CheeselandSkies
Member
Not sure if it'll be enough to make a difference for the northern end, but a decent slot of clearing is pushing through northwest MO up into central Iowa.
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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28
- Thread starter Bulkshear
- Start date
genie
Member
As MichelleH mentioned, I am a bit worried that the southern extent of the risk area is being overlooked. I don't think the SPC is doing anything egregious, but I don't want to have a situation where significant nocturnal tornadoes occur in places that the general public doesn't expect them. I know local meteorologists are under no obligation to mirror the SPC, but nobody wants to be the person who cried wolf and have their reputation tarnished. At any rate, I don't envy forecasters. If you know one, give them a hug.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I don't feel good either. The 12z HRRR has trended more linear, but given that we are practically very close to the event beginning in a sense, i usually don't trust the last of A HRRR run before a event. The 06z remains a volatile situation. This really won't end well with a near 50 kt jet translation speed, and rapid moisture advection/instability. The only thing is we see more of a linear mode than expected, which is always a possibility in these high end events. It happened on 5/6/24, due to the orientation of the supercells being parallel to the 850mb. Not saying that will happen but storm mode is a lot more complex with these events then it tends to be.
14z hrrr has a good bit of semi isolated supercells on the southeastern portion of the event.
And even then, we all know what also happened that day.
US_Highway15
Member
Wonder if Broyles is working today...
*If you know you know*
*If you know you know*
Justin Hindman
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I told him to take the rest of the day off with pay
Muwx
Member
Up to 77/67 here in SWMO with winds out of the SSW at 20. I think we’re gonna escape down here but man, it feels like a storm day.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I think using 500mb RH on the NAM is weirdly useful. It manages to depict convection and more subtle features like cloud cover in the atmosphere. Will need to watch what stability is left of this MCS.
Can see roll clouds now across S MO indicating some stability still left. Still think, we may need to clear out a bit more here. like @jharris0220 said, i can see a potentially breaking up MCS that develops seperate supercells south of the boundary. Dangerous situation, with OWS supercells being a possibility toom
Can see roll clouds now across S MO indicating some stability still left. Still think, we may need to clear out a bit more here. like @jharris0220 said, i can see a potentially breaking up MCS that develops seperate supercells south of the boundary. Dangerous situation, with OWS supercells being a possibility toom
klouzek7079
Member
For those of you chasing in central/eastern Missouri and Northeast Arkansas today, please take caution. Lots of tree cover and hills.
GXSC
Member
It is extremely sunny outside right now, and there is a few lines of weak storm activity forming to our west that is probably elevated.
Dews RN are 58, highs are forecasted to reach 72, and we are not even in the 2% tornado risk right now.
We'll see how this evolves...
Dews RN are 58, highs are forecasted to reach 72, and we are not even in the 2% tornado risk right now.
We'll see how this evolves...
US_Highway15
Member
To add on, just be careful in general. Gonna be flooded with storm chasers, some who shouldn't have a driver's license to begin with.
UpperLevelLOL
Member
Not to mention that these storms will likely be rolling through a metro area around rush hour with screaming storm motions. Expect lots of interstates blocked with overpass idiots as well. Not a fun chase at all.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Warm sector clearing out now in S MO, roll clouds at play, indicating stability still and likely no developing cells until later. That is not a junk warm sector at all though. 77/70 almost in some areas. How far north your boundary lifts depends on this risk spatially.
Latest station plot just got 80/69 south of that boundary, we are warming quick
Latest station plot just got 80/69 south of that boundary, we are warming quick
Just piggybacking off of that (still can’t posts pictures, but oh well), there’s a pretty noticeable, I think, prefrontal trough/confluence area in eastern/southeastern Missouri on both MSL Pressure and surface Obs.
So you have two possible OWS convective initiators already filling in (HCRs and Confluence)
Brad arnold is going live at 1pm. Any storm chasers in this thread staying in dixie to storm chase? TN/MS/AR? If so and the people that are in that area be careful just because we are not in a moderate in that area doesn't mean we won't see a long track strong/violent tornado there.
Schoeppeya
Member
Yeah I think any type of MCS failure mode is totally off the table at this point. We will get it, but honestly we dont even need more sun with the thermos already in place. Next failure mode to watch for is maybe early convection and then everything going linear but the table it set for a very high end day.
TornadoFan
Member
Errrr.........