Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[Maxis_s]

It's probably worse than it looks from the pure simref perspective. These widespread types of days tend to be a little more discrete than the 3k simref shows.

Reminder that these things have surface simref, which shows hooks much better than composite simref. Sadly nobody ever makes surface simref with UH tracks.
Did some analysis too, further south (southeast MO, most of arkansas) there are incredible parameters and a noticeable EML, but there doesn't seem to be too much initiation. If anything fires there, that will pose a threat for strong-intense tornadoes. Incredible environment being depicted here.

 

[N0mz]

Reminder that these things have surface simref, which shows hooks much better than composite simref. Sadly nobody ever makes surface simref with UH tracks.
Did some analysis too, further south (southeast MO, most of arkansas) there are incredible parameters and a noticeable EML, but there doesn't seem to be too much initiation. If anything fires there, that will pose a threat for strong-intense tornadoes. Incredible environment being depicted here.

Aguacerowx does it and oh boy

 

[Kds86z]

So a potential Missouri tornado outbreak return, like 2025 style.

 

[ThatGuy;P]

My guess is that tomorrow the SPC could keep it ENH until a clear pattern emerges with the morning convection, and then upgrade at 1630z if things continue to look bad. They've been a bit more on the conservative side with this threat and I don't think that a single bad-looking model run will entirely change that.

 

[N0mz]

My guess is that tomorrow the SPC could keep it ENH until a clear pattern emerges with the morning convection, and then upgrade at 1630z if things continue to look bad. They've been a bit more on the conservative side with this threat and I don't think that a single bad-looking model run will entirely change that.

They could have confidently put a moderate around the bootheel and Paducah even before this run.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Jet translation speed of 48.5 kts. The OMEGA paper states that fast moving jets do particularly well with morning convection. I have a feeling this 00z HRRR isn't exactly one of its usual classic hall of fame supercell spammers, and yes, it may be overdoing some of it a bit but otherwise I genuinely think this is a high end scenario that is plausible. Satellite is the key tomorrow.

 

[Kds86z]

Jet translation speed of 48.5 kts. The OMEGA paper states that fast moving jets do particularly well with morning convection. I have a feeling this 00z HRRR isn't exactly one of its usual classic hall of fame supercell spammers, and yes, it may be overdoing some of it a bit but otherwise I genuinely think this is a high end scenario that is plausible. Satellite is the key tomorrow.

thank you! Keep it coming mr! Lol

 

[slenker]

Jet translation speed of 48.5 kts. The OMEGA paper states that fast moving jets do particularly well with morning convection. I have a feeling this 00z HRRR isn't exactly one of its usual classic hall of fame supercell spammers, and yes, it may be overdoing some of it a bit but otherwise I genuinely think this is a high end scenario that is plausible. Satellite is the key tomorrow.

Very interested to see the visible satellite tomorrow morning. It'll become very apparent whether or not we've got a major event on our hands when we take a look at that. I calc'd a jet translation speed of 50 knots earlier today but I may have been a little off in my jet core placements.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

U

thank you! Keep it coming mr! Lol

Thanks! Giving accurate information in this time of the decade where hypecasting has became the norm is my thing to do. I am extremely curious what our fellow meteorologist @andyhb would have to say about this particular run.

 

[lake.effect]

0z Nam isn't quite as insane as the HRRR, but it's pretty ominous.
Would be really surprised if there's no MOD on D1.

 

[Kds86z]

Is this synoptically the most impressive classic tornado outbreak looking system so far this year correct?

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Very interested to see the visible satellite tomorrow morning. It'll become very apparent whether or not we've got a major event on our hands when we take a look at that. I calc'd a jet translation speed of 50 knots earlier today but I may have been a little off in my jet core placements.

I found the jet to start in W NM and end around Peoria. I might be a tad bit off there, but that's to the best I could determine the core. And the distance of that core to the centroid of the potential event isn't far off. If Broyles is on the outlooks for this one, I really do wonder what he'll message. He's used different ways of acknowledging high end potential with uncertainty like 5/16. ASTORP maintained the 15% tor risk where it's had it despite the morning convection trends and once again, models have trended its way.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I am calling it , see day 1 moderate next update

 

[Kds86z]

What about dry air intrusion? I saw some saying

 

[Lori]

To me southern Illinois to St. Louis is the hot zone. Spc has the greatest tornado risk to far north, needs to move south

I think the system is trying to ramp up in Missouri…if it stays together it could make it to Joplin…

 

[Kds86z]

W

I think the system is trying to ramp up in Missouri…if it stays together it could make it to Joplin…

rong thread

 

[N0mz]

RRFS is same or more robust than 00z hrrr

 

[slenker]

RRFS is same or more robust than 00z hrrr

Real shocker there

 

[JPWX]

Well, after seeing the 00z HRRR and more specifically, the 00z RRFS, I am convinced that more of North MS needs to be upgraded to Level 2 or 3 risk for tomorrow.