Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

[Kds86z]

Hmmmm,



Also, Trey from CC doesn’t see the strong intense tornado threat in Wisconsin. He pulled some soundings.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[US_Highway15]

Hmmmm,



Also, Trey from CC doesn’t see the strong intense tornado threat in Wisconsin. He pulled some sounding

Did he say anything about a strong tornado threat at all in Illinois? Or is he just not convinced period.

 

[Kds86z]

Did he say anything about a strong tornado threat at all in Illinois? Or is he just not convinced period.

Don’t think he pulled any soundings from IL. I was surprised at his disagreement with SPC but .. oh well.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

17z HRRR continues the spitting-out of very large UDH swaths across the 10# region.

 

[jackhutwx]

and so it begins

 

[Muwx]

I am pretty unimpressed by the OK/KS risk.

 

[jiharris0220]

I am pretty unimpressed by the OK/KS risk.

The shear magnitude is abysmally low and the shear vectors promote a rather messy storm mode.
None of the cams show strong helicity streaks which is a red flag that the updrafts will not be taking advantage of the already low shear.

 

[jackhutwx]

these hrrr runs just keep looking worse every hour. comparing today to yesterday, if today is worse, we might see multiple high-end ef2s and possibly a couple of low-end ef3s.

 

[Ozonelayer]

these hrrr runs just keep looking worse every hour. comparing today to yesterday, if today is worse, we might see multiple high-end ef2s and possibly a couple of low-end ef3s.

Given the environment at play, I wouldn't rule out a higher end intense-violent tornado with the more isolated cells.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Ottawa tornado from last night has been rated EF2 125.

 

[Kds86z]

Ottawa tornado from last night has been rated EF2 125.

 

[Kds86z]

Sounds about right, looked solid strong. Surely didn’t expect a couple surprise ef2s in Kansas, first of the month

 

[Kds86z]

 

[buckeye05]

What's looking potentially EF3 to you? The image of the building* with most of its walls flattened seems like the best candidate to me, in the tweet posted earlier, but I haven't seen much outside of that post.

* EDIT: changed to building from home

Yup that single home is what has me not ruling out EF3. I’m personally leaning more towards high EF2 but we’ll see.

EDIT: Sounds like they went with mid range EF2. There was either some pretty frail construction or they just played it really conservative,

 

[Weatherguyx]

 

[Ozonelayer]

That sounding already has 4300 J/kg of SBCAPE, which is just...wow

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

A

Yup that single home is what has me not ruling out EF3. I’m personally leaning more towards high EF2 but we’ll see.

EDIT: Sounds like they went with mid range EF2. There was either some pretty frail construction or they just played it really conservative,

And you are correct