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Severe Weather 2026

Anyone else having trouble getting pictures to load? I had a graphic to go with my last post, but it wouldn't load properly
 
hello i saw or am seeing at least yesterday about this years snowpack being below average for places out west apparently or supposedly and how it can effect the eml or elevated mixed layer source region again apparently or supposedly i know that the eml is important for having a cap in place and not really sure what else but i was just wondering what that means for the eml source region
 
KakashiHatake2000 said:
hello i saw or am seeing at least yesterday about this years snowpack being below average for places out west apparently or supposedly and how it can effect the eml or elevated mixed layer source region again apparently or supposedly i know that the eml is important for having a cap in place and not really sure what else but i was just wondering what that means for the eml source region
Click to expand...
 
KakashiHatake2000 said:
hello i saw or am seeing at least yesterday about this years snowpack being below average for places out west apparently or supposedly and how it can effect the eml or elevated mixed layer source region again apparently or supposedly i know that the eml is important for having a cap in place and not really sure what else but i was just wondering what that means for the eml source region
Click to expand...
@WeathermanLeprechaun
 
KakashiHatake2000 said:
hello i saw or am seeing at least yesterday about this years snowpack being below average for places out west apparently or supposedly and how it can effect the eml or elevated mixed layer source region again apparently or supposedly i know that the eml is important for having a cap in place and not really sure what else but i was just wondering what that means for the eml source region
Click to expand...
Where did you see this? If it was on a recent community post by Trey, then i know that guy

what it would mean is that events could be easily more capped and it could mean a tendency for big time events to always leave a stubborn cap. But on the other hand, it may also mean lesser junkvection in events.

I don't really get into seasonal forecasting because last year, the Plains was set to be below average or barely average and something changed rapidly l late April that caused a favorable pattern for around two weeks that May for our sig outbreaks. And nuclear EML/warm nose events can be defeated (eg June 20th) but it can play a portion into the season and we'll see if it does. Hopefully less destruction this year...


I may not be exactly right on this being honest since I'm tired but it's my best guess and some portion should be accurate. I have totally lost my voice due to a bad cold I'm having and having a bit of a poor night. Hope this helps!
 
KakashiHatake2000 said:
oh okay i see gotcha thank you weatherman leprechaun appreciate it also hope you feel better soon and get voice back also get some sleep or can take naps
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No worries, and appreciate it. Drinking a good amount of water and probably gonna head to sleep in a few minutes after I've analysed my snow chances over in the other side of the North Atlantic. Definitely gonna be resting a lot
 
Kds86z said:
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Yeah, GFS has not let go of that setup for next Thursday and now the Euro is on board as well. Now looks to be quite a bit further west/southwest than depicted by the GFS a few days ago (NE/KS rather than IA), so the question is is my SDS (storm/supercell deprivation syndrome) bad enough to make a Plains run in FEBRUARY?

Forecast hodographs on the 12Z GFS look great. Moisture is seasonably modest but doable given the forecast depth and LCL. Hmmmm...
 
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