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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

Looks like a very classic wind event for now. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see an uptick in tornadic activity again over Eastern Alabama into Georgia later. Looks like I'll have enough time for a few hours' sleep, so I'm going to try and take advantage.
Yep... local weather app has supercells starting to fire after 2am ET.... And the D1 is out and they forgot about us hahaha

Still waiting on the MD for SE AL...sigh
 
Just have to say this real quick...

Models are doing better than ever. The HRRR specifically impresses me more and more every event and did a great job tonight. Throwing out model output and realtime analysis simply because "it's Dixie! Anything can happen!" is idiotic. Dixie follows the "rules." Because weather is science, not whatever mythical psuedoscience you believe about Dixie alley.

You can argue validity of statements and interpretations, but when your defense is "well its Dixie..." then you aren't contributing anything meaningful.
You seem like a really nice person :) Thank you for showing everyone how to contribute something meaningful.
Schitts Creek Thank You GIF by CBC
 
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We will see if convection in SW AL can mature or it ends up like every other round that's initiating today.

There is still time for this event to verify but for the majority, significant damaging winds have been very sporadic, and the tor threat really hasn't verified. Messy stratiform rain, line orientation, junkvection, too much prefrontal development.

At this point, the HRRR might be right regarding tomorrow. This absolutely shuts down any higher end threat at play and just brings a low end marginal QLCS threat at play. But I would be wary. I still think a higher end event is on the table. Stop taking CAMs for granted.

If the line dies off, a decent event is at play and if it doesn't, well that's basically it. Personally, things are trending towards the messier option.
 
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