Grand Poo Bah
Member
According to the 18z HRRR things don't really blow up until well after dark. The area we're watching doesn't show initiation until 10pm.
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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26
- Thread starter Sharpy
- Start date
Muwx
Member
An area no one is really talking about is SWMO. HRRR is nasty in that area this evening
Grand Poo Bah
Member
This most intense helicity swath in Kansas doesn't even start until midnight, and reaches max intensity at 3am.
Parameters aren't as high but a few lower end tornadoes could definitely pop up.
Muwx
Member
It’s not a bad environment though. The 300-500 m/s of SRH and adequate instability in front of the modeled Springfield supercell would probably do things.
Growing concern should certainly exist for the region from NE OK into SE KS and SW MO from 00z onwards this afternoon. Everyone has seen the HRRR trend which increases convective coverage with each run - and as of the 20z produces multiple robust supercells with UH tracks. It's best not to take a modelled precip output as verbatim of course, but could there be something driving this?
HRRR, among other models, have a 700mb impulse moving through the area around 00z. An associated LLJ segment of ~40ks develops in response to this disturbance. In my opinion, it is entirely plausible we see a couple supercells emerge from WAA showers, probably on the northern end of this LLJ segment. As you would expect from the strengthening low level wind fields, we have seen uptrends in the environment across this area. Latest HRRR/RAP runs suggest a reasonably large area of STP 3-4. While hodographs certainly favour shorter-lived cycles, I can certainly see an environment supportive of EF3+ tornadoes.
There is certainly an element of conditionality to this - far from a slam dunk forecast. But as far as I see it, a localised tornado outbreak is on the cards this afternoon/evening, and should not be taken lightly. We will have to watch closely how the evening evolves.
I still don't seem to be able to send photos but all of these points can be visualised by looking through the model data.
HRRR, among other models, have a 700mb impulse moving through the area around 00z. An associated LLJ segment of ~40ks develops in response to this disturbance. In my opinion, it is entirely plausible we see a couple supercells emerge from WAA showers, probably on the northern end of this LLJ segment. As you would expect from the strengthening low level wind fields, we have seen uptrends in the environment across this area. Latest HRRR/RAP runs suggest a reasonably large area of STP 3-4. While hodographs certainly favour shorter-lived cycles, I can certainly see an environment supportive of EF3+ tornadoes.
There is certainly an element of conditionality to this - far from a slam dunk forecast. But as far as I see it, a localised tornado outbreak is on the cards this afternoon/evening, and should not be taken lightly. We will have to watch closely how the evening evolves.
I still don't seem to be able to send photos but all of these points can be visualised by looking through the model data.
Another new blip near Wichita Falls, tops up to 40kft but I'm not sure if that's radar contamination. Reflectivity seems legit on all tilts but it doesn't make sense to me. We'll see in a few moments if it's something worth watching.
Edit: Up to 45kft now, seems like it's definitely broken through the cap. We'll see what it does.
Edit: Up to 45kft now, seems like it's definitely broken through the cap. We'll see what it does.
Tbf the question with these days I've found is not whether they just break through but persist through the cap. Do think both threat regions are pretty potent TBH.
TornadoFan
Member
Certainly a very healthy cell now.
New MCD. Possible tornado risk developing in North Oklahoma.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Looks like some counties in southern KS were locally added to tornado watch 150. Appears this is to align with watch 152 just issued for northern OK as per MD 551.
Muwx
Member
Didn’t take long for them to issue that watch
TornadoFan
Member
Muwx
Member
The cell near Joplin is probably one to watch. There is some sort of boundary (warm front?) it’ll be interacting with. Could be trouble.