akt1985
Member
The line south of Cleveland, Ohio is being warned for 70 MPH winds.
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
akt1985
Member
Right now the line that started in Michigan and now is approaching northern West Virginia is below what would be considered Derecho criteria with the current batch of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. I’m sure the experts will re-examine the wind reports in the coming days to see if this complex turns out to be a Derecho or a run of the mill MCS.
Kds86z
Member
5% tor hatch may have verified yesterday if EF2
warneagle
Member
we're getting absolutely pounded here right now. this reminds me more of being in a hurricane than a summer thunderstorm.
Kds86z
Member
akt1985
Member
There is a large Severe Thunderstorm Watch out this afternoon that covers most of West Virginia and Virginia, including Metro Washington DC.
joshoctober16
Member
theres just a bunch of very weak supercells with broad rotation stuck in one place in atlantic canada.
very strange to look at , ive seen these on the great lake over water before but first time ive seen them form and stay on land.
very strange to look at , ive seen these on the great lake over water before but first time ive seen them form and stay on land.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Next week could be interesting. GFS noting strong low level shear again in the Northeast with a unusually persistent NW flow pattern. Global models have underestimated instability a few times recently I've noticed so watch out on the 9th. 250+ 0-1km SRH at times. Not a guaranteed and models could very well be estimating instability well this time but I'd err on the side of caution. Let's see.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
little discussion/write-up on the potential for two rather synoptically evident svr weather events this following week.
Monday: A synoptically evident 500 mb trough ejects into portions of the Northern Plains, containing 50+ kt flow. While this day is close to high res CAM support, models have serious caveats. Let's dive into those.
While we do have decent flow aloft at play, the devil is always in the details. There's alright height falls that would support lift but then you look at your 700 mb temperatures and you see this...
Yep. Nearly 10C-15C 700s across the majority of where that warm sector is breached, hence why not many globals have QPF signals at all. This will make it tough for any supercellular development to take place. So while the main synoptic picture DOES favor severe storms across the Northern Plains, these two major caveats will make it tough to discern if supercells will fire. Will CAMs help us any more on this highly uncertain day? I would hope so but knowing them this year, it might make it harder (and that isn't anyone's fault but a certain 4 word that starts with c and ends with s...had to say it, sorry)
Wednesday: flow is actually a bit more zonalish honestly rather than a true NW flow regime for the NE but regardless it has characteristics of both. The right exit region of the jet directly impinges robust 60F+ dewpoints across portions of W NY/C NY.
Taking a look at our height falls, they're pretty decent. The strongest just to the west but given the forcing at play, I'd say convection in this environment wouldn't be a problem. QPF signals reflect this as convection, a bit more cellular in nature does end up firing in portions of W NY.
So what's the issue that prevents any further wording on this threat so far if the synoptics have something going for it? 700 mb temps again, but this time, it's not necessarily in the way you think it would affect it. All of our mid level moisture is pretty lackluster and combined with 10C temps across W NY, instability is severely limited in the area despite near 70F dewpoints.
Should this issue lessen, attention will be needed for this one. Strong low level shear will be in combination, sounding taken from W NY in the vicinity of a cell in the environment modeled here. Notice how those temperature lines as you go up slightly push out and limit the parcel from rising? Combine that with saturated mid levels too at times and you just don't get instability. But given this system should be able to pull in good moisture, I'd watch for thermodynamics mainly over the next few days on this one. If they improve, it's another "watch out" day for areas previously affected by yesterday's severe weather outbreak. Those mid level lapse rates are pretty horrific too. But it's a threat that can pose something isolated if things work out.
One last note is that better thermodynamics DO exist but that's within NE OH/NW PA. And that area is plagued by 700s as well as a lack of decent lift with the height falls just off to the north. Updates will be probably tomorrow morning with the latest model guidance. I'll try be consistent with these short, easy to digest breakdowns later on in the future.
Monday: A synoptically evident 500 mb trough ejects into portions of the Northern Plains, containing 50+ kt flow. While this day is close to high res CAM support, models have serious caveats. Let's dive into those.
