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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

I'd like to note the DFW metro tomorrow night for a sneaky QLCS tornado risk. HRRR has robust low level shear filling in for the line by 03z. The HRRR even suggests 1k SBCAPE so this QLCS could easily present a sig damaging wind risk along with several tornadoes. Would heavily watch this for any fellow DFW people!
 
bckhd2 said:
Does the bow echo get all the way into GA? Can't access models at work but FFC's discussion seemed to indicate that they think it'll fizzle out around the AL/GA line. I imagine it'll be a primarily LA/MS/AL event.
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It seems very much so, yes. HRRR has it getting well into the ATL Metro before fizzling.
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All the modelling products are really favoring the Lower Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday, and then the Lower Mississippi Valley up northeastward through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. I think it certainly has the potential to be a significant event, but there's still a lot of questions, especially for Day 4, maybe even a little more than usual, cutoff low and all. Eastward extent on Wednesday really seems questionable to me. For the Deep South, it definitely strikes me more as a wind event as it currently stands, but I hesitate to say much, considering the uncertainties.
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Clancy said:
All the modelling products are really favoring the Lower Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday, and then the Lower Mississippi Valley up northeastward through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. I think it certainly has the potential to be a significant event, but there's still a lot of questions, especially for Day 4, maybe even a little more than usual, cutoff low and all. Eastward extent on Wednesday really seems questionable to me. For the Deep South, it definitely strikes me more as a wind event as it currently stands, but I hesitate to say much, considering the uncertainties.
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What's that product supposed to be that resembles a risk map?
 
Clancy said:
All this sunshine will definitely help it along. Feels like a summer day severe setup around here.
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I was about to say, just walked around the block to grab lunch and it was warm and starting to feel a little sticky like it gets in the summer. It cleared out real fast too given how foggy it was this morning. Glad my games are 5:30 and 7:15 tonight and not 8pm.
 
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