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Severe Weather 2026

The potential for a severe weather sequence of sorts begins on Wednesday. With ensemble spread, it's hard to say how long this sequence could be or how potent it may be but we can decipher some ideas from these days.

Wednesday: A "day before the day" if you could consider it one. The potential for the first taste of a severe weather day I the Dakotas this year with the potential for high-based supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail.

Supercells will have very high bases with temp/dew spreads almost in the 30s here! A classic "inverted V" exists on soundings with very steep lapse rates additionally all through the column of at least 8+. DCAPE breaches at least 1k, so i would watch out for damaging winds as the main threat here. Tornado threat is close to none, but nonzero.

Thursday: Somewhat the main day at the moment here with a severe threat in the Central/Southern Plains up to the Upper Midwest.

This day will feature the potential for all hazards along the majority of the risk area. The first area is MN/IA, with sporadic convection maybe posing a low end damaging wind/tornado threat. Moisture return is slightly uncertain with northern extent so things could change but there is a opportunity for something up there, but not a high end threat like most of them this April.

Going down to the Plains on the dryline, there could be some issues with the dryline firing and going upscale somewhat. Maybe not a fully consolidated line, but the potential to get a bit messy on the OK/KS border. The main threat will likely exist at around 00z-03z, with a strong LLJ promoting at least 230+ ESRH and over 2,000 SBCAPE. More of a clustered storm mode should limit supercells from a higher ceiling tornado-wise but a couple embedded tornadoes are a possibility with any favourably oriented line segments. Damaging wind may be a issue too, given slightly drier low level temps perhaps causing more of a tendency for outflow to win against the *potential* QLCS/clusters.

Friday: There has been disagreement on this threat, as it may depend on how leftover convection from Thursday evolves. The SPC has a 15% severe risk outlined for Friday, but I'm not seeing anything particularly eye catching in either hazard of wind, hail or tornadoes atm for this one.

Saturday: Gonna be like a needle in a haystack trying to pinpoint this one because there is so much ensemble agreement. It couldn't be a @WeathermanLeprechaun post without me ditching out some sort of clapback at weenies/hypers but as I watch the 18z GFS rolling in, it paints a scenario that is guaranteed to get a bit of stirring around on WXTwitter. A potent environment for all hazards in Oklahoma, with discrete nature being depicted, but this is one deterministic run. Right now, all I can really say is some sort of svr threat may focus around the southern plains during this time, due to major uncertainty on ensembles. I would eye this day, although not giving much concern to it at the moment.

Sunday: I mention Sunday because ASTORP is unusually confident on some sort of severe weather event in the OK/LA/AR/TX vicinity, despite no deterministic runs hinting at much here. The words of the day are "ensemble uncertainty", and i don't know why it's so locked in on this specific day given it is a good 9 days out (and this is as far as ASTORP goes, due to it having poor accuracy any further as most guidance does. The 18z GFS as I type this has just fired multiple supercells in this same vicinity that ASTORP does. Quite a run, and I'm gonna risk this one but I'll give ASTORP some credence on this. Maybe it is on to something with pointing this day out. Things will likely change with this day, but i will note ASTORP has been superb this April with threats.

That's all for now. There is certainly some sequence coming up but of course, there's a lot of dependency on how the last day will go or the next. Eight now, no major concerns but the most days for concern of at least monitoring are:

Thursday, and Saturday + Sunday. Thursday due to outlined risk and environment, Saturday due to ASTORP and Sunday due to a strong long range ASTORP signal. We will see.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
The potential for a severe weather sequence of sorts begins on Wednesday. With ensemble spread, it's hard to say how long this sequence could be or how potent it may be but we can decipher some ideas from these days.

Wednesday: A "day before the day" if you could consider it one. The potential for the first taste of a severe weather day I the Dakotas this year with the potential for high-based supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail.

Supercells will have very high bases with temp/dew spreads almost in the 30s here! A classic "inverted V" exists on soundings with very steep lapse rates additionally all through the column of at least 8+. DCAPE breaches at least 1k, so i would watch out for damaging winds as the main threat here. Tornado threat is close to none, but nonzero.

