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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28
- Thread starter Bulkshear
- Start date
OhOkayThen
Member
The issue here, is ENH seems to get thrown around like candy, and this event is not the same as all of those other ENH events. The ceiling is insanely higher. We see ENH if theres potential for a couple tornadoes in a QLCS. This could literally turn into a high-end event, but this morning everyone will get up and see its just another ENH. Not a fan, unless they are gonna pull the trigger next update. Those folks know more than me, but I think this is a case of overthinking.
Right. We have enhanced every summer day we get a run of the mill 60-70 mph wind MCS
notsoencrypted
Member
Ok, I normally dislike watching/listening to the generalized streamers during events, but due to some RL emergency stuff, I'm going to have to be driving on I-90 from southern MN to Dane county, likely somewhere between 14 hours from now to maybe even as late as 23 hours from now. Who should I listen to while driving? Basically, who tends to be the most chill and comprehensive? From what I do know, I'm leaning towards Ryan Hall? I could also do NOAA radio, but that feels more reactive rather proactive/more difficult to follow while driving.
Really hoping that the northern side just doesn't have the juice. Thanks to everyone sharing their thoughts. The forecast discussion from La Crosse agrees with what I've seen here in that the evening will depend on how the morning goes. I'll definitely be checking in here to get some summaries of how the morning stuff plays out since I won't be able to track it myself.
Really hoping that the northern side just doesn't have the juice. Thanks to everyone sharing their thoughts. The forecast discussion from La Crosse agrees with what I've seen here in that the evening will depend on how the morning goes. I'll definitely be checking in here to get some summaries of how the morning stuff plays out since I won't be able to track it myself.
SGFmoTwister
Member
Yeah, Ryan Hall. He's one of the least annoying, but even he's getting on my nerves with his cute sayings and catchphrases.
tennessee storm chaser
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Little small complex coming out of ne Arkansas going lay down some outflow boundaries across parts Midsouth later this evening
KCweatherboy
Member
Brief TDS near Spring Hill, KS, was only there for 2-3 radar scans max
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
we have a likely tor otg very close to the east of the Kansas City Radar a spotter also confirmed poweflashes in Springville aka where this tornado likely occured.
US_Highway15
Member
Here's NWS Lincoln's thoughts on today:
"DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
*** TODAY ***
The focus remains on today`s forecast, a challenging one
involving multiple rounds of convection, potential for severe
storms and heavy rainfall, and strong synoptic winds that could
lead to blowing dust. We`ve been highlighting the impact of
morning storms on today`s forecast, with more morning storms
reducing the severe storm and blowing dust chances relative to a
scenario with fewer morning storms. The forecast has trended
towards higher storm coverage across central IL this morning.
* MONDAY MORNING STORM CHANCES *
At 04z Mon/11pm Sun, sfc analysis indicated a sub-1000mb sfc low
near the OK Panhandle, with a secondary sfc low (1004 mb) near
the western MN/IA border. Upper level fields reveal a
negatively-tilted shortwave emerging over the central Plains,
embedded within a broader region of large scale troughing over
the northwestern 1/4 of the CONUS. Upstream of IL, there were
two areas of ongoing convection as of 0430z, one in the form of
scattered storms primarily south of the I-70 corridor in MO and
the other developing near the I-70 corridor in KS. There was
also a swath of light rain nearing the MS River corridor,
tracking east in time.
In previous days, the thinking was the evolution of the
convection across MO was going to be our primary chance for
storms locally into the early portions of Monday morning, but
the 00z CAM suite almost universally suggests the storms
developing over central KS will provide the better chance. This
also means that our local storm chances will arrive later into
Monday morning than previously forecast, which, if that
verifies, will have implications on instability this afternoon.
A WoFS run focused on cntrl KS has a strong paintball signal
(consistent signal across individual members) for an MCS to be
located over north/cntrl MO at 09z/4am Mon. Individual members
of both the 00z HREF and REFS show this activity spilling into
IL from the west between sunrise and midday, but these models do
appear a tad slower than what is depicted by WoFS. Ultimately,
confidence has increased that we will be dealing with extensive
cloud cover and areas of precip across cntrl IL this morning.
Surface- based instability ahead of this MCS should be limited,
but at least minor elevated instability and a strongly sheared
environment are expected. Towards late morning, SW flow
advecting the EML plume northward could result in an uptick in
MUCAPE/storm intensity. The main concern with the morning
activity would be isolated instances of large hail or strong
thunderstorm wind gusts. Based on the current CAM depiction of
these morning storms, it appears probable that an outflow
boundary or effective front will be established to the south of
the storms. Guidance favors this occurring somewhere near or
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, but where it exactly it
occurs is low confidence.
* AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK *
Severe storms are still expected this afternoon and evening, but
where, how intense, and the associated hazards types will all
depend on the placement of the effective front and the degree of
atmospheric recovery after the morning convection. Dynamic wind
fields are expected in response to the negatively tilted
trough, with clockwise curved hodographs and 850mb wind fields
increasing over 60 kts by this afternoon, so wind shear will be
strong area- wide. Continued advection of the EML plume should
also result in moderate to high MUCAPEs building ahead of a cold
front encroaching from the west during the late
afternoon/evening. This should set the stage for at least
scattered severe storms (large hail/damaging winds) along the
cold front, although the amount of sfc instability remains a
major point of uncertainty. Strong linear forcing, plentiful
synoptic scale ascent, and shear vector crossing angles less
than 45 degrees favor a linear/quasi-linear storm mode along the
cold front.
As noted above, the morning convection favors an outflow
boundary being draped somewhere across the ILX CWA early this
afternoon. CAMs have caught on to this, and show low surface-
based instability north of this feature. My inclination is that
many of these CAMs may not be aggressive enough in the southward
placement of this boundary, but perhaps strong synoptic
southerly flow helps keep the cold outflow from surging away
from the storms, and reinforces a more northward placement of
that boundary. At any rate, there is skepticism that enough
recovery will occur north of this feature to support significant
surface-based severe hazards, while areas near/south of this
feature will face a significant all-hazards severe threat during
the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings from near and south
of the effective front show strong instability, saturated low
levels (cloud bases/LCLs below 500m), and robust 0-1 km shear
(40 kts) and helicity (300+ J/kg), with the helicity maximized
near the effective front. This environment would pose a
significant risk of tornadoes. Unfortunately, the delineating
line between these two regimes may not become clear until early
afternoon.
In terms of timing, CAMs suggest the front and associated storms
reach the IL River between 23-00z (6-7 PM), I-55 between 00-01z
(7-8 PM), and I-57 between 01-02z (8-9 PM). That timing also
highlights a fast storm motion (over 50 mph), resulting in
limited sheltering time in the event of quick line-embedded
tornadic development. Remain weather aware today, and continue
to check for forecast updates as the relevant boundary placement
comes into better focus.
An Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) remains in place for the entire
ILX coverage area, but areas just north of our CWA were lowered
to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). Current indications based on
the latest CAMs are that the tornado threat area is highest
over the southern half of our forecast area. The adjustment to
SPC`s tornado conditional intensity levels align with our
thinking, with the CIG2 area now focused across the southern
half of the state of IL."
Sounds like if there's gonna be a Moderate Risk, it might not get issued until lunch time, which I agree to be honest.
"DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
*** TODAY ***
The focus remains on today`s forecast, a challenging one
involving multiple rounds of convection, potential for severe
storms and heavy rainfall, and strong synoptic winds that could
lead to blowing dust. We`ve been highlighting the impact of
morning storms on today`s forecast, with more morning storms
reducing the severe storm and blowing dust chances relative to a
scenario with fewer morning storms. The forecast has trended
towards higher storm coverage across central IL this morning.
* MONDAY MORNING STORM CHANCES *
At 04z Mon/11pm Sun, sfc analysis indicated a sub-1000mb sfc low
near the OK Panhandle, with a secondary sfc low (1004 mb) near
the western MN/IA border. Upper level fields reveal a
negatively-tilted shortwave emerging over the central Plains,
embedded within a broader region of large scale troughing over
the northwestern 1/4 of the CONUS. Upstream of IL, there were
two areas of ongoing convection as of 0430z, one in the form of
scattered storms primarily south of the I-70 corridor in MO and
the other developing near the I-70 corridor in KS. There was
also a swath of light rain nearing the MS River corridor,
tracking east in time.
In previous days, the thinking was the evolution of the
convection across MO was going to be our primary chance for
storms locally into the early portions of Monday morning, but
the 00z CAM suite almost universally suggests the storms
developing over central KS will provide the better chance. This
also means that our local storm chances will arrive later into
Monday morning than previously forecast, which, if that
verifies, will have implications on instability this afternoon.
A WoFS run focused on cntrl KS has a strong paintball signal
(consistent signal across individual members) for an MCS to be
located over north/cntrl MO at 09z/4am Mon. Individual members
of both the 00z HREF and REFS show this activity spilling into
IL from the west between sunrise and midday, but these models do
appear a tad slower than what is depicted by WoFS. Ultimately,
confidence has increased that we will be dealing with extensive
cloud cover and areas of precip across cntrl IL this morning.
Surface- based instability ahead of this MCS should be limited,
but at least minor elevated instability and a strongly sheared
environment are expected. Towards late morning, SW flow
advecting the EML plume northward could result in an uptick in
MUCAPE/storm intensity. The main concern with the morning
activity would be isolated instances of large hail or strong
thunderstorm wind gusts. Based on the current CAM depiction of
these morning storms, it appears probable that an outflow
boundary or effective front will be established to the south of
the storms. Guidance favors this occurring somewhere near or
between the I-72 and I-70 corridors, but where it exactly it
occurs is low confidence.
* AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK *
Severe storms are still expected this afternoon and evening, but
where, how intense, and the associated hazards types will all
depend on the placement of the effective front and the degree of
atmospheric recovery after the morning convection. Dynamic wind
fields are expected in response to the negatively tilted
trough, with clockwise curved hodographs and 850mb wind fields
increasing over 60 kts by this afternoon, so wind shear will be
strong area- wide. Continued advection of the EML plume should
also result in moderate to high MUCAPEs building ahead of a cold
front encroaching from the west during the late
afternoon/evening. This should set the stage for at least
scattered severe storms (large hail/damaging winds) along the
cold front, although the amount of sfc instability remains a
major point of uncertainty. Strong linear forcing, plentiful
synoptic scale ascent, and shear vector crossing angles less
than 45 degrees favor a linear/quasi-linear storm mode along the
cold front.
As noted above, the morning convection favors an outflow
boundary being draped somewhere across the ILX CWA early this
afternoon. CAMs have caught on to this, and show low surface-
based instability north of this feature. My inclination is that
many of these CAMs may not be aggressive enough in the southward
placement of this boundary, but perhaps strong synoptic
southerly flow helps keep the cold outflow from surging away
from the storms, and reinforces a more northward placement of
that boundary. At any rate, there is skepticism that enough
recovery will occur north of this feature to support significant
surface-based severe hazards, while areas near/south of this
feature will face a significant all-hazards severe threat during
the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings from near and south
of the effective front show strong instability, saturated low
levels (cloud bases/LCLs below 500m), and robust 0-1 km shear
(40 kts) and helicity (300+ J/kg), with the helicity maximized
near the effective front. This environment would pose a
significant risk of tornadoes. Unfortunately, the delineating
line between these two regimes may not become clear until early
afternoon.
In terms of timing, CAMs suggest the front and associated storms
reach the IL River between 23-00z (6-7 PM), I-55 between 00-01z
(7-8 PM), and I-57 between 01-02z (8-9 PM). That timing also
highlights a fast storm motion (over 50 mph), resulting in
limited sheltering time in the event of quick line-embedded
tornadic development. Remain weather aware today, and continue
to check for forecast updates as the relevant boundary placement
comes into better focus.
An Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) remains in place for the entire
ILX coverage area, but areas just north of our CWA were lowered
to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). Current indications based on
the latest CAMs are that the tornado threat area is highest
over the southern half of our forecast area. The adjustment to
SPC`s tornado conditional intensity levels align with our
thinking, with the CIG2 area now focused across the southern
half of the state of IL."
Sounds like if there's gonna be a Moderate Risk, it might not get issued until lunch time, which I agree to be honest.
US_Highway15
Member
Also, I should mention this; I don't agree with pointing the finger totally at the SPC for not issuing a higher risk, because remember this, it's not just them that makes these decisions, but its the NWS CWO's. So NWS Lincoln, NWS St. Louis, NWS Paducah, etc are all having an influence on these categorical decisions.
I agree but see why they kept it ENH last night. There’s quite a bit of crapvection ongoing right now.
Schoeppeya
Member
There really isn't that much ongoing deep convection that is going to impact the warm sector from central IL south. Nearly all tornado outbreaks east of the plains feature some type of morning convection and in some very notable cases the forms the focal point for the afternoons tornado activity. All that being said its pretty shocking we are still at an enhanced risk for this
Ozonelayer
Member
So uh, morning convecrion certainly wasn't as plentiful or as far south as I hoped atleast in radar.
We also have the MCS beginning to lift north a bit on its eastern portion, likely due to the screaming jet translation speed, even though its still far enough north for supercells in southern IL/MO (given its other half is moving nearly dead east). So theres that.
In IL and southern MO, other crapvection has been relatively spotty and also has begun its track to the north east.
We also have the MCS beginning to lift north a bit on its eastern portion, likely due to the screaming jet translation speed, even though its still far enough north for supercells in southern IL/MO (given its other half is moving nearly dead east). So theres that.
In IL and southern MO, other crapvection has been relatively spotty and also has begun its track to the north east.
speedbump305
Member
I can say with confidence we are likely gonna have a moderate risk at the next update or the lunch update.
Schoeppeya
Member
What would concern me is if the ongoing convection was occurring IN the warm sector right now and was going to impact the quality of moisture as it advected northwards, and its not. Its occurring on the nose of the warm sector so regardless of if there is storms right now, as soon as the effective warm front moves past an area the air mass is recovered. There is already 3500 j/kg of surface based cape across the warm sector, its pretty juiced.
cg9450
Member
I’m a max velocity guy myself.
Ozonelayer
Member
It also appears to me that the western half of the MCS might be weakening and dying, just given its look on reflectivity and falling echo tops.
slenker
Member
SPC could also see something people don’t. There’s much more tools internal to the SPC the public doesn’t have access to. The ceiling is clearly very high today, but that’s based on what we’ve got. That being said, I am quite surprised they actually trimmed down the size of the risk area and kept ENH, but I trust the judgement.
US_Highway15
Member
Looking at the latest HRRR run, I would be STUNNED if they don't issue a Moderate Risk by lunch time. Heck I'd be a little bit surprised if they don't issue one by the next update.
The crapvection with the MCS is a lot less widespread than depicted in all the runs leading up to today.
The crapvection with the MCS is a lot less widespread than depicted in all the runs leading up to today.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
and the env will prob just recover following the morning stuff, we have several hours b4 main stuff even forms