Sawmaster
Member
Ryan Hall is my go-to but Max Velocity can be just as good.
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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28
- Thread starter Bulkshear
- Start date
speedbump305
Member
I’m not gonna lie based on the recent model runs, I’d be very shocked if we don’t end up with a moderate risk. @Ozonelayer pointed out how the convection isn’t nearly as widespread as we hoped.
US_Highway15
Member
Take this as you will, but FOX Weather's calling today a "potential high-end tornado outbreak" with long track tornadoes. In my history of watching them (which has been for about 3-4 years now), I've never seen them have that headline for just an ENH risk.
- Moderator
- #204
On the road way north 8 hrs with @Justin Hindman. This is going to be a long day!
11z hrrr is supercell city across Mississippi Arkansas and Louisiana today.
lake.effect
Member
I cannot believe I woke up with to an ENH. I thought a large MOD was a lock, and even a small chance for HIGH.
Insanely conservative forecast.
Insanely conservative forecast.
speedbump305
Member
They must be seeing something we aren’t. That being said, I was still shocked to see a moderate wasn’t issued.
speedbump305
Member
They must be seeing something we aren’t. That being said, I was still shocked to see a moderate wasn’t issued.
I definitely see a moderate before the event kicks off
slenker
Member
SPC might have just issued the MOD, saw it on the website before it went away on my screen.
Thank the lord SPC put North MS back in a Level 2 Slight Risk. About time
MOD is out.
Big 15%## for southern MO/IL
SPC Day 1 Outlook
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
US_Highway15
Member
Here you go, you finally got the MOD risk.
slenker
Member
Fairly strong wording too. Explicitly mentions tornadoes with EF3+ potential and many dangerous supercells.
These supercells will exist in a very favorable environment for
tornadoes through the afternoon and evening, and multiple strong to
intense tornadoes (EF-2/3+) appear likely, especially from parts of
MO into IL along/near the effective front. This strong tornado
threat may also extend farther south into AR/TN, but confidence is
somewhat lower with southward extent due to weaker large-scale
forcing. Large to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) may also
occur with any sustained supercells.
lake.effect
Member
There's the MOD.
Makes sense for the moderate risk area, but still too conservative in terms of coverage IMO. Northern Arkansas, Western TN are in a 5% hatched zone. That makes no sense.
Makes sense for the moderate risk area, but still too conservative in terms of coverage IMO. Northern Arkansas, Western TN are in a 5% hatched zone. That makes no sense.
Ozonelayer
Member
New SPC is much more bullish now. Big TOR driven MDT with them saying multiple EF-3+ tornadoes appear likely. Wowza.
Thank god they actually upgraded it because it was way too conservative before.
Thank god they actually upgraded it because it was way too conservative before.
"Multiple intense tornados appear likely" yikes!
Ozonelayer
Member
That being said, I think the 10%## can be extended south into AR/TN. Similarly volitile environment and discrete convection are also possible down there.
kcyalater
Member
the spc clearly buying into the hrrr supercell printer from last night.
yikes. very, very dangerous setup today.
yikes. very, very dangerous setup today.