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2/19/26- 2/20/26 - severe threat discussion

WeathermanLeprechaun

WeathermanLeprechaun

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Outlined D4 15%

"Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone,
centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the
period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates
across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great
Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable,
latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night
concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the
vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It
now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as
high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may
advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower
Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though
still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the
order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe
thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient
deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized
convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce
tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to
severe gusts for a period Thursday evening"
 

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Well that's just delightful. Is there a chance the central part of Ohio gets anything? I know the Tri-State area was outlined, but still worth an ask.
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
Well that's just delightful. Is there a chance the central part of Ohio gets anything? I know the Tri-State area was outlined, but still worth an ask.
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Don't really think instability manages to reach up there but it is after all winter so maybe just watch for some uptrends thermodynamically. Not seeing anything for Central OH though atm
 
N0mz said:
Euro 00z is a little slower and gets a little more amped and negative, but also comes through at like 6AM, terrible timing
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I know a place where you can view the 06z and it does have a localised area of 500/850 mb overlap in SE IL. If thermos can get to around 1k with the kinematics the Euro has, I would say it could be a sneakier day in the Midwest with any cell that forms
 
Well. I don't know if models are just stubborn on CI but it almost screams 3/19 last year to me. This is the robust/bullish RRFS so just take it with a grain of salt m
 

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Probably gonna extend that 15% risk southward into MS and Alabama
 
Nobody corrected me on the wrong year in the title!

CheeselandSkies said:
There's still an area of steep low-level lapse rates/high 0-3KM MLCAPE overlapped with strong low-level shear along that warm front in Illinois. That would be my target if I decide it looks good enough (if I say nah and don't go it'll produce for sure).
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I completely expect the NAM to trend again. Those RRFS signals have been interesting.
 
akt1985 said:
Right now James Spann is not that impressed with a severe weather risk for Alabama this Friday/Saturday. Just a lot of rain instead, which would be good for easing the drought.
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Ensembles are suggesting a threat on Saturday though. If he's talking late Friday into Saturday morning then I agree.

12z NAM not suggesting much CAPE with this system but the main areas do appear to be in the SE IL/SW IN range to me. Models still stubborn on CI and I'm not really trusting the RRFS until we get better agreement on that WF region. Still a system with potential for a few tornadoes.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Ensembles are suggesting a threat on Saturday though. If he's talking late Friday into Saturday morning then I agree.

12z NAM not suggesting much CAPE with this system but the main areas do appear to be in the SE IL/SW IN range to me. Models still stubborn on CI and I'm not really trusting the RRFS until we get better agreement on that WF region. Still a system with potential for a few tornadoes.
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It doesn't take much this time of year, especially if most of it is concentrated in the low levels. Keep in mind, the NAM has a cool bias, as well. If the temperatures verify a few degrees warmer than it depicts, it would increase the instability and reduce the CINH.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
It doesn't take much this time of year, especially if most of it is concentrated in the low levels. Keep in mind, the NAM has a cool bias, as well. If the temperatures verify a few degrees warmer than it depicts, it would increase the instability and reduce the CINH.
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Oh, it isn't that. The system very much still has potential amidst low instability. NAM is still very stubborn on CI and there's a lot of experimental CAMs that suggest this same idea. Height falls across the warm sector are a issue unless the front is more progressive. It's dependant on how much instability we can get. Height falls has been a alert to me since they outlined it. If we just don't reach adequate instability, there's a chance we DONT really fire but i can't see that happening. NAM had 1k SBCAPE yesterday so it's just going thru its typical downtrend period atm. If a scenario like the RRFS happens with very impressive thermos for February, then we'd have a decent event on our hands. Things are still very unusually difficult to place with this system, and models are definitely struggling. A few tornadoes though are definitely in the cards
 
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