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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 6-14
- Thread starter Kds86z
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Kds86z
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WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yeah, i think I mentioned this. This type of profile with deep moisture depth may look poor for LP, but if you have a strong advecting dry slot in the area, all of this moisture is vented out completely. Even notable, that MCS AIDED the thermodynamic profile by putting a small clapping inversion in this area allowing for only a handful if prefrontal supercells to develop. Perfect balance
US_Highway15
Member
I thought I'd add my two cents in regards to the NWS Northern Indiana's warning efforts last night, since they're my home WFO.
I'd be very interested in hearing how they were last night in regards to staffing since they weren't affected by my understanding in the budget cuts, but I hope they do take some stuff away from their efforts last night, because it definitely wasn't great when it came to issuing Tornado Warning's. I know last night's setup was honestly quite unique in regards to common QLCS lines we get around here and how much was happening at once, but they still have to be better. I know it takes time to issue these warnings because you have to carve out the warning box, and enter in any extra information or text outside of the presets that WarnGen gives them (click here by the way if you want insight in how they issue these warnings), but there is definitely room for improvement.
I do feel for them however and their morale because of how beyond annoying and ignorant Max Velocity or Ryan Hall's fanbase can be in spamming these NWS offices social media comments saying "Max Velocity/Ryan Hall called the tornado eight minutes before you issued the warning."
I'd be very interested in hearing how they were last night in regards to staffing since they weren't affected by my understanding in the budget cuts, but I hope they do take some stuff away from their efforts last night, because it definitely wasn't great when it came to issuing Tornado Warning's. I know last night's setup was honestly quite unique in regards to common QLCS lines we get around here and how much was happening at once, but they still have to be better. I know it takes time to issue these warnings because you have to carve out the warning box, and enter in any extra information or text outside of the presets that WarnGen gives them (click here by the way if you want insight in how they issue these warnings), but there is definitely room for improvement.
I do feel for them however and their morale because of how beyond annoying and ignorant Max Velocity or Ryan Hall's fanbase can be in spamming these NWS offices social media comments saying "Max Velocity/Ryan Hall called the tornado eight minutes before you issued the warning."
jiharris0220
Member
When you have skinny cape profiles due to a low LFC (anemic updrafts), combined with Bulk shear exceeding 50knots, you’re going to have extremely LP supercells regardless of how saturated your vertical profile is.
These supercells only survived because of the extreme forcing over the area plus no inversion layer, and thanks to a pronounced thermal boundary left behind by the afternoon MCS, produced multiple tornadoes.
Further west near the cold front, where forcing was even more extreme combined with parallel shear vectors, the Dixie Alley slop fest scenario verified immediately.
jiharris0220
Member
I haven’t seen a forecast verify this perfectly since the March 31/April 1, 2023 Outbreak.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Give credit to the SPC, I was skeptical of this verifying but oh wow, it did.
US_Highway15
Member
w
This is why they're the best at what they do.
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Kds86z
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I admit I get very entertained about the argument over which outbreak verifies and all that on here. It's so laughable. because there's been outbreaks since 2023 that have verified.
Ozonelayer
Member
I think maybe an upgrade to EF-4 is possible with Hebron/Kouts.
Looking at surrounding homes, they appeared to be nailed instead of anchor bolted (Could be wrong, drone footage doesn't seem to give a lot away) but they appear to have been farmhouses, which are very commonly straightnailed to the foundation.
Combined with the pretty good tree damage, and the slightly liberal nature of NWS Chicago, I think LE EF-4 might be on the table as of now. Pretty iffy given the foundation is CMU, but possible.
Take what I say with an entire saltshaker as well. I am not an expert
Looking at surrounding homes, they appeared to be nailed instead of anchor bolted (Could be wrong, drone footage doesn't seem to give a lot away) but they appear to have been farmhouses, which are very commonly straightnailed to the foundation.
Combined with the pretty good tree damage, and the slightly liberal nature of NWS Chicago, I think LE EF-4 might be on the table as of now. Pretty iffy given the foundation is CMU, but possible.
Take what I say with an entire saltshaker as well. I am not an expert
Summoning @buckeye05 @TH2002. I agree with this statement. I could be fine with either HE EF3 or LE EF4 honestly. Theres a very reasonable possibility that there could be 2 violent ratings before we’re done with the outbreak.