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Severe Weather 2026

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
The NAM is in range for Thursday, and i wouldn't exactly say it's a great environment for CI. But thermodynamics are at least there plus the shear. Some sort of severe threat albeit conditional does exist. Strong low level shear plus discrete shear vectors
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O yeah, I will take that look on the NAM for Thursday. Especially for February.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun

Thread '2/19/26- 2/20/26 - severe threat discussion'

Outlined D4 15%

"Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone,
centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the
period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates
across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great
Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable,
latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night
concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the
vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It
now appears that this may...
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Here is the thread. Discussion for the potential svr threat Saturday will continue here unless outlined soon by the SPC
 
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Not necessarily severe weather related, but given I can't find another thread I'll just post it here - the SPC has outlined an extremely critical (wildfire equivalent of a high risk) risk for wildfires for tomorrow. These aren't issued often; the last time we had one was December of last year, and the one before that was in April.
 
The signal for the February 21-22 period is pretty darn strong at this point. Do we plan to put this possible event in the same thread as the 2/19 one? If not, it will likely need its own thread, if trends continue.
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Clancy said:
The signal for the February 21-22 period is pretty darn strong at this point. Do we plan to put this possible event in the same thread as the 2/19 one? If not, it will likely need its own thread, if trends continue.
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There won't be much of note on the 20th so i think it's fair this gets a seperate thread. But I do agree, some sort of signal for something (potentially sig?) is there.
 
Saturday continues to show signals for severe weather on the GFS. The day has remained thermodynamically decent and the kinematics are there too. I would expect uptrends if this event holds but overall, this weekend could get interesting.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Saturday continues to show signals for severe weather on the GFS. The day has remained thermodynamically decent and the kinematics are there too. I would expect uptrends if this event holds but overall, this weekend could get interesting.
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This time of year, systems consistently depicted with instability are very much worth keeping a close eye on.
 
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an
initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region
at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a
supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the
south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson
Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of
the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued,
with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic
through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern
periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.

Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave
perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing
progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of
the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it
could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps
upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could
pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While
severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than
15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could
change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.
 
The GEFS mean suggests some svr weather threat on Saturday. Once again, severity and magnitude is still gonna be unknown until we get into Thursday or so. Still think plenty of disagreement with this system.
 

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Should I go ahead and pull the trigger on a thread for the 21st-22nd timeframe?
 
Still lots of variations for the weekend - deterministic GFS/ECMWF both have a less amplified solution compared to their AI counterparts - this will have a significant impact on the surface reflection and shear/kinematics. Thermodynamics looks pretty decent though.

I personally wouldn't pull the trigger on a thread just yet
 
Still plenty of uncertainty for our 2/21 system. Globals are depicting a system with pretty zonal flow which undercuts moisture return. The latest GFS shows it getting a little more well-defined by Sunday morning, but by then convection is mostly done. If that change were to happen sooner, that could signal a more substantial threat. For now, though, just too many questions to be sure about specific areas and specific intensities. SPC is watching it, mentions adding outlook areas later, but certainty too low at the moment.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 170950
SPC AC 170950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an
initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region
at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a
supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the
south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson
Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of
the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued,
with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic
through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern
periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.

Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave
perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing
progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of
the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it
could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps
upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could
pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While
severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than
15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could
change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.

Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern
mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week
appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the
Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent
regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface
ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies,
through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and
stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential
through the remainder of the period.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
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