• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8

Not to seem harsh or disrespectful but I still think criticism can be warranted for Broyles regardless of the major successes he's had recently. He's a great forecaster but Friday is very different to 4/2 in the way that we had good model agreement, multiple models on board with a potent scenario. I really don't agree with the D4 30% but I trust the man because he is one of the most well thought out meteorologists at the SPC.

But harsh and outright poor criticism is different and I've seen a lot say "Ugh Broyles is being bullish pack it up" without any reasoning to why they disagree! It's fine to disagree with people, but you have to have a certain basis and view to it instead of just going "Eh I just think he's bullish"

I might consider asking Broyles what caused the D4 30%. I've got some bet it's on the jet translation speed and inside tools he uses at the SPC
 
You know now that I think about my emails with Broyles, he mentioned 4/14/12 as a particular surprise event to most although models weren't showing supercells firing i a potent environment, he still went with the high risk plus there was substantial model disagreement. This setup won't be like 4/14/12 in any way but I think now I can see the D4 30% if he's worked a Plains dryline with major disagreement. Maybe there's some sort of pattern recognition or anticipation for this event that he's seeing
 
A lot of people seem to forget the SPC has access to models and tools that we don't, and they've repeatedly trended a day or two ahead of the GFS and Euro with their forecasts. Regardless of whether we thought they've been too bullish or bearish multiple days out, more times than not, the reasoning becomes clear as the event gets closer, and they haven't been wrong much.

All that being said. The ensembles seem to be trending more bullish on the 18z for both Thursday and Friday

1772578428656.png1772578492734.png
1772578618302.png1772578642738.png
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
You know now that I think about my emails with Broyles, he mentioned 4/14/12 as a particular surprise event to most although models weren't showing supercells firing i a potent environment, he still went with the high risk plus there was substantial model disagreement. This setup won't be like 4/14/12 in any way but I think now I can see the D4 30% if he's worked a Plains dryline with major disagreement. Maybe there's some sort of pattern recognition or anticipation for this event that he's seeing
Click to expand...

You've got a point about the dryline. It has definitely trended much sharper since I last looked.

1772579093742.gif
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
A lot of people seem to forget the SPC has access to models and tools that we don't, and they've repeatedly trended a day or two ahead of the GFS and Euro with their forecasts. Regardless of whether we thought they've been too bullish or bearish multiple days out, more times than not, the reasoning becomes clear as the event gets closer, and they haven't been wrong much.

All that being said. The ensembles seem to be trending more bullish on the 18z for both Thursday and Friday

View attachment 50922View attachment 50923
View attachment 50924View attachment 50925
Click to expand...
Broyles is top notch and I can certainly take being on the side to disagree with him but I've got a bit of trust that things will go his way. I think this outlook is ahead of the curve right now and it's gonna make sense when we get closer. I still have skepticism over how Friday will unfold but if a scenario like the NAM continues then I'm sounding the alarms for a interesting one.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Broyles is top notch and I can certainly take being on the side to disagree with him but I've got a bit of trust that things will go his way. I think this outlook is ahead of the curve right now and it's gonna make sense when we get closer. I still have skepticism over how Friday will unfold but if a scenario like the NAM continues then I'm sounding the alarms for a interesting one.
Click to expand...
haven't looked at the nam yet, is it over/under on the severity compared to gfs?
 
Yes...definitely plan on moving north when I retire. I grew up in New England so I am so miserable here in Alabama. I prefer a short summer and a LONG winter. If I had enough money, I would go to the southern hemisphere every summer and literally be in the "winter" season year round.
tennessee storm chaser said:
I hear it’s pretty cold in Alaska at the moment , ever considered ?
Click to expand...
 
cyelle21 said:
Yes...definitely plan on moving north when I retire. I grew up in New England so I am so miserable here in Alabama. I prefer a short summer and a LONG winter. If I had enough money, I would go to the southern hemisphere every summer and literally be in the "winter" season year round.
Click to expand...
At one point I used to be very scared of cold winters because of a video game called Frostpunk, it didn't help that the temps they hit (-20C to -30C) we could hit pretty easily over here in a January arctic blast.

Then I got over it because I learned tornadoes are terrifying over here.
 
I love broyles. I have just followed SPC forecasts for many years and he does seem to be the more bullish forecaster. I am not into forecasting by any means or know a lot. Just have seen the T word mentioned a lot of times only to be brought down later by the rest of the SPC. I always look for the forecaster after him to see what they say and if there is consensus before I think he’s overreacting.
 
HRRR simulates a organized damaging wind/QLCS segment tomorrow in SE MO late on around 02z-03z. Combined with strong LLJ + ample streamwise + line orientation, few spinups and conditional sig damaging wind if bookend vortex feature can develop is plausible. Wouldn't be surprised to see that area produce a few spinnies
 
GXSC said:
At one point I used to be very scared of cold winters because of a video game called Frostpunk, it didn't help that the temps they hit (-20C to -30C) we could hit pretty easily over here in a January arctic blast.

Then I got over it because I learned tornadoes are terrifying over here.
Click to expand...
I drove 900 miles from Wichita, KS to Langdon, ND to feel a -57F wind chill on January 22, 2026. The Cobblestone Inn was a very nice hotel. We'll back to severe weather and am ready for some big surprises this season.
 
The most recent GFS run actually looks pretty solid for Friday on the northern end of the setup. If something like that verifies, I could see it being a solid early-season event with perhaps some isolated significant tornado potential.

Something like this compact, negatively-tilted wave with a jet streak rounding the base at peak heating is one of the major elements I look for before anything else.

Screenshot 2026-03-03 192556.png

However, there's still a fair bit of disagreement. Same run of the NAM is quite a bit flatter with that wave.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
The most recent GFS run actually looks pretty solid for Friday on the northern end of the setup. If something like that verifies, I could see it being a solid early-season event with perhaps some isolated significant tornado potential.

Something like this compact, negatively-tilted wave with a jet streak rounding the base at peak heating is one of the major elements I look for before anything else.

View attachment 50930

However, there's still a fair bit of disagreement. Same run of the NAM is quite a bit flatter with that wave.
Click to expand...
Depends on if anything can get rooted in time. That cold front is gonna come crashing south with some speed.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top