lake.effect
Member
lol this thread is a ghost town considering the large MOD risk today
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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
Wind event definitely verified, thankfully not nearly as much in the way of tornadoes. I suspect several will be confirmed in NW AL and parts of TN before all is said and done, though.
I’m in a tornado watch right now currently, and the first line of storms is rolling through. The main line hadn’t hit yet.
P.S. check your messages my friend
DanLarsen34
Member
I wonder if that has anything to do with 1) how yesterday’s tornado threat underperformed relative to some people’s expectations, and 2) the fact that some models downtrended with the threat for today?
I think people will trickle back in as the day ramps up.
DanLarsen34
Member
This is what I suspect. We may see the tornado count increase quite a bit, especially across the northern areas where some of the tightest line-embedded couplets were yesterday once surveys are done.
My county put schools on a 2 hour early dismissal today- and we’re not even in the 15#
DanLarsen34
Member
That sounding is pretty impressive despite the hodograph being a little wonky looking and sheer generally being pretty unidirectional. Notable to see 3CAPE over 100, sufficient MU CAPE, and solid helicity values, especially this early.
Kds86z
Member
That circled area is where I’ll be targeting
Kds86z
Member
TornadoFan
Member
It'll be interesting if we can get any storms to form ahead of the line.
warneagle
Member
Still cloudy here, but we were already at 63/62 on the 12z IAD sounding with a notable dry slot aloft and not that much capping. It’s not gonna take a ton of insolation to get at least decent instability.
DanLarsen34
Member
There’s a decent couplet developing to the SW of Valdosta.
lake.effect
Member
really doubt the MOD will verify.
keithGA
Member
WxTwitter about to be fun....
- Thread starter
- #1,278
CheeselandSkies
Member
For wind, I could still see it happening, although 60% coverage might be a stretch.
KCweatherboy
Member
I'm NOT saying this will be 4/16/11, but fwiw here's a graphic from the NWS Raleigh event summary of what was being modeled vs. what actually verified that day.
Modeling technology is also significantly better now than it was back then, but there wasn't any consensus between these 2 models regarding storm mode, which I find interesting.
Modeling technology is also significantly better now than it was back then, but there wasn't any consensus between these 2 models regarding storm mode, which I find interesting.
This one was a “bu$t” in terms of my own predictions for the event.
I have noticed, and maybe it’s just recency bias, the SPC as a whole has been very bullish this month. I feel like the new outlook parameters have granted them that kind of latitude. 60% coverage may be a stretch, I agree.