• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

xJownage said:
I believe you're referring to 5/20, and if that's the case it wasn't the early day convection that saved anybody, but the unexpectedly stout cap that killed every storm that tried to fire in the warm sector. Morning convection isn't necessarily something that will stop an event when you have such

I remembered the overall situation, but not the date or why there was the Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. Sorry about that. :(

Tennie said:
Indeed, this might be more along the lines of 4/8/98 or 4/15/11 or the like (perhaps once a decade or so) than a super outbreak like 4/3/74 or 4/27/11.
Click to expand...

I think maybe this event would resemble a 15 April 2011 with an EF-4 or 5 added in to the event, MAYBE 2 4/5s at most.

Let me restate what I had written earlier, as I appear to have offended members on here that was not intended. There is a fine line between enthusiasm over severe weather and, while unintentionally, forgetting the consequences of what the storms leave in their wake. Please remember this during severe weather events.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
I'm wondering if the MDT might be stretched a little east... not that a strongly worded enhanced isn't still pretty indicative of a pretty higher end threat
 
Equus said:
I'm wondering if the MDT might be stretched a little east... not that a strongly worded enhanced isn't still pretty indicative of a pretty higher end threat
Click to expand...
I see the Moderate expanding eastward and a High Risk added to the forecast, maybe tomorrow morning/afternoon?
 
Bevo said:
This is what I've been monitoring a bit more today. Things look pretty quiet in N-TX/OK until tomorrow afternoon when there's some spotty storm activity. The thing I'm growing concerned with is that I'm starting to see much higher STP values overnight that have just started coming in on the HRRR that were not there this morning.

This is a sounding around Garland/Richardson line slightly NE of Dallas at 10 PM Saturday. Around the same time frame, I'm seeing STPs in the 6s and 7s in far SW Texas.

lm0Hk9P.png

The activity is not super widespread all things considered, but there's a decent cluster of cells in the DFW Metroplex during that time frame that appear to be more tornadic in nature.
Click to expand...
HRRR looks like the only guidance that is high on tomorrow. Most other guidance show lots of cell interaction and upscale growth.
 
If confidence is exceptionally high by the second D2 outlook high could certainly be on the table, though their ridiculous rarity (only twice before, April 27 not even being one of them) makes me wonder if they would be confident enough to pull it. Even the slightest hint that storm mode or morning convection would interfere tends to lead to a strongly worded moderate with "high risk was considered" wording
 
Equus said:
If confidence is exceptionally high by the second D2 outlook high could certainly be on the table, though their ridiculous rarity (only twice before, April 27 not even being one of them) makes me wonder if they would be confident enough to pull it. Even the slightest hint that storm mode or morning convection would interfere tends to lead to a strongly worded moderate with "high risk was considered" wording
Click to expand...
It is funny that while that the idea of any question about the event would prevent a high risk on day 2...is exactly the reason why we did not get a high risk on day2 for the one day, if any, there should ever be a high risk on Day2.
 
Kory said:
HRRR looks like the only guidance that is high on tomorrow. Most other guidance show lots of cell interaction and upscale growth.
Click to expand...

Guess we'll find out more tomorrow morning/afternoon. There were big differences in terms of high temps vs. storm coverage throughout the day across the models. I don't think we'll be anything like what could be unfolding in Dixie by any stretch, but it could be possible depending on what happens during the day tomorrow that DFW Metro eastward could see some yucky stuff once the sun goes down. I'm curious to see what some of our local weather folks start saying in the morning and how the models change.
 
I can't help but think about some of the big busts we have seen in the past several months, especially the huge Texas one, I don't remember the date, just remember how bad the Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency was...the whole thing was a complete farce.
 
Equus said:
If confidence is exceptionally high by the second D2 outlook high could certainly be on the table, though their ridiculous rarity (only twice before, April 27 not even being one of them) makes me wonder if they would be confident enough to pull it. Even the slightest hint that storm mode or morning convection would interfere tends to lead to a strongly worded moderate with "high risk was considered" wording
Click to expand...
Yeah, you're right. Looking back the SPC didn't pull the high risk handle until early AM 27 April. Because 25-26 April had "underperformed" under the High level, and the forecast morning rain early on 27, they waited until Day 1.
 
Richardjacks said:
It is funny that while that the idea of any question about the event would prevent a high risk on day 2...is exactly the reason why we did not get a high risk on day2 for the one day, if any, there should ever be a high risk on Day2.
Click to expand...

And then the limiting factors they were concerned about might have wound up making the event even worse due to boundary interactions from the AM round; what a ridiculous day
 
Richardjacks said:
I can't help but think about some of the big busts we have seen in the past several months, especially the huge Texas one, I don't remember the date, just remember how bad the Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency was...the whole thing was a complete farce.
Click to expand...
Per xJownage:
"I believe you're referring to 5/20 [2019, if you're going back to last year], and if that's the case it wasn't the early day convection that saved anybody, but the unexpectedly stout cap that killed every storm that tried to fire in the warm sector."
 
that is tru
brianc33710 said:
Per xJownage:
I believe you're referring to 5/20, and if that's the case it wasn't the early day convection that saved anybody, but the unexpectedly stout cap that killed every storm that tried to fire in the warm sector. Morning convection isn't necessarily something that will stop an event when you have such .
Click to expand...
I can remember an event or two in Alabama where a very stout cap kept convection from firing right up until the front arrives. Everything was just right but the lid just would not budge. I do not think that will be an issue here as the dramatic changes the flow aloft will undergo well before the front due to the phasing of the two streams. However, I remember April 8 98 so well...we were just beginning to wonder if the cap was going to break, then a small tstorm popped up in east central Miss...as they say, the rest is history. You need a cap that is strong...but not too strong....everything has to be just right.
 
There's such a fine balance between a cap being so strong that virtually nothing forms and a cap weak enough to let stuff form en masse and pile up into a big messy cluster... those days where there's a perfect balance are frightening.
 
brianc33710 said:
I see the Moderate expanding eastward and a High Risk added to the forecast, maybe tomorrow morning/afternoon?
Click to expand...
If there ends up being a high risk, I don't think SPC will put it in until Sunday morning. I think that is usually a "day of" thing. Even for April 27, 2011, I am pretty sure they didn't issue the high risk for parts AL, MS, TN, GA until at least like 12am on the 27th.
 
Bama Ravens said:
If there ends up being a high risk, I don't think SPC will put it in until Sunday morning. I think that is usually a "day of" thing. Even for April 27, 2011, I am pretty sure they didn't issue the high risk for parts AL, MS, TN, GA until at least like 12am on the 27th.
Click to expand...
With the amount of confidence in this event, I wouldn't be surprised to see a high come by 1730z tomorrow. There's not really a model outlier for failure here, even the squall heavy NAM 3km is showing violent supercells. That being said, I certainly think it's more likely you're right.
 
Bama Ravens said:
If there ends up being a high risk, I don't think SPC will put it in until Sunday morning. I think that is usually a "day of" thing. Even for April 27, 2011, I am pretty sure they didn't issue the high risk for parts AL, MS, TN, GA until at least like 12am on the 27th.
Click to expand...
xJownage said:
With the amount of confidence in this event, I wouldn't be surprised to see a high come by 1730z tomorrow. There's not really a model outlier for failure here, even the squall heavy NAM 3km is showing violent supercells. That being said, I certainly think it's more likely you're right.
Click to expand...
I'll say that the SPC will stretch the MOD risk eastward, though the HIGH could wait until Sun AM.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top