Archive Severe Weather 2019

[bwalk]

6/29

8000 J/Kg CAPE bomb in N.Dakota!!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The severe weather parameters are incredibly insane across North Dakota!

Check out this 21Z sounding!

 

[Equus]

Holy moly what a hodo. Could get dangerous in a little while

 

[TornadoFan]

Check out the cell north of Carson, ND. Heck of a hook on it.

 

[SilentShadow87]

What are everyone's thoughts on the Dayton, OH tornado being rated EF4? I haven't seen any photos of obvious EF4 damage, although I'm probably just missing them.

 

[Equus]

From the survey text it seems as though the line of apartments along the river were determined to be EF4, but the aerials showed second story damage that I'm a little surprised they went that high; they did mention shredded trees added contextual support for the upgrade though so surely there was something at ground level I can't see from the aerials. I have no doubt at all that it was violent-capable, just a little intrigued they bumped it to that when ratings are so conservative in recent years. It certainly wasn't a very spatially large area of violent damage.

The damage in the linked photo of EF4 rated damage certainly does not show obvious DIs that high (would need total removal of top two floors, I see mainly roof damage and a few upper story walls collapsed) on the main apartment complex but I suspect there were trees heavily debarked somewhere in here that weighed into it. I still doubt most WFOs would go anywhere near that high with this particular damage.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Yeah I'm not saying the rating should be lowered, just that it's a bit liberal, similar to the second Pilger tornado back in 2014. For what it's worth I think a marginal EF4 rating is justified based on the shredded trees.

 

[warneagle]

Probably not the kind of fireworks they wanted on Canada Day.

 

[warneagle]

 

[warneagle]

We’ve had some pretty significant flash flooding here in the DC metro area this morning. This is a few blocks down the street from my office.

 

[warneagle]

I guess this probably explains a lot. They recorded .69” of rain in 11 minutes at DCA this morning.

 

[bwalk]

I guess this probably explains a lot. They recorded .69” of rain in 11 minutes at DCA this morning.

I can't even imagine the driving visibility issues associated with trying to drive in metro DC with .69 of rain falling in 11 minutes. Unbelievable.

 

[warneagle]

I can't even imagine the driving visibility issues associated with trying to drive in metro DC with .69 of rain falling in 11 minutes. Unbelievable.

Thankfully I wasn’t (I still got soaked walking the block and a half from the train station to my office). However, the situation on the Metro wasn’t much better...

 

[warneagle]

A pretty intense waterspout making landfall in Corsica in the Mediterranean Sea earlier today:

 

[Austin Dawg]

What do you guys think about the upcoming fall season? Is it going to be busy?

 

[JayF]

Enhanced Outlook for ND, SD and Montana today.

 

[Kory]

What do you guys think about the upcoming fall season? Is it going to be busy?

Depends on how ENSO and the Pacific evolves. Right now, we've declined out of a El Nino. Some signs point to it resurging and some don't. We'll have to see how the next few months progress with westerly wind bursts.

 

[warneagle]

Upgrade to Day 1 moderate in Wisconsin and Minnesota. 15% hatched tor plus the risk of a serious derecho.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Yeah we're actually overdue for a derecho here in southern Ontario. The fact that the SPC is mentioning a derecho risk is kind of worrying.

 

[warneagle]

This environment is insane. We could be talking 5000+ CAPE and 500+ SRH in that little sliver of MN/WI. Hopefully it doesn’t stay discrete for too long or this could be problematic.