• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

I thought the HRRR is the next thing you trust after the GFS lines up...
 
Kory said:
And the CAMs (NSSL and ARW) are showing a stunt northward progression of the warm front trapping it in Northern MS/AL, but has some wicked cells riding that thermal boundary. Very 4/24/10-esque with long tracked supercells across MS/AL.

uh25_max.us_se.png


uh25_max.us_se.png
Click to expand...
Looks like it keeps everything south of the Tennessee River. Or am I drawing too many conclusions?
 
Lori said:
Very incorrect assessment!! Maybe you need to reread that thread
Click to expand...

I will say this, as a weather geek, I have in a sense been guilty of "rooting for" violent weather like tornado outbreaks and hurricanes to reach their ceiling, not that I'm wishing death and destruction on people, but because I like to be amazed by what the atmosphere can do, and I know that I have no control over it one way or the other.

That said, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has significantly tempered my enthusiasm. I didn't chase the March 28th event just south of my backyard so as not to fly in the face of stay-at-home orders in both Wisconsin and Illinois (although the morning convection made that a less agonizing decision). Just the thought of the logistics of trying to shelter from tornadoes and dealing with the aftermath; with first responders and hospitals already overtaxed, is heartbreaking.

Tornadoes at least come, you take cover, they pass. There's not a siren that goes off, an alert on your phone, and a TV cut-in that warns you when you're within six feet of someone with the coronavirus.
 
gangstonc said:
Looks like it keeps everything south of the Tennessee River. Or am I drawing too many conclusions?
Click to expand...
I think pinpointing where exactly the boundaries set up will definitely be the morning of kind of deal. Multiple rounds of storms reinforce the warm front south of the TN river on the WRF models. But that can fluctuate. I think the main thing to take away is the nasty atmosphere that will be along and south of that warm front. That has violent tornado potential...hands down.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I will say this, as a weather geek, I have in a sense been guilty of "rooting for" violent weather like tornado outbreaks and hurricanes to reach their ceiling, not that I'm wishing death and destruction on people, but because I like to be amazed by what the atmosphere can do, and I know that I have no control over it one way or the other.

That said, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has significantly tempered my enthusiasm. I didn't chase the March 28th event just south of my backyard so as not to fly in the face of stay-at-home orders in both Wisconsin and Illinois (although the morning convection made that a less agonizing decision). Just the thought of the logistics of trying to shelter from tornadoes and dealing with the aftermath; with first responders and hospitals already overtaxed, is heartbreaking.

Tornadoes at least come, you take cover, they pass. There's not a siren that goes off, an alert on your phone, and a TV cut-in that warns you when you're within six feet of someone with the coronavirus.
Click to expand...

Not to downplay the seriousness of the coronavirus, but for someone who lives in a mobile home (like a lot of people in the highest risk area do), I think going to a shelter is the clear better option. There's the risk that you might be exposed to the virus, and that might make you sick, and you might develop serious complications. But if you're in a mobile home during a strong tornado, you're almost certainly going to die.

The coronavirus might actually be a mitigating factor in this, kind of like it was in Jonesboro a couple of weeks ago: far fewer people out on the roads in vehicles, far fewer large gatherings in buildings with large span roofs that are vulnerable to tornadoes, etc. Obviously a lot of people are already overloaded with anxiety and having this on top of it just makes it worse, but a lot of people are going to be closer to home and safe shelter than they would be during a normal Easter Sunday.

I guess this came across as cynical rather than optimistic, but I really was trying to find a silver lining.
 
TornadoFan said:
Looks like we got our failure modes.
Click to expand...

Disagree strongly. No cold pooling, no backbuilding of convection, and steeper lapse rates are advecting from the SW. If anything, this enhances a portion of the warm sector. Strong LLJ will allow rapid recovery of the atmosphere over a majority of MS/AL (perhaps even into TN).

But I guess he was quick to hit the send button on the tweeter before analyzing the rest of the run...
 
WRFs kinda make me think of a Palm Sunday 94 situation with a narrow corridor of absolute nastiness setting up in one place. Really don't like that. Still toward the end of the runs though, expect some change closer to go time.

There's a partially unfinished I-22 overpass a mile from here that hardly anyone uses with a relatively great view of the sky. Tempting to head over there if there's something a safe distance to the NW but I don't want to tempt Dixie.
 
Kory said:
Disagree strongly. No cold pooling, no backbuilding of convection, and steeper lapse rates are advecting from the SW. If anything, this enhances a portion of the warm sector. Strong LLJ will allow rapid recovery of the atmosphere over a majority of MS/AL

But I guess he was quick to hit the send button on the tweeter before analyzing the rest of the run...
Click to expand...
Yeah that "analysis" is really devoid of context. It's not gonna be like a couple of weeks ago where the convection worked over the warm sector and that was it. There's still plenty of instability ready to be transported up over the moderate risk area after it, which wasn't the case a couple of weeks ago. Big difference between Mississippi/Alabama and Illinois in that respect. That's a common enough feature of major severe weather events in the southeast that you'd think people would be aware of it...
 
warneagle said:
Yeah that "analysis" is really devoid of context. It's not gonna be like a couple of weeks ago where the convection worked over the warm sector and that was it. There's still plenty of instability ready to be transported up over the moderate risk area after it, which wasn't the case a couple of weeks ago. Big difference between Mississippi/Alabama and Illinois in that respect. That's a common enough feature of major severe weather events in the southeast that you'd think people would be aware of it...
Click to expand...
Kory said:
Valid 18z 4/24/10...
042418.png
Click to expand...
is it just me or does the trough appear to be a bit more compact than Sunday's?
 
MichelleH said:
Some have thrown around the 4/27/11 date, but what about 4/3/74? If we're starting to see the possibility of this many states affected...the whole thing is making me sick. :(
Click to expand...
03-04 April 1974 is the only outbreak in recent history that really ranks ahead of 27 April 2011. Had the morning convection cleared from TN
Lori said:
Very incorrect assessment!! Maybe you need to reread that thread
Click to expand...
There are more weather threads on the internet. I wasn't trying to single anyone out. However, I will defer to you here, the admin, and delete the post. I appreciate you allowing me to be a member here, and I sincerely apologize for offending you and/or any of the members on Talk Weather.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top