Severe WX January 10-12, 2020 Severe Weather Forecast Thread

Thanks everyone. I like to watch the development of storms at a distance on the models and radars even when I don't have as much in-depth knowledge of the mechanics. I'm curious to see what the SPC update will look like tomorrow and if there will be any upgrades. At the beginning of the week in terms of TX it appeared to be more of an east TX event but now it looks like some of the threat could pull westward if the slower forecast turns out?
 
Yeah some of the newer runs are increasing the threat for DFW and eastern TX for Friday, and honestly those first few cells that develop before the system starts going linear can be a real issue... Alto being fresh in my mind, for example. Saturday looks potentially pretty high end but it's definitely looking like Friday could pull some surprises as well. Further west than initially projected even
 
Equus said:
Yeah some of the newer runs are increasing the threat for DFW and eastern TX for Friday, and honestly those first few cells that develop before the system starts going linear can be a real issue... Alto being fresh in my mind, for example. Saturday looks potentially pretty high end but it's definitely looking like Friday could pull some surprises as well. Further west than initially projected even
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The NAM model David R. from TX Storm Chasers pulled about an hour ago looked kinda scary for DFW with isolated cells popping up ahead of the front in the 3 - 7 PM window. He said the ones that pop up during that time could have some good tornado potential--could it harbor even more, God forbid, intensity than the 10/20 one? This system seems to have more ingredients in play than on that day.
 
The intensity of the storms rolling through eastern Texas into LA, southern AR, and western MS late Friday into the very early morning hours Saturday is very disturbing! A very sad situation for them with parameters maxing out during this time.
 
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CommanderinGrief said:
welcome. i lurked for a long time before making an account last year. don't post much because my knowledge is pretty limited, but boy its interesting to read the discussion. sometimes they seem to skew certain areas (ive seen alot of people completely ignore friday afternoon/evening for this event) but it is still interesting and great way to learn :)
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I will be watching with you guys. We are usually just west of the action from these systems here in the Austin area, but the weather is always unpredictable.
 
Not going to chase on Friday due to my own logistics but a triangle from Dallas to Texarkana to Shreveport would be my target. Will be chasing Saturday starting very early in the morning somewhere from Jackson to Tupelo as the system goes negative tilt then races off. Models have been very consistent for about 5 days so I would be surprised if it doesn't live up to the hype. Somewhere, somebody in this region will be impacted by this system no doubt
 
Dallas metroplex has also been added into the 30% sig severe hatched zone, looks like Ft. Worth was upgraded to slight risk.
 
Tonight's EURO is nothing short of apocalyptic. I'm sorry for all the images, but you have to have a look at it.

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The consesus hitting very hard on the LA, MS area tonight should go high risk in future outlooks provided no major changes.
 
I can agree with this after looking over the past 3 model runs of the GFS/ EC/ NAM. They have been seeming to want to shove the higher threat south of North Alabama and into North Central and further south. Sure it can change with such kinematics coming into play, but all the severe parameters such as EHI/STP/ CAPE/ Surface low placement and the Td's near 65F or higher from about Marion County to Cullman and south seems to be more conducive to a robust tornadic threat attm if cells can become discrete.

The system seems to lean more linear than more discrete IMO.Very strong QLCS reguardless.


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Taylor Campbell said:
The consesus hitting very hard on the LA, MS area tonight should go high risk in future outlooks provided no major changes.
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I disagree. The pronounced veer-backing of the vertical wind profile displayed in forecast soundings argues against long-lived tornadic supercells. QLCS should nonetheless be capable of producing widespread damaging winds and embedded tornadoes, some possibly strong. SPC however is unlikely to high risk without a classic, steadily veering with height wind profile.
 

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It's going to be borderline for Atlanta I think. If it comes in just a little faster, it'll be worse, if it comes in just a little slower, it'll just be rain and thunderstorms. There's still the threat of damaging winds and embedded tornadoes, but like I said before, it won't be nearly the story from out west.
 
From Matt Grantham:

Significant severe weather is likely across our forecast area on
Saturday as a powerful negatively-tilted trough moves from Texas
toward the Ohio Valley. Some model guidance, particularly the NAM,
appears to be underestimating surface temperatures in the warm
sector. Even taking the NAM at face value, forecast soundings now
indicate the potential for deep convection with CAPE up to the 200mb
level. Our forecast is for temperatures to reach the lower to
perhaps mid 70s which is 3-5F higher than the NAM. With MLCAPE of
600-1200 J/kg and strong to extreme low-level shear, the expected
QLCS will be capable of producing widespread damaging winds and
numerous embedded tornadoes. Some of these tornadoes could be
strong. This potential is supported by the SREF, with mean STP
values exceeding 3 across most of our coverage area. The potential
for supercells ahead of the line remains unclear, but if they do
form and maintain good updraft intensity, they could easily become
tornadic. Perhaps the greatest potential for wind damage could
lie in our northwest counties, where height falls and forcing will
be the strongest.
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