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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

viXvi96 said:
Cancelled my plans to drive out to North Alabama to chase. With how things are looking in the Atlanta area, I might as well save the money, and wear and tear on my body, and observe what happens here at home. Trey pointed it out in his latest update, but there's increasing concern about the area from Atlanta to the Florida Panhandle for a localized elevated area of tornado potential, and I'll probably focus on that. Just hate that it'll be moving through in the early morning hours.
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Good luck and be safe! Lots of hills up there.
 
viXvi96 said:
Cancelled my plans to drive out to North Alabama to chase. With how things are looking in the Atlanta area, I might as well save the money, and wear and tear on my body, and observe what happens here at home. Trey pointed it out in his latest update, but there's increasing concern about the area from Atlanta to the Florida Panhandle for a localized elevated area of tornado potential, and I'll probably focus on that. Just hate that it'll be moving through in the early morning hours.
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Has the threat increased in the Atlanta area? I’ve been working Little League all day and haven’t had a chance to check any of the model updates. I saw the SPC extended the Slight risk to the Metro though.
 
Justin Hindman said:
Debating on going to Memphis tomorrow or not, if it’s just gonna be a line, no point, if there is any chance of supercells, it would be worth it
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I chase there a lot Justin pretty flat for Tennessee in that area. Sure you been there. . I am
Jackson just 85 miles east of Memphis . Where I start at for me. There decent chance we get some pre cell out front of the squall . Interesting day shaping up tomorrow
 
Justin Hindman said:
Debating on going to Memphis tomorrow or not, if it’s just gonna be a line, no point, if there is any chance of supercells, it would be worth it
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Stick closer to home, in that case - better chances for that will be in Alabama.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Gabe Garfield saying this makes me feel uneasy. 18z HRRR does tend to suggest some thermodynamic issues that may prevent a more potent sigtor threat but I'll take his word for it
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Gabe is normally one I always trust. He does not normally hyperbolize any forecast and is always genuine with what he thinks may happen. So Monday may end up being a pretty big day.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Trimmer still thinks Memphis area around
North ms. Hot spot overall
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Is he mowing that area tomorrow?

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Gabe Garfield saying this makes me feel uneasy. 18z HRRR does tend to suggest some thermodynamic issues that may prevent a more potent sigtor threat but I'll take his word for it
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The rule of thumb I’ve always followed is CAMs within 24 hours. I’ve seen them flip back and forth far too many times over the years in that 2-4 day range. 3/14/25 was a great example of that last year. The CAMs really didn’t have a good handle on the discrete storm mode until that morning. A lot of it just comes down to getting actual sampling of the system as it comes on shore and get that data ingested into the models.
 
ColdFront said:
Is he mowing that area tomorrow?


The rule of thumb I’ve always followed is CAMs within 24 hours. I’ve seen them flip back and forth far too many times over the years in that 2-4 day range. 3/14/25 was a great example of that last year. The CAMs really didn’t have a good handle on the discrete storm mode until that morning. A lot of it just comes down to getting actual sampling of the system as it comes on shore and get that data ingested into the models.
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Oh, i agree. I think I'll stick with the NAM for now until we get closer although I'm not gonna die on a hill with the NAM. It suggests a potentially high end solution and i don't think it's out of the question for Monday to be a major day.


Quick Ted talk here: I noticed a lot on certain YT streams saying prefrontals weren't likely due to CAMs. It is notoriously known CAMs can be really unusual at the start of their range as they begin to juggle the setup with their several biases.

But CAMs aren't how you forecast prefrontals. You look for convergence zones evident ahead of the line, favorable thermodynamics so that cells can rise.

Too many relying on CAMs when the very man that forecasted a major tornado outbreak when CAMs shifted the general perspective of people only used ECMWF simref and a few other parameters to come to the agreement of "There's gonna be OWS convection"

Monday CONTINUES to look like a potentially high end day regardless of what CAMs say right now.
 
ColdFront said:
Is he mowing that area tomorrow?


