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Severe Weather 2019 (3 Viewers)


Equus

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1,180
Location
Saragossa, AL
Also a PDS tornado warning on one of those isolated cells out ahead, probably on a boundary based on surface obs. 01z upgrades are quite rare
 

Equus

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Saragossa, AL
BMX mentions that severe may have to be added to the HWO for Thursday (6/20) with mainly a wind and hail threat, since shear profiles will be fairly decent for June here but mostly unidirectional; that said, I've successfully backyard chased tornadoes/spin-up vortices in AL these last two years on June 21 and June 22 respectively, so I'm certainly intrigued by any trends suggesting low level shear ahaha.
 
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Kory

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2,872
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
I think we need a thread for this Thursday in Alabama...not your typical late-June upper air pattern
Yep, some potent shear/instability in place. Upscale growth from the storms to our northwest on Wednesday will push into AL for Thursday. But shear vectors don't support fully linear with the complex.
 

Equus

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Saragossa, AL
June has been interesting lately... 2017 had Cindy dropping some tornadoes then we had a small tornado event June 22 of last year. I caught a super brief/weak anticyclonic tornado off the north side of a dying shower on a backyard chase and Cullman county had an EF2. Guess the streak might continue.
 

Equus

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Saragossa, AL
For what it's worth, from BMX...

A consistent synoptic signal has existed the past few days with regards to an amplifying shortwave moving across the Great Plains southeastward into the mid-Mississippi River Valley overnight Wednesday. Positioning of favorable mid-level flow around the base of the trough suggests 40-50 kts of westerly winds at 500 mb across our area on Thursday as mid-level lapse rates steepen (~6.5-7.5 C/km) from the Southern Plains. With pre-existing low-level moisture in place, afternoon heating is expected to destabilize the troposphere such that 2,500-3,500 J/kg SBCAPE is possible with ~40-45 kts effective bulk shear. Severe weather is possible as a result of these shear/instability values, as well as height falls & cooling temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough.

Forecast hodographs suggest quasi-unidirectional flow with mean winds out of the west, with storm motions south of east. Enough ingestion of storm-relative helicity in the 0-3 km layer suggests discrete updrafts capable of developing mesocyclones, especially if surface wind vectors can back more southwesterly. This factor, as well as 500 mb temperatures approaching -10 C, suggests severe
hail would be a threat as well as damaging wind gusts. Forecast uncertainty of antecedent convective evolution and positioning of mesoscale features (such as surface boundaries) limits any
predictability for specific areas under greater probability for severe weather. (For example, an uncontaminated atmosphere will have better chances of severe weather coverage that afternoon versus ongoing convection during the morning limiting available instability over particular areas.) Thus, for now, a mention of severe weather will be added to the HWO with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats across all of Central Alabama until further forecast refinements are made. At this time, a tornado threat cannot be ruled out as there are varying scenarios for how this system will evolve.
 

andyhb

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66
Location
Norman, OK
That's a pretty stout shortwave moving through the Mid South/Lower OH Valley Wednesday afternoon/evening into Thursday morning. Don't see a lot of waves like that with 60 kt 500 mb jet maxes this time of year and I would not be shocked at all to see some sig severe with that.
 

Equus

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Location
Saragossa, AL
Here is 09z Thursday in my area on the new NAM run. About as good as it gets here in June. Seeing an analog to Kentucky from 5/30/04 on there is uh, interesting...

1853
 
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StormStalker

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Tuscumbia, AL
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SKYWARN® Volunteer,
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
843 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

TNC149-180200-
/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190618T0200Z/
Rutherford TN-
843 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY...

At 843 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 10 miles southeast of Murfreesboro, moving northeast at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
 

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