Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

[Schoeppeya]

This is going to be a pretty long duration event today with initiation forecast to be underway by 18z and looks like some areas might get a couple rounds of storms

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

15z HRRR has nasty UDH swaths extending from central Iowa to the Lake Michigan border, with an STP of 12.8 on that one cell I've been mentioning near Kenosha.

10% definitely needs to be moved south.

 

[US_Highway15]

im thinking just an upgrade (10%) for the il/in threat?

Wouldn't be surprised. Just depends where they place it, like if its an entire separate 10% placed around central IL/IN or if they just straight up move it down further south.

 

[ColdFront]

@CheeselandSkies you may have a career week for storming chasing on your hands

 

[Ozonelayer]

Yall I still can't post but look at the 15z HRRR. It has north and central IL getting in on the fun, as well as several rounds for IA/WI

 

[US_Highway15]

Sun is starting to already starting to come out here in Middlebury IN (NE Elkhart County IN)

 

[US_Highway15]

If I wasn't retired from storm chasing, I'd target far Northern IL for sure.

 

[Weatherguyx]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

15z HRRR has nasty UDH swaths extending from central Iowa to the Lake Michigan border, with an STP of 12.8 on that one cell I've been mentioning near Kenosha.

10% definitely needs to be moved south.

Even crazier, inland WI has a localized pocket of 16.4 modeled STP on the same cell. I really wish images could be posted right now because that is insane.

 

[jiharris0220]

Go to this link and upload it there. https://imgur.com/upload Once uploaded, it has a “copy” option in which you can post it here.

Even crazier, inland WI has a localized pocket of 16.4 modeled STP on the same cell. I really wish images could be posted right now because that is insane.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Even crazier, inland WI has a localized pocket of 16.4 modeled STP on the same cell. I really wish images could be posted right now because that is insane.

Yeah if the 15z HRRR Verifies or the outcome is similar, that would be a major tornado outbreak. I don't think it will play out exactly but if it keeps trending that way, the SPC easily will go MDT+

 

[Kds86z]

This one @Ozonelayer ?

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Yeah if the 15z HRRR Verifies or the outcome is similar, that would be a major tornado outbreak. I don't think it will play out exactly but if it keeps trending that way, the SPC easily will go MDT+

I don't think it's too weenie to say at this point that a small HIGH corridor, even if extremely unlikely, might be on the table. Maybe they're seeing something we don't like on 4/2/25.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Go to this link and upload it there. https://imgur.com/upload Once uploaded, it has a “copy” option in which you can post it here.

Will do; Imgur is blocked on the internet that I'm currently on (institutional) but I'll clip it once images come back up. Absolutely wild.

 

[Ozonelayer]

This one @Ozonelayer ?

Yep, because beyond that frame, we have this:

 

[Kds86z]

Usually if SPC is gonna upgrade for tornado they’ll do a mcd for it like in March. Nothing yet so idk

 

[jackhutwx]

Yep, because beyond that frame, we have this:

if that verifies that'll be crazy.

 

[N0mz]

Usually if SPC is gonna upgrade for tornado they’ll do a mcd for it like in March. Nothing yet so idk

theyre late anyways