Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[jiharris0220]

The MCS will create a boundary of very enhanced SRH and surface vorticity where unstable air can pile up onto.
The tail end of the MCS seems like it will break up and actually become discrete supercells that will take advantage of this enhanced environment along with OWS supercells that also ride the same boundary.
To the south, along the dryline, shear magnitude is lower but these storms will be even more discrete and have a very broad warm sector to take advantage of.

 

[DanLarsen34]

Oh Also anniversary of Vilonia today. Let’s hope today doesn’t add another bad event historically.

That day remains one of the more interesting events I’ve tracked. The environment was clearly supportive of intense to violent tornadoes, but no storm could really establish itself for most of the event. I remember checking out on monitoring the situation for bit because of that only to open the RadarScope app and see a well-established supercell with a massive debris ball.

We were fortunate that it was just one cell that was able to take advantage of that parameter space.

 

[ColdFront]

That's a pretty incredible sounding for 12z actually! It's just missing LLLRs and 3CAPE!

Once it uncaps, those will rapidly go up.

 

[Kds86z]

I think that’s part of the problem though, right? That line extends back west of Chanute Kansas. So even if it pushes south of STL, I think it could be a limiting factor in mass response to the north. It’s far from certain but it’s something I’m definitely watching.

Await the dry punch aye ?

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

This is one of those soundings that will be talked about every single year when people are comparing future set ups to it. I'm dumbfounded this is a real life sounding (taken at 6am no less). Unbelievably potent environment today.

 

[Weatherguyx]

 

[Kds86z]

The MCS will create a boundary of very enhanced SRH and surface vorticity where unstable air can pile up onto.
The tail end of the MCS seems like it will break up and actually become discrete supercells that will take advantage of this enhanced environment along with OWS supercells that also ride the same boundary.
To the south, along the dryline, shear magnitude is lower but these storms will be even more discrete and have a very broad warm sector to take advantage of.

I was going to comment because yeah we do have tornado warnings now in the risk for later, so leftover boundaries and such made me think it could make things more potent should a storm take advantage.

 

[DanLarsen34]

It definitely gets my attention when Brad is saying something like this. I don’t believe he is one that is prone to overly hyping things?

 

[Kds86z]

Where’s @UK_EF4 lol.. he was on point for Missouri 3/14.,

 

[DanLarsen34]

You very rarely see a sounding like this in the early morning hours. You can get hodographs like this as warm air advection is occurring, but you don’t get that backed up by an environment that already supports significant severe this early.

 

[slenker]

One thing is for certain IMO: A high risk is completely off the table here, too much uncertainty associated with this rain mass. Worst case scenario is what @jiharris0220 said, best case scenario is cells continue to crash into it and for some reason it keeps training along.

 

[US_Highway15]

Possible tornado ongoing just above Macomb IL that is unwarned, both TOR and SVR T-Storm.

EDIT: Just SVR warned it.

 

[MichelleH]

Is anyone else concerned that the southern end of the system will overperform from what they're forecasting and the public won't be prepared because local mets have been downplaying it? Could just be because my nerves are raw today, but I just can't shake that feeling.

 

[US_Highway15]

One thing is for certain IMO: A high risk is completely off the table here, too much uncertainty associated with this rain mass. Worst case scenario is what @jiharris0220 said, best case scenario is cells continue to crash into it and for some reason it keeps training along.

I agree completely. If anyone thinks SPC is going high risk, you're just lying to yourself and getting your hopes up. WAY too much uncertainty.

 

[Maxis_s]

I hate how today looks. Hope it busts, or all the tornadoes remain rural and don't impact structures.

 

[ColdFront]

I agree completely. If anyone thinks SPC is going high risk, you're just lying to yourself and getting your hopes up. WAY too much uncertainty.

Also why those night-before, one-off HRRR supercell printer runs should be taken with a grain of salt. Every single run after that has dramatically backed off that solution.

 

[Maxis_s]

Is anyone else concerned that the southern end of the system will overperform from what they're forecasting and the public won't be prepared because local mets have been downplaying it? Could just be because my nerves are raw today, but I just can't shake that feeling.

I think Arkansas could get it reaaaal bad. Not much convective initiation down there shown on models but there's a pristine environment and basically no capping.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I’m

One thing is for certain IMO: A high risk is completely off the table here, too much uncertainty associated with this rain mass. Worst case scenario is what @jiharris0220 said, best case scenario is cells continue to crash into it and for some reason it keeps training along.

the high risk is not total 0. Believe it or not today. That moderate risk will need expanded south more

 

[US_Highway15]

Is anyone else concerned that the southern end of the system will overperform from what they're forecasting and the public won't be prepared because local mets have been downplaying it? Could just be because my nerves are raw today, but I just can't shake that feeling.

I mean nothing is stopping the local meteorologists from raising the alarm higher than the SPC is. It's not like the SPC controls what they say. It's just like how the Dayton OH TV meteorologists raised the alarm bell higher and higher as the day went on, then eventually the Dayton EF4 hit.

Not saying Dayton will happen again, but it's just an example of local mets raising the alarm higher than the risk that was in place.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I think Arkansas could get it reaaaal bad. Not much convective initiation down there shown on models but there's a pristine environment and basically no capping.

Already had nice outflow boundary laid earlier this morning. Northeast arkasas and nw Tennessee