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Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8
- Thread starter Sharpy
- Start date
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Supercell is continuing in the WS as we approach morning, and may be recycling something new atm
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Two prefrontal supercells in Arkansas rn. One of them near Stamps catches my attention if it can properly organise its low level meso.
Nvm PDS radar indicated.
Nvm PDS radar indicated.
Anti-Freeze
Member
NWS needs to modify their color scheme to better differentiate tornado warnings from flash flood warnings. They look almost the same shade of red on some radars. Especially when thunder wakes one up in the wee hours...(or wee wee hours for some)....
Looks like a weak/ moderate squall like is going to move through my neck of the woods today.
US_Highway15
Member
Nobody, not even the SPC or local NWS WFO expected or even predicted a lone supercell to produce violent tornadoes across SW Michigan. The main party was suppose to come a few hours later as a basic line of strong to semi-severe storms (which still happened). The 2% was for that line. Not even the weather models showed this happening.
I even tuned in (because Cass and St. Joe County is in my local TV market) thinking this was just gonna be a basic storm cell that just produced a brief tornado, but it just kept on getting stronger, and stronger, and stronger.
US_Highway15
Member
IWX already has a storm summary posted: https://www.weather.gov/iwx/03062026_LowerMichiganTornadoes
This is their environment explanation:
"Despite there only being a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather on March 6th, the environment was favorable for tornadoes in the afternoon. A warm front had stalled across the area the night before and was moving slowly northward throughout the afternoon. By 3 PM EST (20Z), the warm front was located along the Indiana Michigan stateline (Figure 7). A supercell developed just after 3 PM and rode the frontal boundary up into Lower Michigan. Because this supercell was right on the boundary, it was able to tap into enhanced lift and instability. Southerly winds had boosted temperatures into the low to mid 70s across the area and there was ample low level moisture being transported into the area. There was 40-50 kts of shear (Figure 5) and a surface based CAPE gradient of 500-2000 J/kg in the area where the supercell moved across far southern Lower Michigan (Figure 9). There was 200-250 m2/s2 of helicity (spin) in the vicinity of the supercell as well, which likely aided in tornado formation (Figure 1). In the timeframe that tornadoes went through far southern Lower Michigan between 3-4 PM EST, both the Significant (EF2+) and Violent (EF4+) Tornado parameters were maximized (Figures 2 & 3) over far northern Indiana and far southern Lower Michigan. This does NOT mean tornadoes of this magnitude occurred but shows the environment is favorable for this type of intensity."
This is their environment explanation:
"Despite there only being a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather on March 6th, the environment was favorable for tornadoes in the afternoon. A warm front had stalled across the area the night before and was moving slowly northward throughout the afternoon. By 3 PM EST (20Z), the warm front was located along the Indiana Michigan stateline (Figure 7). A supercell developed just after 3 PM and rode the frontal boundary up into Lower Michigan. Because this supercell was right on the boundary, it was able to tap into enhanced lift and instability. Southerly winds had boosted temperatures into the low to mid 70s across the area and there was ample low level moisture being transported into the area. There was 40-50 kts of shear (Figure 5) and a surface based CAPE gradient of 500-2000 J/kg in the area where the supercell moved across far southern Lower Michigan (Figure 9). There was 200-250 m2/s2 of helicity (spin) in the vicinity of the supercell as well, which likely aided in tornado formation (Figure 1). In the timeframe that tornadoes went through far southern Lower Michigan between 3-4 PM EST, both the Significant (EF2+) and Violent (EF4+) Tornado parameters were maximized (Figures 2 & 3) over far northern Indiana and far southern Lower Michigan. This does NOT mean tornadoes of this magnitude occurred but shows the environment is favorable for this type of intensity."
Aaron Rider
Member
Just remember, this was a fairly common sight in Michigan from roughly 1920 through the 60s. I've always wondered what exactly shifted to cause Michigan to have far fewer tornadoes.
Aaron Rider
Member
I know this is subjective. I know it's personal opinion. But I am sure you agreed that thing in Michigan LOOKED violent. The horizontal motion was utterly impressive and terrifying. And some of the damage has the violent (though I'm not saying EF5...) "look" you often describe here.
US_Highway15
Member
I just think some of the deaths are simply from this just not being forecasted as well.
Aaron Rider
Member
I have to say it. Their last sentence illustrates how silly the current situation ratings system is, when they feel the need to editorialize beforehand that the tornadoes may "NOT" (capitalized!) have been violent.
akt1985
Member
I know this is off topic, but I remember hearing on a Weather Brains podcast the survey team of NWS Northern Indiana went out to survey damage from a possible tornado that hit an Amish community but had a lot of trouble surveying the damage because the Amish already rebuilt a lot of the homes before the survey team could get there.
CheeselandSkies
Member
The Palm Sunday outbreak of April 1965 has always been a particular source of interest for me not only because of its intensity, but its spatial distribution - violent tornadoes from Iowa all the way to western Lake Erie, quite a wide area W-E, but not so much N-S. The Midwest/Great Lakes in general haven't really seen a regional outbreak on that scale since. 5/31/85 was perhaps similar but displaced even further east.
CheeselandSkies
Member
US_Highway15
Member
Yep lol That's definitely accurate. I work at a business in Middlebury IN, so a lot of my customers are the amish, and they're crazy lol
Grand Poo Bah
Member
Yeah wtf. That’s so weird. What the hell is wrong with them? It’s even worse because the watch they had in place was for tornadoes of <95 mph. Its perfectly ok to underrate tornadoes before they even happen, but god forbid you tell people one was violent afterwards. We all have eyes. It doesn’t matter what the rating is, we saw it was violent.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Given the notable nature and resulting extensive discussion of the event from Thursday evening through yesterday/this morning, I've created a new thread for discussion of the potentially active days next week:
Ozonelayer
Member
Considering how yesterday panned out in Michigan with their risk, I've taken the liberty to tell my family about how risk colors dont particularly matter when involving a warm front, since it can essentially boost any storms its near.
Heres hoping it doesn't happen again today up here in PA.
Heres hoping it doesn't happen again today up here in PA.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Completely swept homes in Union City.
akt1985
Member
It looks like the last F4 tornado in Michigan was 50 years ago back in 1976 in West Broomfield near Detroit.