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January 23-25th Winter Wx

12z Euro so far is pretty different, not showing the frozen precip starting in Georgia until early Sunday morning. And then highs in the 50s.
 
Anything for Central Ohio during this? I can't read winter weather maps and never trust the official temperature estimates; up here it can go from 20 to 60 in a disturbingly short time.
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
Anything for Central Ohio during this? I can't read winter weather maps and never trust the official temperature estimates; up here it can go from 20 to 60 in a disturbingly short time.
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12z GFS has 6+ inches of snow in Columbus. Other models seem to be getting more on board with at least some snow in central Ohio from the looks of it, perhaps it's a result of the northward trend of the storm in the models over the past 24 hours. I'd bet on Columbus getting at least 4 inches of snow though.
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
Anything for Central Ohio during this? I can't read winter weather maps and never trust the official temperature estimates; up here it can go from 20 to 60 in a disturbingly short time.
Click to expand...
European model dumps snow on you (8+inches), 06Z GFS has the heavier band further south, giving you just a couple of inches.
 
Blountwolf said:
European model dumps snow on you (8+inches), GFS has the heavier band further south, giving you just a couple of inches.
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So basically a 50/50 of either snowmageddon or average weekend. Yay.
 
Let's back up and take the ole' 40,000ft view of things.

Variables:
1. Big cold air mass.
2. Big warm air mass
3. Boundary between them
4. Low pressure to form and move west to east, pulling warm moisture up into the cold air mass.

So things to watch/nowcast and compare to models over the next couple of days:

1. Strength of the cold. Are temps colder or warmer under that air mass than forecast?
2. Strength of the warm air mass. Same as the cold - eyes on the model forecast vs. reality.
3. North or south shifts of where the "fight" will take place, which is determined by:
4. The path of the low.

Now those are of course what the models themselves will be adjusting for as they ingest more real-world data, but we can certainly enjoy the process of checking those against reality ourselves still. I find I learn a lot that way - an "Oh! That's why the models are saying that!" is often the outcome, but then I know more about the weather.
 
N4GKS said:
Are you saying that’s looking like almost an inch of ice?
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According to them, yes. Could be less, or more. I hope the warm nose comes farther north.

"By the end of
this storm, most of north Mississippi has a greater than 50%
chance of 0.50" of ice accumulation. Even more concerning is
probabilities for greater than 0.75" of ice continue to hover
around 40-45% in northeast Mississippi"

A 45% chance of ,75 of ice. My apologies.
 
Winter Storm Watches out for parts of North Georgia.
1000004992.png
 
N4GKS said:
Are you saying that’s looking like almost an inch of ice?
Click to expand...
K
Smokedevil said:
According to them, yes. Could be less, or more. I hope the warm nose comes farther north.
Click to expand...
I’m glad I’ve got my generator full. I wonder if North Alabama is gonna get hit bad? They keep changing the map.
 
Recent Euro runs have subtly shifted south with the Baja mid-level low, not sure how recon data will change that but it's one reason to not be confident those north shifts in the 32° line will hold if the energy and resulting Gulf low trend a little slower or south, line might come back south a little at some point
 
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