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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

COD (College of Dupage) site has been going down a lot recently
 
FFC mentions low-end chance for tornadoes where the line twists up as it comes through, otherwise just wind/hail/heavy rain. They seem pretty sure the line will stay organized through NW GA and potentially up to the ATL metro (I'd guess about until the eastward extent of the slight risk).
 
Regarding tomorrow, I think I'm going for an initial target of Galesburg, IL. Multiple models seem to be maximizing the parameters there near 0Z Wednesday, and some initiate discrete convection. In addition, just anecdotally there seems to be something about the west side of the Illinois River valley from Beardstown on up to Peoria; multiple notable tornado events have occurred there in recent years.

Screenshot 2026-03-09 150209.png
 
SRH is anticipated to hit a localized maximum this evening in parts of Alabama as storms move through. I could definitely see the possibility of a locally-enhanced tornado risk around I-20.
1773086509877.png
 
Kolle said:
View attachment 51233

Looks like a severe thunderstorm watch is likely by 4pm for North and Central Alabama.
Click to expand...
SPC also leaving the door open to a Tornado Watch. Seems like an SVA more likely, but you never know.
Mesoscale Discussion 0181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Alabama and Mississippi into
southern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 092021Z - 092145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind/hail continues across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 29. Downstream watch issuance will likely be
needed by 21 UTC.

DISCUSSION...An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms across portions of
northern Mississippi and southern Tennessee will continue to pose a
risk for severe hail/wind over the next few hours as it tracks
eastward along a surface warm front. South of this boundary,
continued low-level moist advection amidst filtered diurnal heating
has yielded increasing buoyancy. Coupled with increasing mid-level
flow ahead of a subtle mid-level shortwave trough, the potential
continues to exist for some intensification with this cluster as it
progresses eastward. The greatest potential for intensification is
expected along the southern periphery of the cluster in close
proximity to the surface warm front where 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and
35-45 kts of effective bulk wind shear will continue to support the
potential for some embedded supercell structures along with a risk
of severe wind/hail with stronger updrafts. With time, a modest
strengthening of a southerly, low-level jet may also support the
potential for an isolated tornado. While trends remain a bit
uncertain, a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be
needed in the next hour.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 03/09/2026
Click to expand...
 
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