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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

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I don't usually find myself agreeing with Reed, but he's right here. This is New orleans to go along with the earlier posted Jackson sounding. Very strong capping inversion that will weaken as the warm sector continues to advect north and the cold front pushes closer. Fully expect the cap to break later, and when it does the surface based storms will organize themselves a lot more than the elevated storms currently are.
 
PDS watch coming for North Alabama
 
xJownage said:
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I don't usually find myself agreeing with Reed, but he's right here. This is New orleans to go along with the earlier posted Jackson sounding. Very strong capping inversion that will weaken as the warm sector continues to advect north and the cold front pushes closer. Fully expect the cap to break later, and when it does the surface based storms will organize themselves a lot more than the elevated storms currently are.
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Things will stay capped along the coast. It was always forecasted to do so. I haven't seen a Jackson sounding since 12z when they were on the other side of the warm front.
 
From janetjanet998 on AMWX

145 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121845Z - 122015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CURRENTLY OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...A MCS MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND
PRODUCED NUMEROUS TDS SIGNATURES. THIS SAME CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS
PRODUCED A TDS MORE RECENTLY (~1830Z) IN WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS SAME LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE
AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA HAS DESTABILIZED ACROSS THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND CONTINUED MOISTENING/WARMING IS EXPECTED AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THEREFORE, THIS ONGOING MCS IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AND LIKELY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT
MOVES INTO ALABAMA.

A 997MB MESO-LOW HAS FORMED IN SOUTHEAST AR/WESTERN MS. THIS HAS
ACTED TO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THESE
STORMS. THIS HAS LED TO VERY LARGE 0-1 SRH VALUES NEAR 700 M2/S2 PER
GWX VWP. DAMAGING WINDS AND QLCS TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT WITH THIS MCS AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THIS ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF THIS OCCURS, A SIGNIFICANT,
THREAT WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY.

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH IN
MISSISSIPPI.
 
Kory said:
Things will stay capped along the coast. It was always forecasted to do so. I haven't seen a Jackson sounding since 12z when they were on the other side of the warm front.
Click to expand...
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18Z Jackson sounding also showing that strong cap. And yes, NO is likely to remain capped, agreed there but further north it's very unlikely.
 
Kory said:
Things will stay capped along the coast. It was always forecasted to do so. I haven't seen a Jackson sounding since 12z when they were on the other side of the warm front.
Click to expand...

Capture.PNG

Capping has weakened a little bit, but it's still pretty strong. Helps to explain why the OWS stuff in MS is struggling.
 
Like I said earlier, it makes a lot of sense that there was not an upgrade to high risk. it might come later, but right now it seems like the ingredients just aren't there.
 
OK. At 1 pm, Demopolis was 76/69 & Tuscaloosa 64/60. The front is on the move north. 2 PM is right around the corner.
 
xJownage said:
Whoever said the warm sector was going to be warmer than the models were showing, more like 80s than mid 70s, You nailed it. Seeing low 80s covering southern MS and AL.
Click to expand...

Yeah, there was a lot of models that were spitting mid 80s into the I-20 corridor by 4-7pm in Alabama
 
xJownage said:
Whoever said the warm sector was going to be warmer than the models were showing, more like 80s than mid 70s, You nailed it. Seeing low 80s covering southern MS and AL.
Click to expand...
It's a trend that I've noticed this season more so than any other. Maybe because of how warm the Gulf is...

Watch those cells sliding NE from Louisiana into Southern MS....
 
Getting the feeling that the cluster coming out of MS will ride the warm front in AL.
 
Kory said:
It's a trend that I've noticed this season more so than any other. Maybe because of how warm the Gulf is...

Watch those cells sliding NE from Louisiana into Southern MS....
Click to expand...
They look elevated at the moment. Are you expecting the really strong cap down there to break and allow them to become more surface based?
 
Warm front is definitely making good progress as it moves north.

The meso-low helping winds back more is definitely NOT what we need. We're quickly getting all the ingredients together for a high-end event. Let's hope there's some kind of unrecognized fly in the ointment because right now things are lining up in exactly the wrong way (if you want to avoid a tornado outbreak).

IMO, zero question that the threat risk has increased and uncertainty has decreased. Don't know if it will cause the SPC to pull a trigger on a high risk and don't really care. There is a very high ceiling for this event and everyone should be aware of that.
 
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