The rule of thumb I’ve always followed is CAMs within 24 hours. I’ve seen them flip back and forth far too many times over the years in that 2-4 day range. 3/14/25 was a great example of that last year. The CAMs really didn’t have a good handle on the discrete storm mode until that morning. A lot of it just comes down to getting actual sampling of the system as it comes on shore and get that data ingested into the models.
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Agree 100 percent. Not sure when his latest plans go
Out ….think short range over
Night will be very I lmportant in getting a better idea
 
18z 3km NAM sounding right over my house valid at 8pm Sunday
 

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WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Too many relying on CAMs when the very man that forecasted a major tornado outbreak when CAMs shifted the general perspective of people only used ECMWF simref and a few other parameters to come to the agreement of "There's gonna be OWS convection"
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I was blown away when I saw Broyles do that for 4/2 last year.
 
Honestly not seeing prefrontal convection tomorrow due to a few factors

Even if we do manage to reach 1k SBCAPE tmrw towards that AR/MS/TN border vicinity, i think a sharp warm nose will quickly erode any potential of prefrontals. Regardless, there's still major QLCS potential for significant damaging winds and dozens of QLCS spinups.

I feel like prefrontal convection overall has became heavily less likely with overnight tomorrow but I still expect a potent QLCS event.

I still remain confident in potential prefrontals 4am Monday in SE AL when CAPE increases enough to where that warm nose wouldn't necessarily kill off any updraft but they may need a few boosts to truly mature. A few tornadoes easily possible with this activity.


18z NAM is genuinely impressive. Plenty of instability and volatile shear, combined with large amounts of low level instability in S VA. This has been a wildly consistent trend from the NAM.
 
ColdFront said:
I was blown away when I saw Broyles do that for 4/2 last year.
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Yep, me too. Proves that there is always different ways to sneak out a event and he found the key to 4/2 before any others. I heavily doubt the RRFS was even part of his forecast nor did he even recognise it as a validation of his thinking. Just a brilliant forecast
 
ColdFront said:
The rule of thumb I’ve always followed is CAMs within 24 hours. I’ve seen them flip back and forth far too many times over the years in that 2-4 day range. 3/14/25 was a great example of that last year. The CAMs really didn’t have a good handle on the discrete storm mode until that morning. A lot of it just comes down to getting actual sampling of the system as it comes on shore and get that data ingested into the models.
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Yep, last year's 3/14 and 3/15 very much comes to mind on opposite ends of the CAM-ification spectrum. Generally I like to think of them as very useful to get an idea of what things might look like, but basically advise never using them as anything remotely approaching gospel until within that 18-24 hour range.
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Honestly not seeing prefrontal convection tomorrow due to a few factors

Even if we do manage to reach 1k SBCAPE tmrw towards that AR/MS/TN border vicinity, i think a sharp warm nose will quickly erode any potential of prefrontals. Regardless, there's still major QLCS potential for significant damaging winds and dozens of QLCS spinups.

I feel like prefrontal convection overall has became heavily less likely with overnight tomorrow but I still expect a potent QLCS event.

I still remain confident in potential prefrontals 4am Monday in SE AL when CAPE increases enough to where that warm nose wouldn't necessarily kill off any updraft but they may need a few boosts to truly mature. A few tornadoes easily possible with this activity.


18z NAM is genuinely impressive. Plenty of instability and volatile shear, combined with large amounts of low level instability in S VA. This has been a wildly consistent trend from the NAM.
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Even when depicted on CAMs, prefrontal cells seem to occur fairly rarely in setups like this, and when they do occur, they often tend to just bop around at sub-severe levels until they get eaten by the QLCS. Definitely possible, but I feel like the wording of some WFOs and forecasters that strong tornado potential in the eastern MS into AL/GA region hinges on prefrontals is perhaps a bit misleading - I think there is very much significant tornado potential across the area, but I find it far more likely to come from the QLCS itself than from discrete cells. Not completely discounting the possibility either, I think it could still happen, but it isn't my primary concern. The belief that QLCS tornadoes can't be strong is a weirdly-persistent belief that seems to bias even people who know better, so a lack of discrete convection doesn't make me any less watchful.
 
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