• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

If thermo starts to look especially favorable in Tennessee it's going to be very concerning since the shear profile there is ridiculous. Could see a MDT for Memphis and Nashville honestly
 
Yeah I get big time 4/24 vibes from this. Multiple extended rounds of tornadic supercells, starting surprisingly early in MS, in almost the exact same area.
 
Equus said:
Yeah I get big time 4/24 vibes from this. Multiple extended rounds of tornadic supercells, starting surprisingly early in MS, in almost the exact same area.
Click to expand...
4/24 vibes, with a nearly maxed out ceiling. Every run has me more and more concerned of the cold front having tornadic supercells as well, the NAM 3k is showing way more shear than the linear nature it's depicting would indicate. I really do see the tornado threat expanding north into Tennessee.
 
12z Euro spit out a pocket of nearly 1200 0-3km SRH SW of Nashville, which is surely overdone but HALF that would still be extremely high end; would honestly be shocked if Tennessee didn't get in on the action big time if there's any hint of instability there. Which with these dymamics, would be a little surprised if there wasn't.
 
Aaaand 00z NAM wants the warm sector into Kentucky. Not really buying into that yet but if it becomes a trend, could really see some issues up that way. Getting significant instability in an area with those wind profiles is bad news to say the least
 
Some have thrown around the 4/27/11 date, but what about 4/3/74? If we're starting to see the possibility of this many states affected...the whole thing is making me sick. :(
 
It's not going to be anywhere near as widespread as the '74 Super Outbreak. That stretched all the way from the Gulf Coast to Canada.
 
Equus said:
Aaaand 00z NAM wants the warm sector into Kentucky. Not really buying into that yet but if it becomes a trend, could really see some issues up that way. Getting significant instability in an area with those wind profiles is bad news to say the least
Click to expand...
Think it’s good chance be honest. It’s been trend last 2 half days ... it’s picking up on that ... 0z nam verbatim is sicking be honest large tornado outbreak simple as that
 
And the CAMs (NSSL and ARW) are showing a stunt northward progression of the warm front trapping it in Northern MS/AL, but has some wicked cells riding that thermal boundary. Very 4/24/10-esque with long tracked supercells across MS/AL.

uh25_max.us_se.png


uh25_max.us_se.png
 
Not at all liking that every UH swath map today shows the crosshairs pointed right at the back yard.
 
Kory said:
There's your modeled outbreak by the CAMs...

Now we wait to see where the boundaries set up......
Click to expand...
Yep, the position of the original boundary and a little south will be where max low lvl shear is....I think the NAM is overdoing the instability getting that far north..say Nashville, at least that quickly...at the end of that day, unless there is some other surprise, that will prob determine where the high risk end up.
 
Kory said:
And the CAMs (NSSL and ARW) are showing a stunt northward progression of the warm front trapping it in Northern MS/AL, but has some wicked cells riding that thermal boundary. Very 4/24/10-esque with long tracked supercells across MS/AL.

uh25_max.us_se.png


uh25_max.us_se.png
Click to expand...
I know not to look at the locations but trends, but that’s right over the top of me. :/
 
brianc33710 said:
I guess one other thing I'm trying to say, beyond the fact that I think 27 April 2011 is a generational/meteorology career type of even, is those less informed weather geeks (no shade, see below) who get high on the hype leading up to that event. Looking back thru these weather threads from 9 yrs ago, some of the bloggers & members kept hoping that the event WOULD live up to its potential, and went into overdrive once the storms began to fire.

Of course, that event did live up to 90-95% of its potential, so these overeager members did indeed get what they "wanted." However they had failed to anticipate the hundreds of deaths, the thousands of injuries, and the billions of dollars that would result from that superoutbreak. So, from a fellow weather geek (but more informed) like myself, PLEASE be careful for what you wish for. Once you get it, the guilt and sadness could last you a lifetime
Click to expand...
Very incorrect assessment!! Maybe you need to reread that thread
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top