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2/19/26- 2/20/26 - severe threat discussion

UncleJuJu98 said:
'Nother high shear low cape squall for Alabama and Mississippi with a few spin ups?
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nah. This is Midwest focused.


Subsidence is the major problem with this risk in IL/IN. Very warm 500 mb temperatures are becoming evident regardless of the cool bias from the NAM. People are putting too much credit into the RRFS with this, It's been bullish and several models have depicted this stubborn height falls scenario. Instability could uptrend but even the SPC said cells may not produce LIGHTNING despite the slight risk. Extremely unusual setup. And things are looking pretty conditional with this risk being honest if such warm air aloft continues with a lack of good moisture return.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
nah. This is Midwest focused.


Subsidence is the major problem with this risk in IL/IN. Very warm 500 mb temperatures are becoming evident regardless of the cool bias from the NAM. People are putting too much credit into the RRFS with this, It's been bullish and several models have depicted this stubborn height falls scenario. Instability could uptrend but even the SPC said cells may not produce LIGHTNING despite the slight risk. Extremely unusual setup. And things are looking pretty conditional with this risk being honest if such warm air aloft continues with a lack of good moisture return.
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Yeah agree. Leaning into RRFS
 
Hot off the press latest d3:



..LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/PSEUDO DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEGREE/QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE KEY IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS (TUESDAY) FROM SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY
MODEST MOIST LAYER ALONG THE GULF COAST. A MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOO QUICKLY FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN. THE SURFACE PATTERN ON THURSDAY
WILL BE MORE ROBUST, BUT DEEPER MOISTURE MAY STILL NOT REACH FAR
ENOUGH NORTH GIVEN THAT MID 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CENTRAL GULF CURRENTLY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 50S F
DEWPOINTS ARE MOST PROBABLE, WHICH DOES SEEM REASONABLE. THAT SAID,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL NOT BE OVERLY COLD AND LAPSE RATES WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STEEP. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONVECTION THAT MAY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LOW TOPPED IN NATURE. DESPITE LIMITING FACTORS WITHIN THE
ENVIRONMENT, 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ROUGHLY PERPENDICULAR TO
THE BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR DISCRETE STORMS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
INCREASING WITH TIME AS WELL. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF FEW TORNADOES,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..WENDT.. 02/17/2026
 
I think something interesting to note, is cips is rather high on Tennessee for this event. A bit of southern shift into the Tennessee valley could occur.
PRALLC05_namF060.png
 
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18z HRRR came in and imo, the best target is SE IL/SW IN. Problem is that it depicts a robust warm nose and poor 500s, which would mean likely no storm development. I would closely watch trends though. NAM has been crap handling this, save for the warm 500s.
 
WaryWarren said:
@CheeselandSkies

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If it weren't for that pesky warming aloft, it'd be a nice setup. Normally the winter setups that produce are the ones that have cold air aloft overspreading the surface moistening, and normally that's not so hard to get seeing as it's, you know, winter, but that seems to have been a recurring them recently. Hope that doesn't continue into the spring.
 
If I'm being honest, tomorrow does feature potential for significant tornadoes in S IL moving east into SW IN. The question is will warming aloft dismantle any supercell that attempts to go up? I have questions but moisture should be enough past 4pm to fire storms and then can they reach their EL? Also note the surface inversion. Cells will need a way to go surface based.


(i have a AWFUL lot of weather related tabs open LOL)
 

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WeathermanLeprechaun said:
If I'm being honest, tomorrow does feature potential for significant tornadoes in S IL moving east into SW IN. The question is will warming aloft dismantle any supercell that attempts to go up? I have questions but moisture should be enough past 4pm to fire storms and then can they reach their EL? Also note the surface inversion. Cells will need a way to go surface based.


(i have a AWFUL lot of weather related tabs open LOL)
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Can't say I disagree much. Though I'd say I'm a little more bullish.

Maybe a little later after 4 PM the surface inversion should weaken enough to promote a one to even a few sigtors through that corridor as storms go surface based? The inversion doesn't look particularly strong by any means.
 
Ozonelayer said:
Can't say I disagree much. Though I'd say I'm a little more bullish.

Maybe a little later after 4 PM the surface inversion should weaken enough to promote a one to even a few sigtors through that corridor as storms go surface based? The inversion doesn't look particularly strong by any means.
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But it comes down to the warming aloft as well. It's not a guarantee storms sustain. It's pretty conditional but it's there.
 
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