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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

Kudos to KHUN for using the word "funky" in their forecast discussion this morning. Unfortunately, I did not think to save the post and it has since been updated. They were referring to "funky conditions" contributing to storm development this afternoon. Conditions are indeed funky, so they have gotten the forecast right yet again.

Stay Cool, KHUN; we appreciate all that you do for our community.
 
trulycrabby said:
Kudos to KHUN for using the word "funky" in their forecast discussion this morning. Unfortunately, I did not think to save the post and it has since been updated. They were referring to "funky conditions" contributing to storm development this afternoon. Conditions are indeed funky, so they have gotten the forecast right yet again.

Stay Cool, KHUN; we appreciate all that you do for our community.
Click to expand...
You can go to older discussions on the WFO website by looking at forecast versions on the AFD page - I was able to find the aformentioned forecast for today.
1773091932716.png
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 941 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Current surface observations and satellite imagery show a
widespread area of very low clouds and dense fog encompassing much
of the TN Valley and Mid Mississippi Valley. As such, a Dense Fog
Advisory remains in effect through 10 AM for the whole area.
Through the morning, while fog will lift, broken to overcast cloud
cover looks to remain for much of the day ahead of an approaching
mid level short wave. At the surface, a warm front looks to push
north through Alabama this morning. This, coupled with SSW surface
flow induced from ridging to our SE, will allow dew points to
surge into the mid 60s and temps to rise into the mid 70s. This
will place us well within the open warm sector, directing our
attention to severe weather chances this afternoon.

Storms can already be seen early this morning developing in
eastern Oklahoma moving into Arkansas, supported by the mid level
short wave. Through the day, these storms are forecast to
continue to grow upscale into an organized MCS. Recent HIRES
guidance brings this cluster of storms across our area from west
to east this afternoon from about 1 PM to 9 PM. The warm and moist
boundary layer will support the development of just over 1000
J/KG of CAPE ahead of storm arrival supporting a risk for some
strong to severe storms. Most mesoscale parameters are sufficient
to favorable for severe weather with 15-20 KTS of low level shear
paired with 35-45 KTS of 0-6 KM shear supporting updraft
organization and maintenance. With mid level lapse rates over 7
C/KM, winds of 60 MPH and hail near 1" will be the main threats.
LCLs look to lower as the storms move through. While not a primary
threat, should some funky storm merging occur, a tornado cannot
be ruled out.

While the storm chances will greatly decrease after the sun sets,
low rain chances and overcast conditions look to remain most of
the night. As such, temps won`t be able to cool off much and will
only drop into the low 60s.
Click to expand...
 
Storm west of Toccopola, MS and NW of Amory-Smithville is looking rather suspicious. Not sure what the CC artifact is, but I doubt it's debris.
1773092100305.png
 
Relatively decent 500m SRH is likely helping this supercell to develop nice structure, with an inflow notch visible.
1773092404760.png1773092415069.png
 
Kds86z said:
Click to expand...

TOR-warned and drifting to the east-southeast. @JPWX keep several eyes out for this one.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
443 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Lafayette County in northwestern Mississippi...
Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
West central Lee County in northeastern Mississippi...

* Until 530 PM CDT.

* At 442 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Randolph, or 12 miles west of Pontotoc, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Tupelo, Pontotoc, Trace State Park, Ecru, Randolph, Troy, Furrs,
Sherman, Thaxton, Algoma, Toccopola, Hortontown, Esperanza,
Endville, Cherry Creek, Chiwapa, Pannell, Delay, Rough Edge, and
Nixon.

This includes Interstate 22 in Mississipppi between mile markers 78
and 82.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3418 8936 3436 8931 3435 8877 3408 8882
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 274DEG 32KT 3426 8923

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
Click to expand...
 
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