While we do have decent flow aloft at play, the devil is always in the details. There's alright height falls that would support lift but then you look at your 700 mb temperatures and you see this...
Yep. Nearly 10C-15C 700s across the majority of where that warm sector is breached, hence why not many globals have QPF signals at all. This will make it tough for any supercellular development to take place. So while the main synoptic picture DOES favor severe storms across the Northern Plains, these two major caveats will make it tough to discern if supercells will fire. Will CAMs help us any more on this highly uncertain day? I would hope so but knowing them this year, it might make it harder (and that isn't anyone's fault but a certain 4 word that starts with c and ends with s...had to say it, sorry)
Wednesday: flow is actually a bit more zonalish honestly rather than a true NW flow regime for the NE but regardless it has characteristics of both. The right exit region of the jet directly impinges robust 60F+ dewpoints across portions of W NY/C NY.
Taking a look at our height falls, they're pretty decent. The strongest just to the west but given the forcing at play, I'd say convection in this environment wouldn't be a problem. QPF signals reflect this as convection, a bit more cellular in nature does end up firing in portions of W NY.
So what's the issue that prevents any further wording on this threat so far if the synoptics have something going for it? 700 mb temps again, but this time, it's not necessarily in the way you think it would affect it. All of our mid level moisture is pretty lackluster and combined with 10C temps across W NY, instability is severely limited in the area despite near 70F dewpoints.
Should this issue lessen, attention will be needed for this one. Strong low level shear will be in combination, sounding taken from W NY in the vicinity of a cell in the environment modeled here. Notice how those temperature lines as you go up slightly push out and limit the parcel from rising? Combine that with saturated mid levels too at times and you just don't get instability. But given this system should be able to pull in good moisture, I'd watch for thermodynamics mainly over the next few days on this one. If they improve, it's another "watch out" day for areas previously affected by yesterday's severe weather outbreak. Those mid level lapse rates are pretty horrific too. But it's a threat that can pose something isolated if things work out.
One last note is that better thermodynamics DO exist but that's within NE OH/NW PA. And that area is plagued by 700s as well as a lack of decent lift with the height falls just off to the north. Updates will be probably tomorrow morning with the latest model guidance. I'll try be consistent with these short, easy to digest breakdowns later on in the future.
Kds86z
Member
Ef2 in Detroit dang , then the new York ef2.
Kds86z
Member
13 tornadoes (2 EF2) this week to start the month off and we just hit 1200 for the year.
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WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Morning update on our threats.
Seems to me guidance has only trended stronger with warmer 700s in E ND and instability is continuing to look at rather lackluster as a result of these features. Nothing has really changed so this is a shorter post. Wednesday is downtrending a lot as a result of warmer 700s and even decreasing moisture return
Seems to me guidance has only trended stronger with warmer 700s in E ND and instability is continuing to look at rather lackluster as a result of these features. Nothing has really changed so this is a shorter post. Wednesday is downtrending a lot as a result of warmer 700s and even decreasing moisture return
akt1985
Member
Here in north Alabama, rain chances are actually slightly better, key word “slightly”, this weekend. However, any organized complexes of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening will be over eastern Tennessee.
1200 reports or 1200 confirmed?
Per Wikipedia it’s confirmed.
We’ve also surpassed the yearly average of reports as well: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/newimgs/torn-counts.png
slenker
Member
Doesn’t surprise me that this year has been fairly active in terms of total tornadoes, but it’s definitely lacking from a strong/violent standpoint. Enid and Kouts are the two that stick out to me, but nothing much else.
Yeah I’ve thought about that. In a way this year is like the reverse 2013. 2013 was one of, if not the least active year on record, yet you had might higher count of violent tornadoes.
Obviously the year isn’t over and it’s possible we get violent activity in the fall/winter season, but I believe our opinions on the likelihood of that happening are quite similar.
Don’t know if this has been talked about yet. But WeatherWise now has past radar functionality. You can view events back to I think 1995 now. Maybe we can create a thread for using that I know there’s a lot of People in here who would love to scope through old radar imagery