I think the main action starts to pick up with time in March, and especially in April.
So in other words....? lolOvernight CDAS derived ENSO data on Tidbits has Region 1+2 now positive (+0.003), and Region 4 is still below -1 and dropping again (-1.058). That gives a TNI of +1.061, but we also know when comparing Tidbits numbers to CPC released weekly data that Tidbits has been 0.2-0.3 too warm with its Region 4 numbers, and it has varied in magnitude but has been a little too cold with warmer areas. Because of that, the TNI may actually be as high as +1.2 or higher and steadily climbing. This look below would certainly support that idea...
View attachment 5806
It's everything we've already been talking about for a while in this thread...So in other words....? lol
OK, more of the same thing, got it!It's everything we've already been talking about for a while in this thread...
1974 seems to be a big analog used for this upcoming spring seasonJanuary's SOI came in at the 5th highest value ever since recording began, behind 1939, 1962, 1974, and 2011
Is the pattern flip of the MJO related (at all) to the bouts of cold weather we are expecting in February?View attachment 5803
Here is the Euro projection of the MJO through the end of February. We see it in a low to mid amplification through the western Pacific now. That continues through at least the first half of February before it deamplifies and heads toward the "circle of death". Once it is there, the La Nina background state will have nothing holding it back from being the pattern driver for the pattern as we head into March and April. This is a classic configuration for holding the pattern suppressed until the start of spring severe season so that the polar jet does not shift north of Dixie Alley until it does what it wants to in March and April, and we have seen this in several of the high profile analog years previously mentioned in this thread.
Where do you see these analogs that show 2011, 1974, etc?1974 seems to be a big analog used for this upcoming spring season
Cips using it... one of the years .Where do you see these analogs that show 2011, 1974, etc?