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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 6-14

Kds86z said:
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Yeah, i think I mentioned this. This type of profile with deep moisture depth may look poor for LP, but if you have a strong advecting dry slot in the area, all of this moisture is vented out completely. Even notable, that MCS AIDED the thermodynamic profile by putting a small clapping inversion in this area allowing for only a handful if prefrontal supercells to develop. Perfect balance
 
I thought I'd add my two cents in regards to the NWS Northern Indiana's warning efforts last night, since they're my home WFO.

I'd be very interested in hearing how they were last night in regards to staffing since they weren't affected by my understanding in the budget cuts, but I hope they do take some stuff away from their efforts last night, because it definitely wasn't great when it came to issuing Tornado Warning's. I know last night's setup was honestly quite unique in regards to common QLCS lines we get around here and how much was happening at once, but they still have to be better. I know it takes time to issue these warnings because you have to carve out the warning box, and enter in any extra information or text outside of the presets that WarnGen gives them (click here by the way if you want insight in how they issue these warnings), but there is definitely room for improvement.

I do feel for them however and their morale because of how beyond annoying and ignorant Max Velocity or Ryan Hall's fanbase can be in spamming these NWS offices social media comments saying "Max Velocity/Ryan Hall called the tornado eight minutes before you issued the warning."
 
Maxis_s said:
It's so weird to me that, despite the poor venting on hodographs and very high PWAT values, most tornadoes were completely clear of any precipitation.
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When you have skinny cape profiles due to a low LFC (anemic updrafts), combined with Bulk shear exceeding 50knots, you’re going to have extremely LP supercells regardless of how saturated your vertical profile is.

These supercells only survived because of the extreme forcing over the area plus no inversion layer, and thanks to a pronounced thermal boundary left behind by the afternoon MCS, produced multiple tornadoes.

Further west near the cold front, where forcing was even more extreme combined with parallel shear vectors, the Dixie Alley slop fest scenario verified immediately.
 
I admit I get very entertained about the argument over which outbreak verifies and all that on here. It's so laughable. because there's been outbreaks since 2023 that have verified.
 
I think maybe an upgrade to EF-4 is possible with Hebron/Kouts.

Looking at surrounding homes, they appeared to be nailed instead of anchor bolted (Could be wrong, drone footage doesn't seem to give a lot away) but they appear to have been farmhouses, which are very commonly straightnailed to the foundation.

Combined with the pretty good tree damage, and the slightly liberal nature of NWS Chicago, I think LE EF-4 might be on the table as of now. Pretty iffy given the foundation is CMU, but possible.

Take what I say with an entire saltshaker as well. I am not an expert
 
Summoning @buckeye05 @TH2002. I agree with this statement. I could be fine with either HE EF3 or LE EF4 honestly. Theres a very reasonable possibility that there could be 2 violent ratings before we’re done with the outbreak.
Ozonelayer said:
I think maybe an upgrade to EF-4 is possible with Hebron/Kouts.

Looking at surrounding homes, they appeared to be nailed instead of anchor bolted (Could be wrong, drone footage doesn't seem to give a lot away) but they appear to have been farmhouses, which are very commonly straightnailed to the foundation.

Combined with the pretty good tree damage, and the slightly liberal nature of NWS Chicago, I think LE EF-4 might be on the table as of now. Pretty iffy given the foundation is CMU, but possible.

Take what I say with an entire saltshaker as well. I am not an expert
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Brice W said:
^^^^^^Also make sure to look through the thread to see if duplicates were posted! We’ve seen this same tweet before posted 3-4 times now.
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There are 38 pages in this thread. I'm sure it's going to happen on the occasion.

Also, I tend to look back at least 3-4 pages to check. ( I might have missed it there, but who knows)
 
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