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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

E OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG (EF-2/3). SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO INCLUDING GREATER
TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4 OF 5) FOCUSED
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/FAR NORTHERN IL. BUT, CONVECTION MAY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO GROW UPSCALE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING, SO CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS, VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL (POTENTIALLY UP TO 3
 
For Oklahoma:

OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE TO POTENTIALLY GIANT HAIL (UP TO 3-4 INCHES
IN DIAMETER) WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS OK/KS BY 00Z WILL ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES, A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
BECOME ENLARGED. GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH/CLUSTERING SHOULD OCCUR WITH
TIME THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH SOME RISK FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS.
 
So over here in central Iowa, the earlier storms initiate the more hairier it is for me hmm...

I'm just barely in the 10% but models are very hit or miss about storms in my area.
 
Given the increased consistency on the previous four quarterly (12z/06z/00z/18z) HRRR runs, I appreciate the extension of the slight risk SE towards cincinnati on the new outlook. It's not a guarantee that anything rogue will fire near the I-70 corridor (as per other CAMs during the aforementioned quarterly HRRR runs) but this is one of those uncommon days in my neck of the woods in which morning convection is nonexistent and the atmosphere has had time to, and will continue to, build deep moisture uninterrupted.
 
Kds86z said:
E OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG (EF-2/3). SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO INCLUDING GREATER
TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4 OF 5) FOCUSED
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/FAR NORTHERN IL. BUT, CONVECTION MAY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO GROW UPSCALE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING, SO CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS, VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL (POTENTIALLY UP TO 3
Click to expand...
Excellent explanation by the SPC. Liked that they extended the 5% hatched further south. Much needed.
 
US_Highway15 said:
Excellent explanation by the SPC. Liked that they extended the 5% hatched further south. Much needed.
Click to expand...
I'm assuming if things remain consistent up to 2000z they might be able to pull off a categorical upgrade but it depends when things fire off.
 
16z HRRR has a "flying eagle" cell (forward flank notch) modeled in east Iowa. Usually a sign of a persistent updraft.
 
Last edited:
Uh oh, the sun's out over here. Here's hoping a blip doesn't get big just SW of me cause uh I think I'm right on the warm front.
 
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