• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

Kds86z said:
for tomorrow night?
Click to expand...
Yes. They might wait until then or just go ahead with it. However, this Marginal Risk ain't gonna cut if that verifies.
 
Regarding modelling solutions on the northern areas under the gun tomorrow, worth remembering that we've seen several instances where the 00Z run looked apocalyptic and ended up not materializing that way. That being said, if I was in southeastern Missouri or the southern half of Illinois, looking at this would definitely be giving me a stomach ache. Also concerned about Arkansas, western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. A bit of a 3/14/26-looking situation, taken verbatim. On Tuesday, the Midsouth could be under the gun again due to the previously-discussed secondary low and attendant convection. Aforementioned storms could support increasing tornado threat going into Tuesday evening as the LLJ intensifies, until instability fades away with eastern extent.
wf8Q9VT.gif
 
Ryan Hall reacting live to 00z HRRR now. Pretty interesting.

Edit: He thinks morning convection will probably last longer than is being shown currently, but if it actually plays out how the HRRR is showing right now it'll be a big memorable tornado outbreak. He said it reminds him of another memorable outbreak, but he wouldn't say which one. I thought that was pretty respectable given all the hypecaster analogs constantly being thrown around these days.
 
Last edited:
Grand Poo Bah said:
Ryan Hall reacting live to 00z HRRR now. Pretty interesting.

Edit: He thinks morning convection will probably last longer than is being shown currently, but if it actually plays out how the HRRR is showing right now it'll be a big memorable tornado outbreak. He said it reminds him of another memorable outbreak, but he wouldn't say which one. I thought that was pretty respectable given all the hypecaster analogs constantly being thrown around these days.
Click to expand...
I like that he is somewhat skeptical instead of just totally saying the midwest is getting vaporized tomorrow. I kind of wonder if Max's degree has ironically just made him kind of arrogant in comparison.
 
slenker said:
Even without these recent doom runs from the models, I still think tomorrow would warrant a MOD. I’d be surprised if they didn’t issue it when the new D1 comes out.
Click to expand...
It seems like the ensemble, deterministic, and AI models haven't wavered a single time for the last 5 days that tomorrow will be a severe weather outbreak. If you don't issue a moderate for this, then what do you issue it for? There's almost always morning convection with big multi day sequences like this, and the most severe days of those sequences are almost always in the second half. Sure, storm mode is a question mark, but the synoptics are saying it's not that pertinent.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
It seems like the ensemble, deterministic, and AI models haven't wavered a single time for the last 5 days that tomorrow will be a severe weather outbreak. If you don't issue a moderate for this, then what do you issue it for? There's almost always morning convection with big multi day sequences like this, and the most severe days of those sequences are almost always in the second half. Sure, storm mode is a question mark, but the synoptics are saying it's not that pertinent.
Click to expand...
The crapvection should be able to clear because of the very fast jet translation speed; that’s part of the reason why it is so good for tornado outbreaks in the first place. But if many of the models still have a bunch of garbage and morning convection tempering the environment substantially, and visible satellite tomorrow looks not great for a significant event, ENH is the correct call. I think erring on the side of caution here is smart for many reasons, but this event can definitely hit a nasty gear if it plays its cards right.

If they upgrade to MOD in the newest D1 tonight and the models continue to go full doom mode, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a further upgrade.
 
Wow, that was a huge change on the operational HRRR!

Figure A shows today’s 12z HREF/GEFS calibrated 4-hr neighborhood probability of a tornado (r=40km). I haven’t seen a 30% in a long time! Also, combine that with csu-mlp’s constantly large 15% tornado prob area with max of 20% since day 3 (Figure B), and the newest Nadocast (Figure C) with a 15% hatch bullseye around St. Louis. That is one of strongest signals from this array of tools that you’ll get for a significant tornado risk in an area.

Figure A

IMG-0845.png


Figure B

IMG-0847.png


Figure C

IMG-0848.png
 
Last edited:
I’m not sure if I said this earlier but even assuming robust and prolonged morning co bc section, there will still be a sizable corridor for intense tornadoes south of Marion IL all the way down to Jonesboro. I’d put a moderate risk there no matter what, and honestly it’s pretty shocking how far north the SPC has tornado probs.
 
I think just based on the shape of the trough tomorrow + perfect timing + moisture being consistent across the models, is enough to warrant a moderate/low-end high risk, assuming the trough actually comes through with that shape. The mesoscale details will obviously determine the ceiling. I think the morning convection and the subsequent risk of poor low-level lapse rates are the main flies in the ointment that I'm seeing. I'm not as worried by the current convection in Missouri getting out of the way in time, it's the current convection in Central KS that could get in the way if it doesn't get shunted North (although it seems to be somewhat discrete in its own manner for what it's worth).

Other than that, there's nothing that jumps out at me showing there won't be at least some form of an outbreak tomorrow whether its a QLCS or super cellular. Ironically I think 3/14/2025 is a solid analog, the caveats being the upcoming event looks to have more CAPE, less shear, has arguably better timing, and is placed further north.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top