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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

MichelleH said:
Is anyone else concerned that the southern end of the system will overperform from what they're forecasting and the public won't be prepared because local mets have been downplaying it? Could just be because my nerves are raw today, but I just can't shake that feeling.
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Your fears aren't unfounded, I've noticed in my circle a lot of people underselling the threat because of this. Combine this with the fact that the worse will likely be nocturnal is giving me unease.
 
Maxis_s said:
I think Arkansas could get it reaaaal bad. Not much convective initiation down there shown on models but there's a pristine environment and basically no capping.
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That’s my thought. The more subtle forcing down there may result in lower storm coverage, but I also think it increases the likelihood of us getting a few intense, discrete supercells that could be long-lived and long-tracked there.
 
slenker said:
No. There's been high risk days in the past that would have only been worthy of a CIG2 tornado risk - see 4/2/25 or 3/31/23. Based on the probabilities, I'm pretty sure a HIGH is possible with CIG1 too.
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CIG 1 60% is high risk, CIG 2 30%+ is high risk, CIG 3 30%+ is high risk. They're not upgrading to high today but CIG 3 15% can't be ruled out (although I'd say it's very unlikely)
 
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