Thursday: Somewhat the main day at the moment here with a severe threat in the Central/Southern Plains up to the Upper Midwest.

This day will feature the potential for all hazards along the majority of the risk area. The first area is MN/IA, with sporadic convection maybe posing a low end damaging wind/tornado threat. Moisture return is slightly uncertain with northern extent so things could change but there is a opportunity for something up there, but not a high end threat like most of them this April.

Going down to the Plains on the dryline, there could be some issues with the dryline firing and going upscale somewhat. Maybe not a fully consolidated line, but the potential to get a bit messy on the OK/KS border. The main threat will likely exist at around 00z-03z, with a strong LLJ promoting at least 230+ ESRH and over 2,000 SBCAPE. More of a clustered storm mode should limit supercells from a higher ceiling tornado-wise but a couple embedded tornadoes are a possibility with any favourably oriented line segments. Damaging wind may be a issue too, given slightly drier low level temps perhaps causing more of a tendency for outflow to win against the *potential* QLCS/clusters.

Friday: There has been disagreement on this threat, as it may depend on how leftover convection from Thursday evolves. The SPC has a 15% severe risk outlined for Friday, but I'm not seeing anything particularly eye catching in either hazard of wind, hail or tornadoes atm for this one.

Saturday: Gonna be like a needle in a haystack trying to pinpoint this one because there is so much ensemble agreement. It couldn't be a @WeathermanLeprechaun post without me ditching out some sort of clapback at weenies/hypers but as I watch the 18z GFS rolling in, it paints a scenario that is guaranteed to get a bit of stirring around on WXTwitter. A potent environment for all hazards in Oklahoma, with discrete nature being depicted, but this is one deterministic run. Right now, all I can really say is some sort of svr threat may focus around the southern plains during this time, due to major uncertainty on ensembles. I would eye this day, although not giving much concern to it at the moment.

Sunday: I mention Sunday because ASTORP is unusually confident on some sort of severe weather event in the OK/LA/AR/TX vicinity, despite no deterministic runs hinting at much here. The words of the day are "ensemble uncertainty", and i don't know why it's so locked in on this specific day given it is a good 9 days out (and this is as far as ASTORP goes, due to it having poor accuracy any further as most guidance does. The 18z GFS as I type this has just fired multiple supercells in this same vicinity that ASTORP does. Quite a run, and I'm gonna risk this one but I'll give ASTORP some credence on this. Maybe it is on to something with pointing this day out. Things will likely change with this day, but i will note ASTORP has been superb this April with threats.

That's all for now. There is certainly some sequence coming up but of course, there's a lot of dependency on how the last day will go or the next. Eight now, no major concerns but the most days for concern of at least monitoring are:

Thursday, and Saturday + Sunday. Thursday due to outlined risk and environment, Saturday due to ASTORP and Sunday due to a strong long range ASTORP signal. We will see.
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Did i just see you in Andrew Shearer's comments? :p
 
There are very severe storms right now in north-central and northwestern Argentina.
Unfortunately, the radar systems in the area are outdated or nonexistent, and the WRF prevots 3km forecasts (the only CAM model currently in South America with parameters adapted to the Southern Hemisphere) do not cover that area.

For now, only God knows what these SCs are generating right now.
 
There's a definite uptrend in the strength of possible trough ejection modelled on the GEFS across the Midsouth into the Southeast over the past several runs in the April 26-28 time frame. Coherent signals are starting to emerge on all of our favorite predictive modelling solutions, CIPS is included below. Doesn't quite look like a "classic" synoptic setup but it could definitely pose a risk for noteworthy severe weather across the South. Overall, still too early to get latched onto any particular details, but the overall signal is there from the Plains into the Gulf Coast and Southeast.
PRALLC01_gefsF168.png
PRALLC01_gefsF240.png
 
I can't even plan my birthday anymore for late April because more times than not, we are dealing with severe weather events. LOL!
 
Today's Day 6 15% Slight Risk is the first one over Northwest MS since October 13th, 2025 and the first one in April over Northwest MS since April 15th, 2025.
 
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