Jason Mills
Member
The Tropical Tidbits image at the top says it includes sleet, so that probably accounts for a lot of the difference. Pivotal Weather has a good guide that goes over how they calculate winter precipitation.
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January 23-25th Winter Wx
- Thread starter UncleJuJu98
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The Tropical Tidbits image at the top says it includes sleet, so that probably accounts for a lot of the difference. Pivotal Weather has a good guide that goes over how they calculate winter precipitation.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
MEG using the "historic" word now
I mean - not far from. Line of thunderstorms anyone? Trip to the beach in shorts?
The GFS has FL panhandle temps in the mid 70s during the CAD-fueled ice storm in GA.
It's all about the track of the low.
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Jason Mills
Member
It's crazy we went from the 12z suite yesterday to now - maybe a few rumbles of thunder in SE Alabama anyone?
Anti-Freeze
Member
Prepare to be without trees for months or longer
Equus
Member
Well we can wait for the D1 exploding tree outlook from the SPC just to be sure
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I often ask myself do I prefer the smell of freshly snapped pine by tornado or ice storm.
Casie
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Kds86z
Member
Makes you wonder how much modeling even helps, if expectations can range from ice storm to thunderstorms within a few runs
And bham sitting at... <checks map>
...62 on that... lol
I'm not sure this scenario makes the most sense, but I'll take it if it happens.
...62 on that... lol
I'm not sure this scenario makes the most sense, but I'll take it if it happens.
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Which is why the track of the low is key. You can, and often do, have major tornado outbreaks in the warm sector of a storm system and on the northwestern side have large blizzards.
The reason it’s flipping like that is because it’s displaying the effect the low placement is having on the areas.
Equus
Member
The potential temperature range for Sunday morning being anywhere from 25 to 65 across central AL does not make trying to plan for the precip type at a given point any easier
As someone who has been watching these systems for decades as models came into existence - they absolutely help. These systems are like unicorns though - rare enough that the models really don't have as much to work with in terms of analogs, so they struggle with the same factors the humans do - lots of variables to consider. But do computers GREATLY help attempting to take all those variables into account? Absolutely.
Yeah, it gives you a parameter of what COULD happen. Just frustration from a snow-lover originally from New York in Texas though
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
If runs stay like that, there's a sneaky line for maybe some small svr threat in SE AL. This is all dependant on the low however and things may trend again to how they were jsut yesterday. It's brutal to try forecast winter systems, especially one of this magnitude
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Watch northwest Alabama have a absolute ice storm and then southeast Alabama have tornadoes lol
The ECMWF model moved a bit south in the 12z run? Or am I seeing it wrong.
I'm not at all convinced in the modeling of the low track. If we really do get a flatter system, it's not going to track that far up and then reform off the carolina coast on the other side of the CAD, it will take the path of least resistance across N FL/ S GA, under the CAD, not barrel through or north of the high. Could be that it's one low crashing against the high and another forming off the coast, but I really wonder about that solution. Seems a bit too extreme to be correct, but maybe I'm just questioning the sigh of relief that I'm no longer under the gun. That one prediction being off just slightly will make all the difference in this system though.